An Overview of the Events

The world was in shock when Nancy Pelosi stepped down from the Boeing C40 in Taipei Songshan Airport on 2 August 2022. Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan was the highest-ranking US official visit in 25 years since Newton Gingrich, then Speaker of the House of Representatives, visited Taiwan in 1997. This meeting was organised in the greatest secrecy. None of the government officials revealed any details of the meeting until a day before Pelosi’s plane landed in Taipei. Despite rumours that the House Speaker would make a stopover at Taiwan before heading to South Korea, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied such claims when asked about the possibility of a visit to Taiwan, stating that ‘it had received no information about a planned visit to Taiwan by United States House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.’ During a press brief at the White House, the National Security Council spokesperson Jake Kirby also refused to confirm the visit and emphasized that nothing has changed about the One China Policy. However, he promised that the White House would ensure a ‘safe and secure’ trip if Nancy Pelosi decided to visit Taiwan.

After she landed in Taiwan, the Chinese government blamed the United States (US) for violating the One China Principle and warned that ‘those playing with fire will get burned.’ China not only suspended some trade with Taiwan but also held a series of live-fire military drills around Taiwan and launched 16 short-range ballistic missiles on 4 August 2022. 5 of those missiles landed in Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and triggered a response within Japan. Japan’s Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi condemned China’s behaviour and urged China to suspend the military drill at once. Prime Minister Kishida Fumio also condemned the irrational behaviour of China and called for ‘immediate cancellation’ of Chinese military drills. On 5 August, China announced sanctions on Nancy Pelosi and her relatives over her visit to Taiwan. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs also announced a series of countermeasures in response to the visit, including the suspension of China-US talks on climate change and a series of cooperation against transnational crimes and illegal immigrants.

The Impacts on US-China Relations

The Biden administration had already expressed its concern before Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan took place shortly after Biden and Xi Jinping’s phone call in late July, which was described as ‘a robust exchange on the many disputes between the world’s two biggest economic powers.’ During the call, Xi Jinping emphasized the need to maintain communications on important issues and Biden reiterated the United States’ position on One China Policy. Indeed, the White House and the Pentagon explicitly opposed the visit as it may further deteriorate the relationship between China and the US. As China has suspended bilateral cooperation with the US on different issues, it would be sensible for the Biden administration to reevaluate its attitude toward Taiwan in order to mitigate the impact of Nancy Pelosi’s visit. On 4 August, Bloomberg reported that the Biden administration is lobbying Democratic senators to postpone the passage of the Taiwan Policy Act 2022. The bill is regarded as one of the most important legislations that address Taiwan-related issues since the passage of the Taiwan Relations Act in 1979. Proposed by Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez and Senator Lindsey Graham in July 2022, the Taiwan Policy Act will officially recognize Taiwan as a major non-NATO ally (MNNA) and provide a $4.5 billion supply package for Taiwan’s security assistance over the next four years. Indeed, it seems that Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan has created a strategic dilemma for the Biden administration and it would be a challenging task for Biden to prioritize between Taiwan, one of its closest allies, and China, which is infuriated by the visit.

While US-China relations are in chaos over Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, China is unlikely to escalate the military drill to a regional conflict. While China’s foreign policy seems aggressive, the country is dealing with a series of domestic issues. China’s zero-COVID policy continues to have hugely negative social and economic impacts on the residents of big cities such as Shanghai and Zhengzhou. In July, a massive protest broke out in Henan Province after tens of thousands of people were unable to withdraw their money from the banks. Instead of settling the dispute peacefully, the protesters were attacked by unidentified men while security officers stood idle. This was highlighted by videos of the incidents, shared widely on Chinese social media before the censors stepped in, showing blue-shirted officers standing by as the burly men in white shirts began attacking the crowd.

Given the massive amount of deposits involved, the scandal could destroy public confidence in the financial stability of the country. Therefore, it seems unlikely that Xi Jinping, who is overwhelmed by a series of domestic issues, would risk his political career by invading the island.

It is for this reason that XI Jinping has been cautious in his response to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. The visit took place a day after the famous Beidaihe conference, in which high-ranking members of the Chinese Communist Party would gather at a summer resort in Hebei province to discuss the future of the leadership. The conference is also the last major political event before the 20th Party Congress in late 2022, which is going to discuss Xi Jinping’s eligibility for re-election. Although Xi Jinping values stability, he will also need to show his firm position on Taiwan-related issues in order to prove his ability to lead the CCP for another term. Indeed, while Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan has created a dilemma for the United States government, it has also created an impasse for Xi Jinping, in which he needs to choose between an aggressive foreign policy and a calm response to Nancy Pelosi’s visit. Therefore, the purpose of the military drill is more of domestic propaganda than an excuse to prepare for invasion. On the one hand, it would be a good way to distract the Chinese public from domestic issues and curb rising nationalism in China. On the other hand, a well-executed military drill would be able to prevent a direct conflict with the United States.