As President Maia Sandu seeks re-election, Moldova faces a pivotal decision between European integration and Russian influence that will shape Moldova's geopolitical future.

The presidential election in Moldova on October 20, 2024, is a significant turning point for the country, with profound implications for its geopolitical direction and internal stability. In addition to electing a president, Moldovans will also vote in a referendum on European Union integration, shaping the country’s future relationship with the EU and Russia.

Incumbent president Sandu, a pro-European candidate, is seeking re-election, and her candidacy has sparked intense debate. Moldovan president Maia Sandu’s 2024 re-election campaign centres on deepening the country’s integration with the European Union, continuing her anti-corruption initiatives, and pursuing economic reforms. Since taking office, Sandu has worked to align Moldova with EU standards, strengthen ties with Romania, and overhaul the justice system to combat corruption.

Her administration has initiated legal reforms and prosecuted several high-profile corruption cases, particularly targeting figures linked to past political scandals. Sandu has also emphasised reducing Moldova’s reliance on Russia by seeking new trade agreements with the EU and advocating for energy diversification. However, critics argue that these shifts have exacerbated economic challenges, such as inflation and declining agricultural exports. The opposition’s criticism centres on Sandu’s financial management and foreign policy. Opponents claim that her government’s focus on EU integration has come at the expense of Moldova’s economic relationship with Russia. They argue that Sandu’s push for EU membership risks severing ties with a critical market and energy supplier, potentially destabilising the country. Moreover, Sandu's actions, such as the 2023 decision to rename the Moldovan language to Romanian, have stirred discontent among ethnic minorities, particularly in the autonomous regions of Gagauzia and Transnistria, which have strong pro-Russian sentiments. Gagauzia is an autonomous territorial unit in the south of Moldova, predominantly inhabited by the Gagauz people, a Turkic-speaking Orthodox Christian ethnic group. The region has a population of about 150,000 people, who identify more with Russian culture and language than with Romanian. In 1994, Gagauzia was granted autonomy after tensions arose during the early 1990s, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, to prevent the region from seceding.

In 2014, amid growing geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West, Gagauzia held an unofficial referendum in which an overwhelming majority (over 98%) of voters expressed a preference to join the Russia-led Customs Union rather than pursue closer ties with the European Union which Moldova had been leaning toward. Although the Moldovan government declared the referendum illegal and did not recognise the results, the vote underscored Gagauzia's strong alignment with Russia and a desire, at least symbolically, to explore the possibility of unification with Russia. Economic ties with Russia, alongside dissatisfaction with Moldova’s pro-EU orientation, continue to fuel these pro-Russian sentiments in the region.

Her policies, however, have drawn criticism from opposition parties, particularly those with pro-Russian leanings, such as the Party of Socialists and the Victory bloc. They accuse Sandu of undermining Moldova’s traditional ties with Russia and CIS countries, particularly in areas like energy security and agricultural exports, which have long depended on Russian markets.

The 2024 presidential campaign in Moldova features a range of opponents challenging the frontrunner, President Maia Sandu. Alexandr Stoianoglo, the former Prosecutor General, is considered her main rival, although his candidacy is marked by controversy. Nominally presenting himself as pro-European, Stoianoglo enjoys significant backing from pro-Russian factions, including the Socialist Party, the largest pro-Russian group in the Moldovan parliament. He has also been embroiled in corruption allegations stemming from his time as Prosecutor General. Although he denies any wrongdoing, the ongoing legal proceedings against him have complicated his candidacy and his campaign is seen as part of a broader effort by pro-Russian factions to regain influence in Moldova, particularly after the rise of Sandu’s Party of Action and Solidarity in 2021. His platform advocates for a more neutral foreign policy, promoting balanced relations with Russia and the EU, in contrast to Sandu's strongly pro-Western stance. Despite his position as a pro-European candidate, his critics argue that his ties to Russia suggest a covert alignment with Kremlin-backed interests.

Another notable candidate is Irina Vlah, the former Bashkan (governor) of the autonomous region of Gagauzia, which has a predominantly Russian-speaking population. Vlah has consistently advocated for preserving strong ties with Russia and has expressed scepticism about Moldova’s move toward European integration. Like Stoianoglo, she represents a segment of Moldova’s electorate that feels alienated by Sandu’s pro-European policies, particularly in regions with closer historical and cultural ties to Russia.

The crowded field of candidates includes other nominally independent runners, such as Vasilie Tarlev and Victoria Fortuna. These candidates are expected to play a strategic role in the campaign by diluting the pro-European vote or coordinating with the significant pro-Russian candidates to force a runoff or weaken Sandu’s overall support.

One of the major points of contention is the concurrent referendum on EU integration. The referendum will ask Moldovan citizens whether they support amending the Constitution to allow the country to pursue membership in the European Union.  The referendum is important because it would prevent future governments from derailing Moldova from its pro-European trajectory. Embedding the commitment to EU integration in the Constitution ensures that Moldova's pursuit of EU membership remains a long-term, legally binding priority, regardless of political changes or shifts in leadership. This constitutional safeguard would make it much harder for any future government to reverse or abandon the country’s European aspirations. Moreover, this vote is a pivotal step in Moldova's efforts to solidify its long-term orientation towards EU integration, reflecting geopolitical aspirations and domestic reforms to align with EU standards. The timing of this referendum, alongside the presidential election, has drawn criticism from the opposition, which claims it is a favour. While pro-European forces see the referendum as a crucial step towards Moldova’s future in the EU, opposition parties argue that Moldova’s cultural and economic ties with Russia are too deeply rooted to be abandoned. They fear that EU integration could compromise Moldova’s sovereignty and traditional values, concerns amplified by Kremlin-backed disinformation campaigns.

This election is not just a political contest but a referendum on Moldova’s identity and strategic direction. Sandu’s pro-European agenda contrasts sharply with the opposition’s vision of maintaining closer ties with Russia. Moreover, external forces, particularly Russian interference, loom large, with disinformation campaigns aiming to erode public support for EU integration and portray the EU as a destabilising force.

The 2024 presidential election and EU referendum in Moldova are pivotal moments for the country. At stake is not just the presidency but the very future of Moldova’s political orientation. A victory for Sandu would reinforce Moldova’s commitment to EU integration, while a win for the opposition could signal a shift back towards Russia. The outcome will reverberate far beyond Moldova, influencing regional dynamics and the broader contest between Western democratic values and Russian influence in Eastern Europe.