From the northeastern state of Bahia to the southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul, the year is off to a rocky start in Brazil, where extreme weather has inflicted material, economic and human damage throughout the country.

Starting in December 2021, heavy rainfall and flooding afflicted the southern portion of Bahia. As of 16 January, 190 municipalities were in state of emergency, 27 lives had been lost and over 92 thousand people were displaced.

The rainfall later reached the neighbouring state of Minas Gerais, which saw 25 deaths and over 400 municipalities in state of emergency. Videos of violent landslides and a deadly rockfall circulated on social media, while authorities feared the possibility of new dam ruptures in repeats of the tragic Mariana and Brumadinho disasters.

At the same time, a heatwave rolled over the southern states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Paraná, as well as the midwestern state of Mato Grosso do Sul. The ensuing drought has affected soy and maize harvests, causing losses in the range of US$8 billion for some of the country’s largest agricultural economies.

This year’s La Niña may partly account for the current weather scenario, having also affected Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. However, environmental degradation at the hand of the Bolsonaro administration likely contributed to the severity of the rainfall and heat. 2021 saw the highest level of deforestation in Brazil in 15 years.

The need for assistance in dealing with the regional crises may further strain the often-precarious relationship between Brazil’s federal and subnational governments. Bolsonaro has already been criticized for refusing to leave his vacation to visit Bahia earlier this year.

Economic damages will hinder the post-COVID recovery of Brazil’s economy. Although the loss in agricultural production may not affect the international commodities market, it will increase food prices domestically, adding to the country’s high rates of inflation and food insecurity.

The ongoing events draw attention to the government’s environmental policy in the lead-up to the October general elections and on the heel of France’s conditioning of OECD accession to sustainable practices. A global climate crisis is well underway and its mismanagement risks not only Bolsonaro’s reelection prospects but also Brazil’s growth and reputation.