Article thumbnail of demonstrators protesting the military coup in Myanmar, 09/02/2021, courtesy of Wikipedia Commons

Myanmar was plunged into chaos following the Military’s seizure of power against the country’s democratically elected and ruling party - the National League for Democracy (NLD) - on 1st February 2021.

An Uncertain Future

Since then, many of NLD’s members, including the leader Aung San Suu Kyi, have been arrested, whilst a series of protests and strikes have taken place across the country. The Tatmadaw - Myanmar’s armed forces - are brutally attempting to crackdown anti-coup demonstrators, with a current death toll of over 780 according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners.

Opponents to the military rule have established a National Unity Government (NUG), featured by a ‘people’s defence force’ to protect its supporters from military attacks and violence instigated by the junta.

Recently considered as a successful catch-up story, Myanmar’s economic prospects are set to worsen. With Foreign Direct Investment commitments into the country worth $5.5bn in the 2020 fiscal year, businesses say that the coup has put billions worth of foreign investment at risk, as many companies may soon leave worried about instability and reputational damage. This has already been the case with some major conglomerates, such as Japanese brewer Kirin Holdings which has withdrawn from a joint-venture with Myanmar Economic Holdings Limited (MEHL), owned by the Burmese military.

Others have come under fire, as it is the case with Total. The French energy giant has been allegedly accused by Le Monde of financing the military through ties with Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE), a state-owned company under the generals’ control. Activist Group Justice for Myanmar have called Total to ‘immediately suspend all payments to the military junta and place funds in a protected account until democracy is restored in Myanmar’.

Already in 2019, the UN recommended businesses to stop commercial ties with the Military’s conglomerates MEHL and Myanmar Economic Corporation (MEC), given the high risk of contributing to violations of human rights law and international humanitarian law. This followed the International Court of Justice (ICJ) accusations to the Tatmadaw of genocide towards the Rohingyas Muslims in the country.

The EU, UK and the US have imposed sanctions to key members of the military responsible for the coup.  Meanwhile, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) - of which Myanmar is a member - is sending a special envoy in an attempt to peacefully de-escalate the Burmese crisis. However, the Southeast Asian bloc is being criticised by human rights groups for meeting last April with military coup leader Min Aung Hlaing - although not recognising him as Myanmar’s head of state - and not inviting any NUG officials.

If instability lasts too long, the country, featured by a history of difficult cohabitation among its more than 130 ethnicities, could spiral in all out and fragmented civil war. Uncertainty looms over the future of Myanmar.