On the 30th April 2023, Paraguay will head to the polls to pick a new president and Congress (besides 17 governors and subnational legislatures) to serve for the next five years. Current president Mario Abdo Benítez is not eligible to run as the Constitution does not allow for reelection. Regardless, he is already behind in the race to pick his successor. 

That is because, on the 18th of December, the country’s parties held primaries in which Benítez’s conservative Colorado Party picked former Finance Minister Santiago Peña over the current president’s preferred candidate as their presidential nominee. While Benítez supported his current Public Works Minister Arnoldo Wiens, Peña - who had faced and lost against Benítez in the 2018 primary - had the endorsement of former president Horacio Cartes (2013-2018), in whose administration he had served.

This race was significant because the Colorado Party (officially the National Republican Association) has a history of hegemonic control over Paraguayan politics. It was the party of each and every president of the Republic of Paraguay between 1948 and 2008. Today, it finds itself somewhat torn as the race to become its presidential candidate was mirrored in another poll to elect the party’s president. 

For that position, president Benítez was (again) defeated by his predecessor, Horacio Cartes, who solidified his faction’s predominance over the party. The issue is that, last July, Cartes was designated as ‘considerably corrupt’ by the United States. This came up just last Thursday as defeated Wiens met Peña for the traditional “Republican hug” (a public display of party reconciliation ahead of the general elections) despite having previously stated he would only do so “from afar” to avoid “catching anything”. Despite rethorically endorsing party unity, president Benítez has also steered away from public hugs.

This year, it is also significant that the Colorados will face a unified slate of opposition candidates. Despite also having to deal with significant internal tensions, this exercise opens the door for a “bi-coalitionist” political system similar to the one in effect in Argentina and unlike the traditionally fractured multiparty systems that prevail in most of the continent (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, etc.). Currently composed of over 20 parties, La Concertación will be lead by Pedro Efraín Alegre, a member of the Liberal Party and the (losing) candidate of the main opposition tickets in the 2013 and 2018 elections. 

In facing “Santi” Peña, Alegre will be running against a former member of his own Liberal Party. Although he joined Colorado ranks in October 2016 (over a year after joining Cartes’ cabinet), Peña had been affiliated to the Liberal Party since 1996. The Colorado nominee is a 44-year-old economist who holds a master’s degree from Columbia University and previously worked in the Central Bank of Paraguay and at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Having defeated the current minister of Public Works last month, he now has to overcome Alegre, a 60-year-old lawyer who served in that same position in the administration of leftist Fernando Lugo (so far, the only president to have broken the aforementioned streak of the Colorado Party’s hold on power).

Thinking of the coming months in Paraguay:

• As the country gears up for the general election, it will be interesting to follow up on conflicts within the Colorado Party and La Concertación coalition. Especially in the latter, fracticious behaviour and friendly fire may damage candidates’ reputations and cost time and resources that would be better devoted to the presidential contest between Peña and Alegre. The level of unity in each camp may also be consequential in defining the broad contours of Paraguayan politics for the immediate future.

• Although sometimes marginalised in world affairs, it is worth noting how commodity-exporting Paraguay will discuss issues of foreign policy this electoral season. 

• China might become a key distinguishing factor as Efraín Alegre suggests he could lead the country closer to the mainland People’s Republic and Peña supports maintaining ties with Taiwan while recognising the need to diversify export destinations (Paraguay is currently the largest country to recognise the ROC (Taiwan) over the mainland PRC). 

• As always, Brazil will play a significant role in foreign policy and economic debates as both candidates are critical of the current administration's renegotiations of the treaty that governs the binational Itaipú dam.