George Barber

The vast majority of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) voted on the 12th of October to condemn Russia’s declaration of annexation of Ukrainian territory after holding referendums that are widely seen as illegitimate. Only one Latin American state voted against the motion, Nicaragua, but three states abstained, Bolivia, Cuba, and Honduras. However, prominent leaders of many more countries in the region have voiced concerns about the Western sanctions intended to cripple Russia. Among them are the Presidents of Brazil, Argentina, and México, the three largest economies in Latin America. The decision by many Latin American leaders to not impose sanctions has been helpful to Putin in the context of the heavy sanctions levied against Russia, who has welcomed their neutrality in the conflict.

Brazil

The administration of President Jair Bolsonaro, who is facing a challenging campaign for reelection in Brazil, voted in favour of condemning the Russian annexation of Ukrainian territory. Despite voting to condemn his action, Bolsonaro has not been an enemy of Putin over the course of the war. In late August, Russia thanked Bolsonaro for maintaining a posture of neutrality and not joining in with Western sanctions directed at Russia. Bolsonaro has been critical of the economic sanctions, saying that they are “unilateral”, “selective”, and “contrary to international law”. On top of that, he claims that they simply haven’t worked out. Bolsonaro says his interests are in maintaining neutrality and the food security of Brazil, a country largely dependent on Russian fertilisers that are key to agricultural production. For these reasons, he has requested the suspension of sanctions against Russia, saying the solution to the war will instead be reached with negotiation and dialogue between the warring parties. Bolsonaro has also been critical of the United Nations, saying that it must be reformed in order to find the world peace that Brazil is searching for. Bolsonaro’s challenger for the presidency, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has a similar stance towards Russia, meaning Brazil would likely not shift on this issue regardless of who wins the runoff election at the end of October. Lula, who has also been a proponent of stronger diplomatic efforts to negotiate an end to the crisis, has been critical of both the West and of Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy himself, saying, “He (Zelensky) is as responsible as Putin. Because in a war there is not only one to blame. If he didn't want the war, he would have negotiated a little more. That’s how it is.” Of the West, Lula has stated that the expansion of NATO is to blame for the war, coupled with the lack of diplomatic effort from Western leaders to meaningfully dialogue with Putin. Putin has been grateful for the neutrality of Brazil under Bolsonaro, and Russia will have similar relations with Brazil going forward regardless of whether Bolsonaro or Lula is elected president. 

Argentina

Argentine President Alberto Fernández has also refused to impose economic or diplomatic sanctions on Russia in wake of its invasion and subsequent annexation of Ukrainian territory. Fernández is also acutely aware of the growing difficulty of feeding his people at home. Speaking of the war in Ukraine he said, “They shoot missiles at each other and we go hungry.” Fernández’s call for the end of the conflict echoes the sentiments of both Bolsonaro and other leaders calling for peace and a more stable world economy. Fernández stated, “It is no longer a conflict between NATO and Russia; it transcends those limits, it affects the whole world, and the world cannot look at the consequences without fear.” Argentina dealt with staggering inflation  before either the COVID-19 pandemic or war in Ukraine began, and is especially unequipped to cope with rising costs of energy and food. Fernández has highlighted that the economic shocks of the COVID-19 and war in Ukraine in the time span of a few short years have caused populations all over the Global South to suffer and be put at further risk of hunger or poverty. 

Mexico 

Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), President of Mexico, has also taken a neutral stance to the Russian invasion. Like other leaders in the region, he has called for more dialogue between the West and Putin with the goal of ending the war in mind. AMLO is also conscious of rising global inflation and the subsequent effects on México and other states in the global south, claiming that economic sanctions have only aggravated the conflict while driving food and fuel shortages. The Mexican president has voiced his opinion about the West’s role in the conflict, including that of the United States. After choosing to not attend  the Summit of the Americas hosted by President Biden in the US, the strain in relations with the US appears to have been aggravated by the war. AMLO stated, “The great powers position themselves in the face of the conflict only to serve their hegemonic interests.” Economic sanctions are not the only issue for AMLO. The shipment of arms to Ukraine is also not seen favourably by the Mexican leader, saying, “They have only served to aggravate the conflict, produce more suffering for victims, their families and refugees, to aggravate the shortage of food and energy and to drive global inflation, all phenomena that harm the vast majority of the peoples of the world.” Like Bolsonaro, AMLO also has been critical of the United Nations, citing a lack of diplomatic effort aimed at resolving the conflict. “Politics was invented,” he claims, “to avoid war. More dialogue must be insisted upon.” However, AMLO does not believe that the UN has been as protagonistic as it should be in searching for a settlement between Russia and Ukraine. In his opinion, right now the UN should be working harder than ever to promote dialogue and a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, but he and other Latin American leaders remain disenchanted by the lack of negotiations taking place. 

