With a third of the country under water and 33 million people directly affected, Pakistan is reeling from the effects of a “monsoon on steroids”. A quick look at the numbers illustrates just how devastating the flash floods have been:

• 1200+ death toll, a third of which are children

• 12,500 so far reported injured

• 735,000 livestock lost

• 325,000 houses destroyed

• 733,000 house damaged

• 2 million acres of crops impacted

• 3,000 kilometres of road affected

• And over 100 bridges swept away

According to early estimates, the damage wrought by the floods amounts to $10 billion, and given that the forecast predicts rain well into September, we can expect to see this figure continue to rise. In terms of geographical scope, the most severely affected regions are those adjoining the Indus and Kabul rivers, primarily in the southern districts of Balochistan and Sindh, as well as the northern mountainous state of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

How did Pakistan get here?

Given that the intensity of rainfall in August has been estimated to be 780% above the average, the most obvious culprit for the calamity is climate change. The causal mechanism being suggested is that the lethal heat waves in South Asia this summer have resulted in an abnormal monsoon season as warmer air holds more moisture. Indeed, with temperatures rising above 40 °C for extended periods, meteorologists in Islamabad had warned of the “above normal” levels of rain likely to come. Another direct outcome of such high temperatures was an increased rate of glacial melt in Pakistan’s northern regions. While it is difficult to quantify just how much these melts have contributed to the floods, it is indisputable that they too played a pivotal role in saturating Pakistan’s rivers with several glacial lakes bursting. To compound these effects, it is believed that there was also a “depression,” i.e., a system of intense low air pressure in the Arabian Sea which brought monsoon clouds to Pakistan’s coastal areas earlier than usual. Together these climatic factors contributed to the flash floods with the first two closely linked with anthropogenic climate change.

Given that Pakistan is responsible for only 0.4% of the world’s historic CO2 emissions and consistently ranks among the top 10 climate-vulnerable countries, a key issue going forward will be regarding whose responsibility it is to help build climate resilience in the country. Planning minister, Ahsan Iqbal, has lost no time in attributing the ongoing disaster to the "irresponsible development of the developed world" and maintains that the international community should help build climate-resilient infrastructure. Indeed, such questions of who ought to pay for “loss and damage” in vulnerable countries have been a recurring issue in climate change summits. However, the international community is yet to present an enforcement mechanism with major players like the US and EU actively lobbying against such a measure. Given this context, it will be interesting to see how Pakistan’s current predicament shapes rhetoric and decision-making in the UN’s upcoming COP27 set to meet in Egypt in November 2022.

An opposing school of thought, however, argues that the Pakistani government is hardly absolved of blame as even though climate change may have brought in the rains, they believe that such disasters are “constructed” by society. For Pakistan’s specific case, Ayesha Siddiqi, a geographer at the University of Cambridge, argues that structural inequalities, inept policy-making, and undue emphasis on symbolic large-scale infrastructure projects are a few of the key reasons why the country is unprepared to meet the challenge the floods pose. One subsection of the literature takes this thought process a step further and posits that the government’s incompetence today can at least in part be traced to the extractive institutions of patronage that were set up during the British Raj and have continued to pervade Pakistani society in the form of extortion of the poor. To illustrate his case Yale scholar Shozab Raza recounts the story of Bashir Dasti, a tenant farmer who lost his home and livelihood to the floods and was asked to pay 10,000 Pakistani rupees by a local official if he wanted to be added to a list which would enable him to receive aid as a flood victim. 

To top structural deficiencies, Pakistan is in the midst of a political crisis that started back in April when former Prime Minister Imran Khan triggered a constitutional crisis when he tried to bypass a vote of no-confidence by dissolving the parliament. Upon the supreme court ruling this act unconstitutional, he has since been ousted and replaced by opposition leader Shehbaz Sharif. Khan has nonetheless continued to hold political rallies and launched a populist campaign criticising his successor’s inability to handle the economy while the Sharif government has been targeting Khan with terrorism charges. The resultant political tensions have undoubtedly been key in distracting the state from addressing the risks the floods posed sooner, thereby compounding the effect of the infrastructural and governance gaps.

Rainy Days Ahead 

Given the millions of people who are internally displaced, the most pressing risks the flash floods pose are existential. With critical infrastructure like roads and bridges severely damaged, many mountainous regions in the north and the province of Baluchistan are reportedly completely cut off leaving large swaths of the population stranded without access to shelter, food, and essential supplies. These disruptions will inevitably result in significant levels of food insecurity – a condition likely to worsen with time given that almost all of the past season’s rice, vegetable and fruit crops have been swept away and the sowing season for next year’s wheat crops is supposed to start in October. Food prices have already shot up due to the toll of these factors and recognizing the humanitarian crisis Pakistan is fast slipping into, Finance Minister Miftah Ismail has announced that they could consider importing vegetables from India – a drastic measure that illustrates the severity of the situation in Pakistan. On the economic front, the floods couldn’t have come at a worse time with the country having an inflation rate of approximately 25% as of July, only enough foreign exchange in reserve for a month of imports, and a current account deficit at about $17.4 billion. In addition to a loss of agricultural productivity, it is estimated that Pakistan has lost 45% of their cotton crops which will result in severe supply shocks to the domestic textile industry which accounts for 60% of the country’s exports. 

With the plethora of new challenges the floods now present, one can expect Pakistan’s political landscape to become increasingly polarised and dysfunctional in the next few months. In terms of more long-term political threats, there is also a chance that militant groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army and the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan will capitalise on the mass displacement and abundant social grievances to recruit new members into their ranks. This could not only increase attacks against the Pakistani government and military but will also potentially increase militancy in Kashmir which could have significant repercussions for Pakistan-India relations at a time when the country can not afford to risk a border conflict.

What has the international community’s response been? 
As of last week, the International Monetary Fund has approved a $1.1 billion bailout program for Pakistan. UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, has also urged the world to come to Pakistan’s aid and launched an appeal for $160 million. These calls for aid are beginning to be slowly answered by the UAE, Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan, and China. Additionally, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, China, and the UAE have also pledged financial support which allows Pakistan to satisfy the IMF demand for the country to secure external support for its financing gap which is estimated to be $4 billion. China, a close ally with a vested interest in Pakistan’s development, has also increased its flow of aid to the country as of last Monday and will be sending across $300,000 in hard currency and 25,000 tents in addition to the 4,000 tents, 50,0000 blankets and 50,000 waterproof tarps they have already provided. In terms of Western states, Canada will be contributing $5 million in humanitarian assistance, the UK has pledged a £15 million package of support, and the US has pledged $30 million in addition to the $1.1 million in grants and project support that was provided earlier in August. It is yet to be seen how adept the Pakistani government will be at channelling these resources to those most in need.