After almost four years of political deadlock and five elections, the end of 2022 brought about major changes for Israel. On December 29th, the state formed its 37th government. Led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the new government is composed of six parties: Likud, United Torah Judaism, Shas, Religious Zionist Party, Otzma Yehudit and Noam. As a result, Netanyahu’s coalition is expected to control 65 out of 120 Parliament seats. Its composition raised several concerns, particularly due to the presence of ultra-nationalist, right-wing, and illiberal parties. While previous Netanyahu governments have already maintained a permanent Israeli military presence in the occupied West Bank and expanded illegal settlements, the new government has declared its intention to go much further. Its policies include consolidating executive power, annexing parts of the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OTP), unbridled settlement expansion and dismantling vital democratic institutions.

That being said, the new Israeli government and its policies challenge the notion of shared democratic values with the United States, putting Washington in an awkward position. While the U.S. has traditionally been a staunch supporter of Israel, its current government's vision and actions threaten to undermine the long-standing relationship between the two countries. Therefore, how can Israel reconcile being the ‘oasis of democracy’ in the Middle East with undemocratic parties in its government? And how will this impact its foreign relations, particularly with the US?

Political Changes in Israel

The new Israeli government has been quickly labelled by the media as “the most right-wing parliament in its history.” The far-right alliance, once on the fringes of Israeli politics, now helped bolster Netanyahu’s popularity. On the other hand, the Jewish left-leaning parties known for advocating negotiations with the Palestinians suffered significant losses. For example, the Israeli Labour Party, advocating for Palestinian statehood and once a dominant force in Israeli politics, has now received merely four seats. Furthermore, the anti-occupation Meretz party did not win any seats. 

While gaining popularity due to his disciplined electoral campaign, Netanyahu remains a deeply polarising figure. After twelve consecutive years in office, Israel’s longest serving-leader was toppled a year ago by an eight-party coalition united by a distaste for him. The ideologically diverse coalition however due to infighting, while Netanyahu served as an opposition leader. 

Adding to his troubles, Netanyahu is now facing corruption charges, namely fraud, breach of trust and accepting bribes in a series of scandals involving media moguls and wealthy associates. While the trial is expected to continue for years, if convicted of the charges, Netanyahu risks up to 10 years in prison.

The election results, announced in November, have been overshadowed by a deadly attack in the occupied West Bank. This time has been accompanied by an upsurge of Israeli-Palestinian violence, leading to several violent incidents that resulted in the death of four Palestinians and a minor injury to an Israeli police officer in a stabbing attack in Jerusalem’s Old City. The incident has been immediately used by right-wing politicians to promise a stricter approach to Palestinians.

Netanyahu’s key partner present in the coalition, Itmar Ben-Gvir of the Religious Zionism party tweeted: “The time has come to restore security to the streets. The time has come for a terrorist who goes out to carry out an attack to be taken out!”

Ben-Gvir’s appointment as the new Minister of National Security has also raised concerns about many Israelis and abroad. Trying to capitalise on the spike of violence in the West Bank, he now is trying to grant immunity to Israeli soldiers who shoot Palestinians, as well as to impose the death penalty on Palestinians attacking Jews. An extremist lawmaker, he has built his career on aggressive confrontations with Palestinians and ultranationalist, anti-Arab views. As a lawyer, he has spent most of his career defending extremist Jews who have committed violence and terror acts against Palestinians. It has also been reported that his views were so extreme in his youth that the army banned him from compulsory military service. He is a known disciple of Meir Kahane - a leader of an openly racist Kach party, which was outlawed in Israeli politics in 1994 and classified as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation (FTO) by both Israel and the US. As reported by The Jerusalem Post, Ben-Gvir himself has a criminal record, having been convicted in 2006 of supporting a terror organisation and inciting racism. As an admirer of Hebron mass murdered Maruch Goldstein, he also advocated for the expulsion of all Israeli Jews whom he deems disloyal to the state.

