The United States has further escalated the current political crisis facing Bosnia and Herzegovina by announcing on 5 January that it was imposing sanctions on Milorad Dodik, the Serbian member of Bosnia’s tripartite presidency, as well as the media outlet ATV, with which Dodik is closely linked. Sanctions on other individuals and companies allied to Dodik followed, and many European countries are also threatening their own sanctions. Meanwhile countries like Hungary, Russia, and China have offered their support. As Bosnia and Herzegovina’s constituent entities become further divided geopolitically, the country risks sliding even further into failed state territory, or as some fear, a return to conflict. 

Why is Dodik under fire? 

Bosnia and Herzegovina has one of the most complicated governmental structures in the world, and as part of this structure it is split into two autonomous federal entities: the Croat and Bosniak dominated Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Serb dominated Republika Srpska. Dodik, who is the highest representative of the country’s Serbs, has attempted to push this autonomy to new levels in recent months. He has withdrawn the Republika Srpska from the federal medicines agency, national tax administration, and judiciary. Most worryingly in a country with a recent history of conflict, he also began talking of secession and threatened to form a separate Serb army, although he later reneged on this promise. Dodik claims these moves are in response to years of centralizing reforms that violate Bosnia’s constitution, and he was particularly incensed with a genocide denial law imposed by the international High Representative, a foreigner endowed with certain executive and legislative powers under the Dayton Peace Agreements. 

However, there is evidence that Dodik has actually embarked on this course in order to protect himself. The man is notorious for corruption. Indeed, directly before announcing the Republika Srpska’s withdrawal from the national medicines agency, he was implicated in a scandal in which the entity’s hospitals had been giving oxygen meant for industrial machines to COVID patients. It later emerged that the oxygen was purchased from a company in Dodik’s hometown of Laktasi. Many have therefore alleged that the true motivation behind Dodik’s actions is to prevent federal oversight of his corrupt activity. There is also the possibility that enflaming nationalist tensions will distract from how corruption is hurting the economy, as Dodik’s popularity is waning in the run up to elections in October. The US also cited corruption in the Republika Srpska as a reason for imposing sanctions on Dodik. 

How have Dodik and others responded? 

Dodik unsurprisingly denied the allegations leveled against him and attempted to downplay the sanctions. The Republika Srpska opposition has welcomed the sanctions and expects them to eventually bring Dodik to heel, thus positively impacting the economy. While Dodik has thus far refused to back down, he already declared in November that he would turn to Russia and China for help in the event of sanctions, and both countries have expressed their willingness to support him. However, Russia seems more interested in keeping Bosnia dysfunctional than it does in supporting Dodik per se. Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly told Dodik it was not willing to support him militarily given its current military entanglements. 

In Europe, reactions have been mixed. Hungary’s president, Viktor Orban, has declared €100 million of support for the Republika Srpska and has vowed to veto any EU sanctions against Dodik. Serbia itself has been less supportive. Its president, Aleksandar Vucic, is similarly out of favor in Washington for corruption and closeness to Russia, and it has leaked that Vucic offered to help orchestrate Dodik’s political downfall in order to get back in the good graces of the West and secure his own election victory in April. From the Western camp, the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Italy, Austria, Spain, and the Czech Republic have all announced their intention to impose their own sanctions, although it is likely that Hungary and other European countries opposed to sanctions will prevent the EU itself from imposing sanctions. 

Will conflict return to Bosnia? 

While many have expressed fear that another outbreak of conflict will engulf Bosnia and Herzegovina, this is an unlikely outcome. The country’s population has aged considerably as many fighting age youth have left the country, and international efforts have also reduced the number of weapons floating around. The Republika Srpska also could not count on the military support from Serbia it enjoyed in the 1990s, and as previously stated Russia would also not support it. Fears of institutional paralysis and economic stagnation are more founded, however. In a political environment in which overlapping territorial and institutional mandates have paralyzed policymaking, the further decentralization Dodik has initiated is likely to further inhibit the ability of the state to function. With the country’s federal institutions called into doubt, it is unlikely that Dodik’s Serb nationalist supporters will be quick to accept them again. With the state’s already diminished capacity to govern further reduced, corruption will continue to flourish, and unemployment and emigration will continue to plague the economy. 

Will Bosnia break apart? 

As the situation deteriorates, many have begun to question if Bosnia’s peaceful separation may be a good thing, despite longstanding international opposition to this option. Indeed, Croats in the Federation have also begun to challenge the status quo, bemoaning the fact that they do not constitute the majority in either of the existing federal entities. There is therefore considerable debate about changes to the electoral system in the run up to elections later this year. However, the EU has vehemently condemned suggestions of a Bosnian partition, and the US has also long opposed the idea. Russia seems content with the status quo, as the Serbian faction will perpetually prevent the country from joining NATO. Therefore, even if sanctions succeed in securing Dodik’s fall from grace, there will be many more nationalists to replace him, and the cycle of dysfunction will continue.