Article thumbnail of a French submarine hosted at Faslane, 28/10/2021, courtesy of the France’s UK Embassy

On 15 September 2021, Australia, the United States (US), and the United Kingdom (UK) jointly announced the formation of a new security and defence pact named “AUKUS” for the Indo-Pacific region. They had been in talks for the past 18 months. Among other things, the US and the UK are helping Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines. As a result, Australia cancelled on the same day, without notice, the $90 billion French-Australian submarine deal it signed in 2016. Yet, on 30 August, French and Australian officials released a joint communiqué that emphasised the importance of the Future Submarine programme. In other words, France was kept in the dark over the AUKUS deal. It infuriated the French President Emmanuel Macron who recalled his ambassadors from Washington and Canberra for consultations. He refused to take calls from the Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and threatened to delay EU-Australia trade talks. The French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian qualified the decision as a “stab in the back” and accused the three countries of “duplicity, a major breach of trust and contempt.” The Australian-French relationship appeared to be at its lowest by the end of September. 

However, it reached an “unprecedented new low” on 31 October after Emmanuel Macron accused Scott Morrison of being a liar and on 2 November following the leak, by Australian officials, of a text message between Macron and Morrison that implied Macron knew about the collapse of the French-Australian submarine deal. 

Asked on Sunday, 31 October on the last day of the G20 summit in Rome if he thought Morrison had lied to him, Macron replied: “I don’t think, I know.” The accusation angered the Australian government. Morrison denied lying to Macron, saying: “I was very clear that the conventional submarines were not going to be able to meet our strategic interests.” When asked if he told Macron that Australia was seeking to buy nuclear-powered submarines from the US or UK, Morrison replied that he did not because it was confidential. The situation escalated further on Tuesday, 2 November. Australian officials leaked a private text message sent by Macron to Morrison. Sent two days before the contract cancellation and the AUKUS announcement, it reads: “Should I expect good or bad news for our joint submarine ambitions?” The leak was part of Morrison’s defence that Macron knew about the cancellation. 

Both moves have been criticised and qualified as undiplomatic by government officials and commentators alike, but it is the text message leak that seems to worry people the most. To some, the move reflects “very inelegant methods” and “crossed a threshold.” The retaliation against Macron’s accusation questions whether Australia can be fully trusted. Will personal exchanges of leaders and allies be leaked by the Australian government to be used against them? It is a question Australia’s allies and neighbours might ask themselves when they decide to cooperate with Canberra. If they deem Australia to be untrustworthy, the island-continent could end up isolated on the international stage and in the Pacific. It is an inconceivable option for Canberra as it seeks to counter China’s growing influence in the region by stepping up its engagement in the Pacific. 

As of now, Morrison refuses to apologise to France for its handling of the submarine deal. Macron will not be the one to make the first move either since he believes France has been betrayed. Their national (and personal) pride is at stake, and it appears they will do anything they can to defend it. It seems unlikely either head of state will attempt to make peace before spring 2022. Indeed, France will elect its new President in April 2022 and the Australian federal election will occur a month later. Only with a change of government or an apology from Scott Morrison will we witness an easing of tensions. It is to their advantage to end their diplomatic row and regain a friendly relationship as soon as possible. The Indo-Pacific region is crucial to both states as they happen to have direct access to the Indian and Pacific Oceans thanks to their overseas territories or their seaboards. It represents political, economic, and security opportunities and challenges for both countries. However, their common struggle to protect their populations, their desire to closely cooperate on the implementation of their respective Indo-Pacific strategies, and ambition to promote a rules-based order in the region is jeopardised by what could be deemed as the fight of ego between Paris and Canberra.