On December 6th, 2022, during the Mercosur summit, Uruguayan President Lacalle Pou stated that “[Mercosur] could not be an obstacle for countries to progress. We are one of the most protectionist zones in the world. The one who stays still, falls behind”. Alberto Fernández, Head of the Argentinian state, quickly answered Lacalle Pou’s words, emphasising the importance of “abiding by the rules” and adding that “when you play football, there are rules and they should be obeyed”. What seemed to be an escalation of a regional confrontation quickly became an exchange of football jokes and metaphors between both Presidents. Fernández continued with his football speech, explaining that “It is not possible for the player to grab the ball inside the area, because that is a penalty. One can allege that “that's my way of playing football”, but that is not how it works. Mercosur’s rules say that those agreements should have another treatment mechanism.” Lacalle Pou responded that “When Fernández said that we should comply with the rules as in football, I would like to see the VAR [Video Assistant Referee] to check who has obeyed the rules of Mercosur.”, to what Fernández jokingly replied by asking who was in charge of the VAR. 

Despite the football jokes and cozy pictures together afterward between Fernández and Lacalle Pou, there is a lot to unravel from the confrontation between Uruguay and its commercial block partners. How can we understand this conflict?

Background

Even though there have been historic tensions amongst Uruguay and Mercosur members, this episode in particular started at the end of November 2022, when Uruguayan press informed that the Minister of Foreign Relations of Uruguay, Francisco Bustillo would request Uruguay’s entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, also known as CPTPP or TPP11. The CPTPP is the successor agreement of the TPP after the U.S. abandoned it, therefore being a new regional agreement of free trade with the ulterior goal of deepening the commercial ties between the signatory countries in those areas not covered by pre existing agreements amongst them. The treaty members include  Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, Japan, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam. In the face of this, the Foreign Ministries  of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay published a joint letter in which they “communicate to the Coordinación Nacional de Uruguay (National Coordination of Uruguay) that the three countries reserve the right to take steps judged as necessary to defend their interests in the juridic and commercial fields.”

Despite these warnings, the President of Uruguay doubled all bets by saying that his country would continue its request to become a member of the CPTPP, arguing that he understood but did not share the claims of its commercial partners. 

The Mercosur Summit

On December 5th, the Mercosur Summit where Uruguay would give Argentina the pro tempore presidency of the organisation finally began. This event promised heated exchanges between the official delegations as it was the first discussion table between the commercial block members since tensions erupted. The Uruguayan Foreign Minister,  Francisco Bustillo, was the first to speak and defend Uruguay’s decision to request entry to the CPTPP, emphasising the Mercosur’s urgent need to modernise to deal with past, current, and future challenges. In addition, he called the organisation members to question its current status, arguing that if they did not then “[Mercosur] will be irretrievably condemned to failure, to irrelevance.”

These expressions were quickly replied to by the other foreign ministers. . Santiago Cafiero, Argentina’s Minister  of Foreign Affairs, pointed out his country’s concern due to Uruguay’s attitude, which he defined as “unilateral” and accused them of being the path that could lead to its “break” from Mercosur, increasing the confrontation tone reigning over the summit. Julio César Arriola, Paraguay’s Foreign Minister, followed the same tone by calling Uruguay’s initiatives “unilateral”, “inadequate”, “counterproductive, and damaging”, affirming that they “oppose the fundamental and normative principles of Mercosur” and hinder the block’s strength. On his part, Brazil’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Carlos França was more careful with his words, pointing out that his country was worried because of the “legal and commercial problems” caused by Uruguay and its “individual negotiations”. 

On the following day, the confrontation between the Presidents of Uruguay and Argentina took place, surrounded by football jokes and pictures together that tried to hide the discussions and controversies from the previous days.

Current scenario and the future

After the Mercosur summit, the confrontation does not seem to have calmed down. The day after, Uruguay published a final declaration by itself, in which it reaffirms its intentions to pursue commercial opportunities outside Mercosur, distancing itself from the joint declaration of the rest of the block’s members. Moreover, the VicePresident of the World Bank for Latin America and the Caribbean, Carlos Felipe Jaramillo, seemingly supported Lacalle Pou, as he stated that MERCOSUR lacked “dynamism and chaining.” 

Despite the appearance that Uruguay may be easily successful in its strive for commercial agreements outside Mercosur without facing important consequences, we have to take into account two important aspects. Firstly, in 2022 Brazil and Argentina were the country’s second and third biggest export destinations, presenting an interannual increase of 4.7% and 117.6% respectively. Secondly, the arrival of Lula da Silva to power means the return of Mercosur to the top of Brazil’s foreign policy agenda, therefore dedicating stronger efforts in coordination with Argentina and Paraguay to contain Lacalle Pou’s Uruguay, following Lula’s emphasis on Latin American integration and multilateralism and its ultimate goal of rebuilding Brazil’s leadership in the region and its international reputation. These two aspects will most certainly entail obstacles for Lacalle Pou’s strategy of evading Mercosur hurdles, and may also make him reconsider his foreign policy strategy in the matter. In the meantime, we can expect to continue to see the failed attempts of Mercosur  members to hide their tensions and confrontations with, of course, football.