On Thursday, the 5th of January, Ovidio Guzmán López, also known as El Ratón, was arrested on Thursday the 5th of January 2023, by Federal Forces in Jesús María, a town close to the city of Culiacán, in the state of Sinaloa, in an operation in which 10 soldiers and 19 criminal suspects died. According to information given by the Mexican Government on Friday, another 35 people were injured and 21 were arrested. 

Guzmán is accused of being the leader of the criminal group, Los Menores, a member of the Sinaloa Cartel led by his father Joaqín Guzmán Loera, also known as El Chapo. Ovidio was also arrested on similar charges back in 2019 but was quickly released due to violent backlash by the Sinaloa Cartel. Ovidio was also wanted by the United States as the government offered $5million dollars for information on him. According to the Mexican Secretary of Defense, this arrest was the result of six months of surveillance work which was applauded by the US Government as John Kirby, the US National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications, stated “we’re certainly grateful”. 

His arrest unleashed storms of violence as the Sinaloa cartel protested his arrest and his move to the prison of Altiplano in the town of Almoloya de Juárez. His father, Chapo Guzmán, escaped from the very same prison in 2015.  We have seen shootings between the cartel members and the federal forces, roadblocks and vehicle fires which have brought the city of Culiacán to a standstill. Criminal organisations, notably the Sinaloa Cartel, carried out 19 blockades, known as narcobloqueos, and armed attacks in different parts of the city of Culiacán. These attacks are known as the Culiacanazo dos. 

All flights from the International Federal Airport of Culiacán were cancelled on Thursday following the outbreak of violence. Furthermore, Aeroméxico flights from Culiacán, Los Mochis, Ciudad Obregón, and Mazatlán were also affected on Friday. Moreover, his arrest had a negative economic effect on the city of Culiacán as it led to a loss of over 1,500,000,000 Mexican Peso ($78,389,359.50 USD) for businesses as they were unable to open on Friday.

On Friday, Guzmán was sentenced to 60 days in preventative prison by Gregorio Salazar Hernández, judge of the Federal Criminal Justice Center of Almoloya de Juárez, the maximum security prison where Guzmán is being held. The 60 day period will come to an end on March the 5th 2023 during which time the US Government will have the opportunity to present documents to request the extradition of Ovidio Guzmán. 

Also on Friday, we saw the president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador stated "We send our solidarity, our support, especially to the people of Sinaloa, so that they can recover normality as soon as possible,". In addition to this, he stated that no members of the US forces collaborated in capturing Guzmán.

What can we expect to see in the coming weeks and months?

• For the foreseeable future, Ovidio Guzmán will remain in the hands of Mexican authorities. If the United States does not formalise its extradition request for Guzmán before the 5th of March 2023, Guzmán will likely be released. 

• It is probable that the Sinaloa Cartel will continue with its violent attacks in the hope that such disturbances to civilian lives and businesses will lead to the freedom of Guzmán as we saw back in 2019 as the government did not have the ability to deal with the high levels of violence. This makes us wonder whether Mexican authorities will release Guzmán if the violence continues. 

• If Guzmán remains in prison in Mexico or extradited to the US, it is probale that this will potentially improve AMLO’s image in regard to tackling organised crime having been crititised for his lack of action to organised crime during his presidency.