Peru 

Peru was another country to vote to condemn the Russian annexation of Ukrainian territory. However Pedro Castillo, President of Peru, has echoed sentiments similar to those of Bolsonaro, Fernández, and AMLO regarding the desire for more negotiations to end the war in light of the pain felt from the unstable world economy. He said, “Peru calls for the cease of the war between Russia and Ukraine…There are other better mechanisms to solve differences.” While Peru has denounced Russia’s invasion as illegitimate and irrespectful of the sovereignty of Ukraine, Castillo has stated that the sanctions against Russia are illegitimate outside of those approved by the UN Security Council. Sanctions are seen as damaging to developing economies as food and energy prices rise, especially for farmers who can’t get fertilisers for their crops, which will further contribute to higher food prices and shortages. 

Venezuela

Nicolás Maduro is not a friend of the West, and is not even recognized as the rightful leader of Venezuela anymore by the United States. While other Latin American states have warmer relations with their neighbours to the north, Venezuela is not going to get along well with Western countries. In fact, Maduro’s Venezuela is a major ally of Russia. Earlier this year in February, Venezuela promised military cooperation with Russia shortly before the invasion of Ukraine began. The Maduro regime in Venezuela is currently experiencing all kinds of sanctions already, so unlike his other Latin American counterparts, voicing displeasure with Western sanctions is nothing new. He has called the sanctions against Russia arrogant and labeled  them “economic suicide” for Europe and the US, saying, ““We are preparing ourselves…to face the impact of the boomerang effect on the Western and world economy, as a result of the aberrant sanctions against the Russian economy. The sanctions are aberrant, but there is a lot of arrogance in the West, a lot of arrogance.” Venezuela’s full support of Russia is not likely to stop any time soon. However, their ability to provide oil to countries with higher fuel prices could prove to be a useful bargaining chip.

Vaccine Diplomacy

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia has used the demand for vaccines to actively strengthen its relationships in Latin America. Among other states, Mexico, Argentina, and Peru have all received millions of doses of the Russian vaccine Sputnik V. While the United States and China also played major roles in meeting demand for COVID vaccines in the region, Russia did not sit idly by, using the developing situation to exert its influence. In the rush to get their populations vaccinated, Russian assistance was welcomed by Latin American leaders, which could now contribute to their decisions to not be supportive of sanctions against Russia. 

Summary and Implications

The overall reaction to Russia’s invasion and ensuing economic sanctions has not been partisan, with a very prominent right-wing leader in Jair Bolsonaro criticising the sanctions regime, while left-wing leaders have varied in their responses. Gabriel Boric of Chile has called for peace, but not for sanctions to be ended despite rising food costs. On the other hand, other left-wing figures like former president of Bolivia Evo Morales have fully supported Putin, recently wishing him happy birthday and adding, “The dignified, free and anti-imperialist peoples accompany their (Russia’s) fight against the armed interventionism of the US and NATO. The world will find peace when the US stops threatening people.” Given these differing views, partisan loyalties cannot necessarily predict a leader’s foreign policy towards Russia. 

These prominent Latin American leaders have all expressed concern and disenchantment with the current state of affairs regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Most have called for more diplomacy and the end of hostilities, with the feeling that more diplomatic effort from both sides could have prevented the war. As sanctions continue to be levied against Russia, these leaders could start to put more pressure on conversations to end the sanctions, especially if food insecurity gets worse in their respective states. It is likely that they all remain neutral in the conflict, except for Maduro, who is already Putin’s ally, although economic considerations will not be a minor issue and will play a big role in guiding how they manoeuvre this conflict.