by Christopher Dufty

ABSTRACT

A key feature of the ongoing Russo-Ukraine conflict since its outset in February 2022 has been the use of strategic fires from both sides. This research aims to examine exclusively the systems, capabilities, successes and failures of the Russian strategic strike systems and draw out lessons that can be used both to examine Russian strategic weakness and advise planning and acquisition suggestions for other global military forces. This report will firstly provide the scope for the systems covered and further provide definitions for key terms concerning the Russian fire capability in order to be consumable by a non-military-jargon-literate audience.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Russia has been using its strategic missile capability throughout the ongoing war to hit a variety of Ukrainian targets to a limited strategic effect.

• Russia has been using a wide scope of systems ranging from Western equivalent, modern cruise missiles to Iranian designed one way attack drones that are far less capable but much cheaper. The introduction of these cheaper systems has allowed Russia to increase the volume and scale of attacks to increase the efficacy of strikes especially in December 2023 and January 2024.

• Ukrainian air defence efforts have been highly successful given the complexity of networking their existing systems and integrating donated Western systems.

•  Russian missile attacks are highly likely to continue at scale across Ukraine driving a perpetual cat-and-mouse game between changing Russian strike tactics and improving Ukrainian air defence systems.