Between June 2nd to 4th, military leaders from across the world gathered in Singapore for the annual Shanghai La Dialogue conference hosted by the global think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies. The conference marked the first event that high level defense delegations from both the United States and China have attended since the Chinese spy balloon incident earlier this year. Many hoped for this to be an opportunity for improvement in US-China relations. 

Despite the much anticipated interactions between the two defense ministers, the Chinese Defense delegation declined an invitation from U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd to hold an informal meeting on the basis of U.S. sanctions imposed on General Li in 2018 related to the purchase of Russian fighter jets. The move comes as channels of military communication between the two superpowers are already at an all time low. Many leaders at the conference, including Lloyd, called for more open channels of communication within militaries in order to reduce the chances of miscommunication amongst unintended conflict in the Asia Pacific region. These remarks came about as it was reported that US Navy vessel the USS Chung Hoon avoided a near collision of 137 metres with a Chinese navy ship during a routine transit in the Taiwan Strait on Saturday June 3rd. 

In his keynote speech, General Li addressed the near-collision by stating that the U.S. was exploiting UNCLOS and questioned why the two ships were in the Taiwan Strait to begin with. He further stressed that Beijing “must prevent attempts to use freedom of navigation as a pretext to exercise hegemony of navigation”. On the other hand, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd stressed the importance of fostering peace and security in the Indo Pacific, rather than being a region of coercion and intimidation. He also reiterated the need to prioritise peaceful dialogue and a shared adherence to international norms. Maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait comes at a top priority for the U.S. and he reminded everyone that conflict in the region would be devastating for everyone and not just its immediate neighbours. The lack of dialogue and engagement of the PRC was also highlighted as a key concern as he reminded that “great powers must be beacons of transparency and responsibility. 

ASEAN strategy in a climate of US-China competition

Therefore, with Singapore hosting this Shangri La Dialogue, one important question remains: what role will ASEAN take in this increasingly uncertain geopolitical climate? Singaporean Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen reiterated that Singapore and ASEAN are not “disinterested bystanders, but have vested interest in making sure communication lines between the two superpowers are good”. He echoed Lloyd’s calls for greater communication and reminded that it is especially needed between adversaries. Along with the rest of ASEAN, he was worried that the deactivation of “guardrails” comes at a time of great uncertainty and raises the risk of unintended conflict. However, he did acknowledge that Li’s speech outlined China’s red lines quite well. 

ASEAN is currently at the centre of a critical trilateral relationship between the U.S., China, and Taiwan, and are aware that increased tensions and a potential conflict would have devastating effects on their prosperity. As a result, in order to maintain ASEAN Centrality, many ASEAN leaders have stressed that they would refrain from taking sides amidst the worsening strategic rivalry as many ASEAN nations depend heavily on China as their main trade partner while maintaining strong security ties with the U.S. During the session on ‘Balancing Asia-Pacific Minilateralism and ASEAN Centrality, the Secretary General of ASEAN, Dr Kao Kim Hourn, reinforced the importance of ASEAN Centrality and the role of ASEAN in not engaging in altering the balance of power, but instead engaging with external powers. He also reiterated the cruciality of having ASEAN “in the driver’s seat” of Indo Pacific strategies due to its strategic maritime location and vast economic importance. With so many stakeholders engaged in the  Indo Pacific, ASEAN leaders are increasingly seeking to strengthen their national strategies to complement sub regional arrangements and in turn reinforce ASEAN-led regional mechanisms. Since ASEAN can be regarded as the leading platform for multilateralism in the Indo-Pacific, it undoubtedly needs to seek to play a larger role in shaping a new regional security architecture for the region. Therefore, despite some skepticism about the compatibility of minilateralism with ASEAN Centrality, the rise of minilateralism such as AUKUS and the QUAD, in addressing growing strategic challenges is mostly regarded as a strength to complement ASEAN’s regional initiatives. Particularly, leaders also reiterated that ASEAN’s open and inclusive mechanism of a consensus-based approach can be an asset to address the growing security dilemma in an age of increasing deadlock in communication between major powers. 

Another major point of contention for ASEAN at this year’s Shangri La Dialogue was the push to finalise the ‘Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea’, also known as the South China Sea Code of Conduct. Despite the Code of Conduct having been a concept since 2002, there has been a lack of will to create a concrete framework for negotiations. In addition, China has claimed much of the territory in the contested strategic waterway. However, in this current geopolitical climate where stability and predictability in the maritime sphere is needed, ASEAN is now looking to intensify negotiations with China in order to produce an ‘effective, substantive and actionable’ code of conduct. Notably, the question of a wider code of conduct involving other major powers such as the U.S. should also be negotiated in order to reduce volatility in maritime relations in the Taiwan Strait. The Philippine Defense Minister expressed his concern for the U.S. - China rivalry spilling into the South China Sea and specifically noted the increased run ins with Chinese vessels in waters surrounding the Philippines. He reiterated his hope for both powers to effectively manage their divergence without jeopardising their respective legitimate practice. Based on this brief survey of positions by ASEAN leaders, it seems that promoting multilateralism and avoiding a physical conflict in their region comes at their top priority. Leaders appear to be valuing a push for engagement through their ASEAN Outlook on the Indo Pacific. 

Thus, while both China and the U.S. have formally reiterated their support for ASEAN Centrality and inclusivity in regional cooperation efforts, there remains disagreement over what exactly it constitutes. Beijing has explicitly rejected the creation of partnerships which incite bloc confrontation. In his keynote speech, General Li denounced the increasing push for NATO-semblant “alliances” in the Indo-Pacific, notably AUKUS and the QUAD, and stated it was akin to “kidnapping regional countries and exaggerating conflicts and confrontations”. On the other hand, the U.S. has reiterated that AUKUS and the QUAD are not NATO-like alliances. The relation between the U.S. and ASEAN was also brought to the forefront as the U.S. seeks to expand its cooperation with ASEAN. In follow up questions to his speech, Lloyd made the remark that alliances such as AUKUS and QUAD were not contradictory to and would not undermine ASEAN Centrality. Instead, ASEAN and QUAD have the potential to become partners and foster multilateralism in the region. 

Overall, the Shangri La Dialogue came at an eventful timing of high uncertainty in the security of the Indo Pacific, in which many hoped would be the opportunity for tensions between the U.S. and China to ease. Judging from speeches made by respective defense ministers it is clear that the top priority remains to prevent a physical conflict in the Taiwan Strait and to maintain peace and security. However, the reality is that the U.S. and China continue to remain in a deadlock on cooperation and engagement and the risk of accidental conflict is ever increasing. Seeing that the relations remain tense, many leaders, notably ASEAN leaders, are now left with decisions over how to interact with the new and existing security alliances in the Indo-Pacific. The conference also coincided with the visit of a White House delegation to Beijing to discuss key issues in their bilateral relationship, therefore the outlook may improve for the U.S. Secretary of State Blinken’s rescheduled visit to Beijing and for the upcoming Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum later this year in November.