Estonia held parliamentary elections on 5 March 2023, with Kaja Kallas, Estonia's incumbent Prime Minister, and one of Europe's most vocal supporters of Ukraine, winning the election. Kallas, who has held the office since 2021, faced a challenge from the far-right populist party EKRE, which wants to limit the Baltic nation's exposure to Russia's war in Ukraine and blames the government for the country's high inflation. Kallas' liberal Reform Party captured 32 percent of the vote, cementing its position as the leader of the next ruling coalition. Meanwhile, EKRE received just 16 percent, putting it 10 percent behind poll projections. 

As expected, Russian aggression against Ukraine and its consequences dominated both parties' platforms and electoral agendas. However, the parties held diametrically opposed viewpoints regarding ways to address the challenges caused by the war in Ukraine. 

EKRE's pre-election position, characterised by advocating against arms deliveries to Kyiv and campaigning to halt Ukrainian refugee arrivals, can be explained by a number of factors. These include EKRE’s desire to blame the government's incompetence for the war's economic effects, its anti-establishment orientation, and the desire to appeal to Russian-speaking voters. 

It is evident that EKRE aimed to leverage the invasion of Ukraine in order to increase its popularity. First, the party stepped up its nativist agenda by claiming that ethnic Estonians will become a minority in their own country due to mass immigration of Ukrainian refugees. It opposed the admittance of Ukrainian refugees, advocating banning Ukrainians from applying for the status of war refugees in Estonia. 

Second, it took advantage of voters' economic insecurities, making populist claims about the establishment's incompetence to manage  soaring inflation and rising energy prices. In its campaign, EKRE promised to reduce energy bills by opposing green energy. This was particularly attractive to Estonia’s Russian minority who, on average, are economically less successful than ethnic Estonians. Pointing out Estonia’s recent economic decline, the party called for caution when dealing with Russia, condemning the economic damage massive aid donations to Ukraine has caused for Estonia. 

EKRE was also trying to reach out to Estonia's Russian minority, which shares its euroscepticism, anti-establishment grievances, and resentment of Ukrainian refugees. For example, EKRE used its support of “traditional values” and opposition to LGBTQ rights to appeal to Estonia's Russian population. The party’s policy  messaging also repeated some of Russia’s anti-Ukrainian propaganda narrative. While EKRE has never been explicitly pro-Russian, it sought to expand its agenda beyond its traditional sphere with the hope of winning over Russian voters. 

However, EKRE’s increasingly pro-Russian rhetoric failed to achieve the election win they had hoped for. This can be explained by two factors: Estonians’ security concerns and, as a result, fear of a government that contains a populist, anti-Ukrainian party. The former Prime Minister of Estonia, Mart Laar, has described EKRE’s behaviour, statements, and attitudes as “giving an impression of promoting Putin's agenda in Estonia.” EKRE has also been  critical of Estonia’s decision to give Ukraine weapons and ammunition, raising questions about its motives. Estonian voters’ fears were exacerbated when it was suggested that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the oligarch who founded the paramilitary Wagner Group, was planning to exploit EKRE's pro-Russian rhetoric, although this is denied by the party.

The winner of the election, the Reform Party, is known for its liberal positions that radically differ from those of EKRE. Its leader Kaja Kallas advocates for maintaining diplomatic and material support for Ukraine and accepting more Ukrainian refugees. Kallas has also called dispatching military aid to Kyiv a top priority, with approximately half of Estonia's defense budget going to Ukraine. She has justified the huge spending by saying that Kyiv's fighters are “weakening the same enemy as we have”. Known for her  strong public statements, Kallas has emerged as one of the most outspoken advocates for Ukraine in Europe. Her international appeals for sanctions against Moscow have only further enhanced her standing. 

As expected, Kallas, who now has the task of forming a new coalition, has ruled out going into coalition with EKRE. Her current three-party coalition with the Social Democrats and Isamaa (Fatherland) may be relaunched, or she may strike a deal with the Centre or Estonia 200, the new liberal party. Regardless of the outcome, the Reform Party will be able to continue its firm support for Ukraine. 

The Reform Party's victory suggests that most Estonians are willing to sacrifice financially to help Ukraine. Due to their wish to support Ukraine and their fear of EKRE’s victory, the electorate came out in large numbers, including those who usually have little interest in politics, resulting in the first increase in the participation rate since 1995. They have voted accordingly and this, in turn, will allow the  Estonian government to uphold its reputation as one of Europe's most pro-Kyiv governments. Estonian voters have sent a strong message to their political leaders: Ukraine's ability to fight back against Russia is essential to Estonia's independence.