• Putin’s Reshuffle: Sergei Shoigu replaced by Andrei Belousov as Defence Minister, amidst a significant government overhaul.

• Belousov’s Background: An economist and former First Deputy Prime Minister with a strong stance on state economic control, now steering Russia’s defence strategy.

• Focus on War Economy: Belousov expected to enhance Russia's 'war economy' and manage the defence budget, as military spending rises to 7.4%.

• Anti-Corruption Mandate: Tasked with rooting out corruption within the military, following recent high-profile arrests of senior defence officials.

Putin’s 12 May government reshuffle produced several seriously unexpected results; Sergei Shoigu, who served as Defence Minister for over a decade, has been moved to replace Nikolai Patrushev as Secretary of the Security Council of Russia, while Patrushev is appointed as aide to the President alongside Alexei Dyumin, a key ally of Putin. However, chief among these examples would be the replacement of Shoigu with economist and First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov. This specific change has garnered a lot of attention from international and domestic observers alike, as in spite of Belousov’s lack of military experience, there exists a general consensus that he is an effective choice for defence minister, and will have a pivotal role in advancing Russia’s growing ‘war economy’.

Belousov had previously served in several civilian roles in government, ranging from minister of economic development in 2012, to Presidential Assistant in Economic Affairs between 2013-2020, and then as First Deputy Prime Minister between 2020 till his appointment to Minister of Defence. His reputation depicts him as being a ‘tough-talking’, ‘very Soviet’ individual. Renowned for his vehement support for state dominance in the economy, he had previously proposed the seizure of profits from several private companies in 2018 and later in 2021, accusing metallurgical companies of ‘extorting the state’. In perhaps more relevant experience for his new role, Belousov has been a driving force behind the initiation of Russia’s ‘national project’ for further advancing the country’s drone industry, with him placing emphasis on domestic mass production in both February 2023 and more recently in January of this year, when he laid out plans for drone production to exceed 32,000 annually by 2030.

The rationale behind this decision may be initially confusing, as many might expect that a career-soldier like that of Shoigu would hold the post of defence minister, particularly as Russia’s so-called ‘Special Military Operation’ rages on in Ukraine. However, presidential spokesperson Dmitri Peskov would explain on the day of the reshuffle that with spending on defence now expected to hit 7.4% in the near future, the ministry would need ‘special handling’, for which Belousov was essential. While Belousov is a well-regarded economist within Russia, and thus trusted to manage the growing defence budget, there likewise exists significant emphasis that he will be expected to root out the almost-systemic corruption within the military. In the past month, deputy defence minister to Shoigu, Timur Ivanov, was arrested on charges of corruption, having taken effective bribes in return for awarding defence contracts to particular private businesses, this was then more recently followed by the arrest of another senior official, Yuri Kuznetsov, thus representing the large-scale corruption within the military. However Belousov, in contrast, remains well-positioned to conduct an ‘anti-corruption purge’. Reportedly, he is regarded as having no record of corruption, and has repeatedly expressed his view of businesses being run by crooks, thus being expected to be fairely incorruptable.

Belousov’s selection for defence minister, consequently, represents a changing of perspective within the Kremlin, as consensus gradually concludes that this war will continue into the coming years. Though 2024 has seen Russia increasingly achieve battlefield successes, with the capture of Avdeevka and recent offensive in the Kharkiv region, the approval of over USD $61 billion in aid for Ukraine in April has led to many in the Kremlin to prioritise the strengthening of the war economy, in order to out-produce and thus out-gun Ukraine and its NATO support. With Belousov at the helm, there is a perceived potential that Russia’s current success in this field can be propelled further as a result of his economic experience, whilst simultaneously ridding the ministry and armed forces of systemic corruption that has hindered its progress in the past two years of conflict. It may be too early to identify the true impact that this will have on the war, but the unorthodox nature of a civilian like Belousov’s appointment to the head of the defence ministry indicates a shifting strategy in Russia’s conduct of its military both on the front, and at home.