Two main developments shook up the security landscape in Colombia last week. Firstly, Dairo Antonio Úsuga, also known as Otoniel, was found guilty on drug charges in a US court. Otoniel presided over the Clan del Golfo (Gulf Clan), a drug cartel and paramilitary group active in Northern Colombia. The group has smuggling networks in 28 countries, according to Colombian intelligence reports. 

Prior to leaving office, former conservative President Iván Duque conducted a series of raids against the Gulf Clan, eventually leading to Otoniel’s capture. Otoniel was arguably Colombia’s most notorious cartel leader since Pablo Escobar. He was charged with taking part in a drug cartel and paramilitary group, trafficking cocaine from Colombia to the United States, and being involved in the deaths of hundreds of people in the hemisphere, including over 200 Colombian police and military officers. 

In the Brooklyn federal court, Otoniel stated that “tons of cocaine were moved with my permission or at my direction.” He also detailed his life of violence that allegedly began at age 16 when he was introduced to guerrilla warfare groups in rural areas. Otoniel was extradited from Colombia last May, to be prosecuted in the United States. The government of new leftist President Gustavo Petro has attempted to negotiate with the Gulf Clan, but the group has heightened attacks against police and criminal forces since Otoniel’s arrest. 

The trial has also given momentum to President Petro’s intended reversal of Drug War policies, led by the US government and past conservative governments in Bogotá. Previously, the Drug War in Colombia had centered around crop and manufacturing destruction, the arrest or killing of cartel operatives, and the interdiction of drug supplies and equipment. 

Despite these efforts, cocaine production and coca cultivation hit record highs last year. According to the UNODC, over 204,000 hectares of land are currently dedicated to coca production in Colombia, as of 2021. 

Petro sees this approach as a policy and human rights “failure”. This week, Petro coordinated with the Colombian National Police to change targets. Crop fumigation targets for this year are reduced by 60 percent since 2021 (and 85 percent since 2020). Directives have been given to the National Police to focus efforts on pursuing top cartel leaders, instead of their mid- and low-level operatives. 

Petro has also hinted at providing amnesty and socio-politicial-economic reintegration programs for mid- and low-level operations in criminal armed groups, including drug cartels. Public focus, has been put on cutting off top group leaders and financiers, rather than farmers and distributors. 

Similar directives are excepted to be given to the armed forces within the next few weeks. Cabinet ministers have been rallying the public and Congress behind these measures, hoping to soon pass legislation reflecting the new policy. While conservative leaders in Colombia and the US decry this policy change, academics, non-governmental leaders, and human rights activists have supported it. 

• The Gulf Clan is now leaderless, creating a power vacuum for the cocaine supply in and from Colombia.

• The Gulf Clan will likely break off into smaller groups in the North, or a fight for leadership will soon ensue.

• The Colombian National Police and Armed Forces are expected to follow Petro’s new guidelines on drug eradication, but it remains to be seen if they will comply with his directives.

• Petro will continue receiving pointed criticism from the centre and the right in Colombia and the United States. That may expand to the left and his party, as well, if his new Total Peace approach is unsuccessful.

*cover photo from Al Jazeera.