Giorgia Meloni, the current leader of the political party Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d’Italia, Fdl), won the election on Monday becoming the first far-right Italian prime minister since Benito Mussolini. An avid critic of Beijing and its assertive foreign policy, Meloni was never shy to express her support of Taiwan throughout her campaign. Two months before the election, Meloni tweeted that she had a pleasant meeting with Taiwan’s Representative to Italy Andrea Sing-Ying Lee on July 26. She described the meeting as ‘profitable’ and added that she is always ‘alongside those who believe in the values of freedom and democracy.’ In addition, in her written response to the Taiwanese news agency CNA, Meloni said that Taiwan will be ‘an essential concern for Italy’ if her party wins the election in September. She is also going to terminate the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with China and improve the bilateral relations between Italy and Taiwan in key areas such as the semiconductor industry, scientific research, and cultural exchange. 

The deteriorating relationship between China and Italy 

Meloni’s commitment to improving Italy-Taiwan relations is not surprising. Her tough stance on China is a manifestation of the changing perceptions of China in Italy. Indeed, Italy used to be one of the closest trade partners of China in Europe: it was the only G7 country to sign on to the BRI agreement with Beijing in 2019. The Giuseppe Conte administration was eager to pull Italy out of the economic recession in 2018, and China’s proposal was hard to resist. The Memorandum of Understanding covered different areas such as infrastructure, trade, financial and green development cooperation. After China’s repression of peaceful protests in Hong Kong and the outbreak of the Coronavirus in 2020, however, Italy’s view of China began to change. Meloni’s predecessor, Mario Draghi, committed to reevaluating the feasibility of the BRI agreement at the 2021 G7 summit. He also vetoed three Chinese investment plans in the same year, fearing that China would take over Italy’s semiconductor industry. 

Prospects for Italy-Taiwan Relations Under Meloni

The Italian government is well aware of the strategic importance of the semiconductor industry and it is already planning a $4.6 million fund until 2030 to support domestic chip manufacturing. Indeed, Taiwan would be a powerful ally if it agrees to invest in Italy’s semiconductor industry: Taiwan manufactures over 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors. If Taiwan agrees to invest in Italy’s semiconductor industry, Italy would be able to possess one of the biggest semiconductor industries in Europe. In addition to the semiconductor industry, Italy is also a potential supporter of equipment needed to build Taiwan’s Indigenous Defense Submarine (IDS). While the Taiwanese navy didn’t give many details about the countries involved in the IDS project, Italy’s experience in building submarines could provide Taiwan with the technology and components it desperately needs. Indeed, the Italian shipbuilding company Fincantieri cooperated with Germany’s Howaldtswerke- Deutsche Werft (HDW) and built four Todaro class submarines (Type 212A) for the Italian Navy in the 21st century. Equipped with upgraded weapon and telecommunication systems, the Todaro class is regarded as one of the most advanced diesel-electric submarines in the world. Italy’s experience in designing and building submarines would be able to help Taiwan modernize its fleet and counter China’s growing naval capability.

Domestic Pressures

Despite her friendly attitude toward Taiwan, implementing Meloni’s foreign policy won't be an easy task. Similar to the situation faced by Liz Truss, Giorgia Meloni and her vision of foreign policy will be hindered by the challenging domestic environment, namely the skyrocketing cost of living and the impending energy crisis in winter. Italy’s inflation was pushed to a 37-year high with an inflation rate of 8.4% as of August. While Italy has secured enough LNG supplies for this winter, the country’s long-term energy security still depends on the installation of the new regasification unit. Indeed, although Meloni is eager to deepen the cooperation between Italy and Taiwan, she has to put domestic politics at the top of her agenda this year.