By Léopold Maisonny

SUMMARY

On Monday, January 22, The US and UK militaries carried out strikes against Houthi missile and surveillance capabilities and an underground ammunition depot in Yemen. This is the eighth round of American strikes against the Houthis since they began their campaign of attacks on ships crossing the Bad-el-Mandeb Strait on November 19, and the second time with British involvement. The first US-UK strikes took place on Friday, January 12, around 3 am (AST - local time), and hit 60 targets in 28 locations in Yemen in response to the Houthi attacks against ships cruising in the Red Sea, and especially the January 10 attack on American and British destroyers. The US-UK strikes have unlikely severely undermined the Houthis’ ability to continue their attacks on ships transiting through the Red Sea due to their limited scope and the dispersion of the Houthis’ military capabilities. The Houthi have indeed launched several anti-ship cruise missiles against commercial vessels since the first US-UK strikes. In Yemen, the strikes will likely enhance support for the Houthi regime, given the Yemeni population’s aversion to foreign interventionism. Regional escalation remains unlikely, as Iran’s geopolitical interests are better served by acting through proxies than engaging in direct military confrontation with other regional powers, and the US is reluctant to be involved in a regional conflict in the Middle East, even more in an election year. The Houthi attacks are also disrupting the supply chain of some companies in Europe, causing delays and halting industrial production. 

CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS

• Rumours about US-UK air strikes had already flourished in the evening of January 11, as the UK cabinet was meeting at 7:45 pm (WET) to consider retaliation after the Houthi attack against the destroyer HMS Diamond and three other American vessels on January 10. That Houthi attack involved a barrage of 21 drones, rockets, and cruise missiles and has been the largest one since the beginning of the Houthi attacks against ships in the Red Sea on November 19. 

• Two days later, the US CENTCOM announced that the US and UK forces hit 60 targets (command centres, radar systems, drone launching sites, munition depots and production facilities) in 28 locations on the night from January 11 to January 12. 22 F-18 Hornets operating from the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower aircraft carrier group conducted airstrikes, while the USS Florida submarine and USS Philippine Sea guided missile cruiser launched Tomahawk land attack missiles together with USS Mason and USS Gravely, two Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers. 

• The US carried out an additional strike on a radar site at 3:45 am (AST) on January 13. The destroyer USS Carney conducted the strike using Tomahawk land attack missiles.  

• On January 14, the Houthis retaliated by launching an anti-ship cruise missile against the USS LaBoon, an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer. A US fighter shot down the missile off the coast of Hudaydah.

• The Houthis have pursued their attacks against commercial ships in the Red Sea, launching anti-ship cruise missiles against the M/V Gibraltar Eagle, a US-owned and operated container carrier, on January 15, and  M/V Zografia, a Maltese-flagged bulk carrier, on January 16. The attacks did not cause any injury or impact on the ships' journey, although the M/V Zografia was struck.

• On January 19, Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, the spokesman of the Houthi rebels, declared in the Russian media Izvestia that attacks on ships connected to certain countries, especially Israel, will continue while vessels from other countries, like Russia and China, will be guaranteed safe transiting in the Red Sea. 

• On January 22, US warships, submarines, and F-18 Hornets operating from USS Dwight D. Eisenhower aircraft carrier group and UK Typhoons based in Akrotiri Base, Cyprus, conducted strikes against a Houthi underground ammunition facility and missile and radar sites. While the Pentagon statement announced that eight targets were hit, Yahya Sarea, the Houthi spokesperson, claimed that 18 strikes were conducted (12 in Sana’a, Yemen’s capital, three in Al Hudaydah, two in Taiz governorate, and one in Al-Bayda governorate).

The author of this brief, with the help of OSINT, particularly SOCMINT and GEOINT tools, identified and confirmed the following geographical locations of the US-UK 1st-round strikes:

Al-Faza Port: 14° 5'7.80"N,  43° 6'32.60"E

Ta’Izz International Airport:  13°41'21.61"N,  44° 8'44.23"E 

Hudaydah International Airport:  14°45'18.47"N,  42°58'15.79"E

Al-Dalaimi Air base:  15°28'31.45"N,  44°13'20.33"E 

Abs District Airport (Houthi military base):  16° 0'36.88"N,  43°11'4.89"E 

ANALYSIS 

• In sum, two joint US-UK and eight US military operations are unlikely to have a significant impact on the Houthis’ operational capabilities in the short term due to their limited scale and the geographical dispersion and the significant size of the Houthi military capabilities. The rumours of US-UK strikes on the evening of January 11 likely allowed the Houthi leadership to limit the damage inflicted by the US-UK strikes by moving sensitive material and key personnel to other locations. The US-UK strikes are part of a controlled escalation strategy designed to end Iran’s support to the Houthi regime. However, the strikes are very unlikely to deter the Houthi from continuing their attacks, given their large stocks of ammunition and relative autonomy from Tehran. A sustained and larger air campaign would unlikely end the Houthi threat in light of the failure of the Saudi-led air campaign since 2015. A naval blockade to prevent Iran’s ammunition supply to the Houthis would likely be the most efficient solution but would not yield immediate effects due to the substantial stockpiles accumulated by the Houthis. 

• The Houthis are likely to continue attacking ships transiting through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to gain leverage on Saudi Arabia in the current negotiations over the conflict that has opposed the two parties since 2015. The attacks are also a response to the Israeli ground operation in Gaza initiated on October 27, 2023, and contribute to rallying the support of the Yemeni population to the Houthi regime. The attacks against the M/V Gibraltar Eagle on January 15 and the M/V Zografia on January 16 showed the Houthis’ persistent ability to conduct attacks against ships transiting through the Red Sea despite the US-UK strikes. 

• The Houthi attacks have led the shipping companies to reroute to the Cape of Good Hope, increasing the route duration from Shangaï to Rotterdam by ten days and freight costs. Longer transit time, as well as possible port congestion, have caused delays in some companies’ supply chains based in Europe (Ikea), even leading some of them to halt industry production (Tesla, Volvo, Michelin). The drop in supply could very likely be attenuated by the commissioning of additional container ships by maritime freight companies, as 10% of the world’s commercial fleet is currently not in service due to a period of low container demand.

• Iran strongly condemned the first US-UK operation and warned against escalation and further instability in the region. Iran’s foreign minister spokesperson said that the strikes violated Yemen’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and breached international law. Iran has been supporting the Houthi regime in the Yemeni civil war by supplying military equipment (drones, missiles, radars) and providing intelligence training to Houthi forces, and will very likely continue to do so.

• The US-UK strikes are unlikely to cause regional escalation, as Iran’s interests are better served by acting through proxies, and the US administration is unwilling to launch a land operation in an election year and against a backdrop of US military disengagement from the Middle East in favour of the Indo-Pacific region. Iran will very likely continue delivering military material to the Houthis through air and sea means, with the US trying to prevent these deliveries. In Yemen, the US-UK strikes are likely to increase popular support for the Houthis, as shown by the demonstrations in support of the Houthi regime in Sana’a, denouncing foreign military interventionism.