By Sofia Farouk

ABSTRACT
The year 2024 constitutes the biggest election year in history with 83 elections across 78 countries with more than 4 billion people expected to go to the polls, which represents nearly half of the world population.

In this new series, London Politica’s Intelligence Support Group and the Emergent Technologies department collaborate to provide in-depth case studies based on OSINT (Open Source Intelligence Analysis) investigation. 

The case of Taiwan highlights patterns and techniques used in disinformation. This included the use of generative AI, deepfakes, influence operations by hostile states, misleading narratives to undermine trust in democracy and online propaganda spread by social media influencers. However, despite the concentrated influence operation, election authorities, media and independent fact-checkers in Taiwan were largely successful in mitigating the consequences of such disinformation efforts.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• The case of Taiwan highlights patterns and techniques used in disinformation. This included the use of generative AI, deepfakes, influence operations by hostile states, misleading narratives to undermine trust in democracy and online propaganda spread by social media influencers.

• As part of China’s political warfare targeting Taiwan, Chinese actors, and/or pro-China proxies, primarily rely on the manipulation of Taiwan’s information space intended to influence attitudes and perceptions of its citizens.

• One particular study revealed disinformation intended to damage the US reputation within Taiwan as well as change the perception of US-Taiwan relations.

• In the weeks leading up to Taiwan’s January 13 presidential election, a 300-page e-book titled “The Secret History of Tsai Ing-wen” began circulating on social media platforms and email inboxes, containing scandalous and false allegations about the island’s president.

• Professor Austin Wang suggests that Taiwan is being used as a testing ground for information warfare techniques, which might be deployed against other countries in the future.

• This campaign not only aims to damage the Democratic Progressive Party at the ballot box but also serves as a demonstration of China's ability to wage large-scale disinformation campaigns against democratic states.