Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi arrived in Moscow on January 19 for his first visit to Russia since his election in August last year, and the first by an Iranian president since 2017.

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov hailed the visit's importance in a press conference on Monday, emphasising that "it's time to resume contacts at the highest level" following a dampening of relations between Russia and Iran due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Naturally, increasing cooperation between the two nations remains the focal point of the visit. Raisi departed for Moscow on Wednesday morning with optimism, declaring that the trip "could be a milestone in the promotion and strengthening of relations with Russia."

In a later meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the visiting Iranian President presented the draft of a 20-year strategic cooperation agreement to his Russian counterpart, which seeks to cement bilateral ties between them. This follows a similar agreement signed in 2021 between Iran and China, and signifies a progression in the Raisi administration's strategy of regionalism and "looking to the East" as an alternative to Iran's vagarious relations with Western powers. 

Top of the agenda:

Developing trade links with regional and Eastern powers remains a critical démarche in Iran's strategic pivot Eastward — and Tehran is particularly eager to deepen its economic ties with Moscow. 

Russia is a leading member of — and often Iran's advocate among — important regional organisations, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the Russia-dominated Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), with which increasing integration has the potential to provide Tehran with a vital source of economic leverage against the backdrop of ongoing international isolation. 

More specifically, Russia’s backing is likely essential to countering the United States' crushing sanctions regime against the Islamic Republic. Raisi has urged that bridging Russo-Iranian interests "will prevent unilateralism in the world," tacitly echoing a statement via Twitter earlier this week by Iran's National Security Secretary Ali Shamkhani, emphasising the importance of economic cooperation between Moscow and Tehran to countering unilateralism. Unilateralism is a term commonly employed by Iranian officials and others referring to the United States and its policies towards Iran. The subtle swipe at Washington has been a prominent watchword throughout the President's visit to Moscow. 

Furthermore, Raisi's diplomatic visit comes as talks for the revival of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal are underway in Vienna, in which Tehran largely relies on Moscow's backing. 

Since April 2021, Iran has been engaged in negotiations with the P4+1 powers — China, Russia, France, the United Kingdom plus Germany — and the United States to revive the beleaguered Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which foundered following the US' unilateral withdrawal from the agreement under former President Donald Trump in 2018.

Russia remains a key player in the Vienna talks, most notably serving as a mediator between the US and Iran. Moscow has generally backed Tehran’s demands for lifting US sanctions, prompting speculation  among Iranian pundits that Raisi's visit constitutes part of a broader strategy to lobby for Russian support and thereby bolster Iran's position in the context of the nuclear deal. In a slew of televised remarks on Wednesday, Putin stated that it was "very important" to him to learn Raisi's stance on the JCPOA, which seems to be in line with this theory. 

On the other hand, others have raised concerns that Raisi's visit to Moscow would consolidate Russia's growing influence on Iranian foreign policy, even suggesting that Russia was pursuing its own goals and priorities in Vienna. For instance, Heshmatullah Falahat Pisheh, the former head of the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, warned last month that "Russia initially played the role of mediator, but gradually they defined the sphere of [JCPOA] for themselves," stressing the need for Iran to set its own terms for the JCPOA and in negotiations with US officials to protect its national interests. 

What is ultimately clear is that Raisi faces the delicate challenge of balancing the pursuit of his strategic aims with the need to avoid leaning too much on the "East" to do its bidding, lest Iran’s foreign policy falls further under the sway of Russian influence.