By Sean Thorne

ABSTRACT

The year 2024 constitutes the biggest election year in history with 83 elections across 78 countries with more than 4 billion people expected to go to the polls, which represents nearly half of the world population.

In this new series, London Politica’s Intelligence Support Group and the Emergent Technologies department collaborate to provide in-depth case studies based on OSINT (Open Source Intelligence Analysis) investigation. 

The 2024 US Presidential Election will take place on 5 November and the United States is the target of large-scale, coordinated disinformation campaigns and influence operations, primarily originating from Russia, China, and Iran. Such operations have previously targeted US elections at both the presidential and congressional levels.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• The United States faces a three-sided onslaught of influence operations and disinformation campaigns, disproportionately stemming from Russia, with China and Iran being secondary actors of note. 

• Russian influence is distinctly pro-Trump in its activities, largely stemming from his scepticism of supporting Ukraine and the associated advantages for Moscow.

• Actors rely on a multifaceted approach to influence activities, comprising entirely fake news sites, the spoofing of mainstream media, and the propagation of fictitious social media accounts.

• The United States seeks to combat misinformation with a multi-agency approach and is increasingly assertive in its countermeasures, though adversarial actors maintain advantages in their ability to overwhelm US reactions.

• Diminished public trust in American politicians to not spread misinformation is more prominent than concern over foreign interference, reflecting further complexity in how the US must respond to foreign influence activities.