His views also include advocating for the end of Palestinian autonomy in parts of the occupied West Bank, maintaining Israel’s occupation indefinitely, and calling for deportation of Arab lawmakers that he labelled “terrorists.” He has also recently been witnessed brandishing a gun in a Palestinian neighbourhood while urging the police to shoot Palestinian stone-throwers. These views, as well as strong and frequent media appearances, have nonetheless contributed to his popularity.

Shuki Friedman, an expert on Israel’s far-right from the Jewish People Policy Institute, has commented: 

“He is a populist demagogue. He plays on the sentiments of hate and fear of Arabs. He interviews well, he is good on camera, and he has had plenty of screen time that has given him legitimacy.”

Furthermore, Thabet Abu Rass, the co-director of the Abraham Initiatives promoting Jewish-Arab coexistence, commented:“The mainstreaming of figures such as Ben-Gvir is not only a threat to Israel’s Arab citizens, but to the country as a whole.”

He further added, that:

“By branding Arab members of parliament as traitors who should be expelled, Ben-Gvir delegitimizes the political participation of Arab citizens — who make up around 20% of Israel’s population — and the possibility of Jewish-Arab partnerships.

“It’s very dangerous for the whole Israeli society,” he said. “It’s going to bring about the collapse of democracy.”

Ben-Gvir, despite convictions for incitement and supporting a terror group, has now become the Minister of National Security. This puts him in charge of Israel’s domestic police and border police in the occupied West Bank - home to three million Palestinians. Therefore, as the police oversee holy sites in Jerusalem, his appointment is speculated to be a source of tension.

Domestic Consequences

The results of elections certainly reflect a shift to the right in Israeli politics. One of the contributing factors can be identified in the failure of Yair Lapid’s government, accused by Likud and Religious Zionism of weakness. This shift will certainly affect numerous political issues. The most notable will be increasing settler activity, Anti-Arab policies as well as pushes for expulsion. This is likely to backfire in increased violence between Israeli and Palestinians, further weakening the prospects for a two-state solution. On top of that, the new right-wing government will also likely roll back the achievements of its predecessors on issues such as women’s and LGBTQ rights and the environment. As noted by DAWN MENA, the extremist members of the new Israeli government are promoting and mainstreaming ideologies that endorse racism, xenophobia, homophobia, religious coercion, and even ethnic cleansing.

Another significant consequence of the new government will be the weakening of Israel’s judicial systems, which have already received a massive reaction both domestically and internationally. As noted by AP news, “the party has promised to enact changes to Israeli law that could halt Netanyahu’s corruption trial and make the charges disappear.” Apart from cleaning Netanyahu of his charges and granting him immunity, the goal would be to concentrate more power in the hands of lawmakers and give the coalition more control over who becomes a judge. Critics fear that the judges will be appointed based on their loyalty to the government or prime minister, and say that Netanyahu has a conflict of interest in the legislation.

This month, lawmakers have already voted on the bill's first reading, which passed 63 to 47, with the votes in favour coming entirely from the coalition. While the bill would need to pass two more rounds of voting before becoming law, a process taking even several months, it has already resulted in mass protests. The demonstration opposing the bill gathered around the Parliament and has been around for over two weeks already. Hundreds of thousands have joined the protests around the country, leading to concerns about the prospect of political violence rising and even calls for restraint from the United States. 

Implications for Israeli Foreign Relations 

While religious Zionists may have brought Netanyahu success in elections, it may lead to trouble when it comes to Israel’s foreign relations. In particular, the far-right positions held now in the government are likely to antagonise the largely liberal American Jews. The US has been a key ally and supporter of Israel since its establishment in 1948, providing significant military and economic assistance as well as diplomatic support. While the “special relation” has been rooted in shared democratic values and mutual interests, the Israel also served as a bulwark to the US from perceived threats from the Middle East. America’s unwavering support for Israel has also been seen as a reflection of the power of the pro-Israel lobby in Washington and the influence of the military-industrial complex. As the new far-right government has been elected, advocating undemocratic and extremist policies, this puts a strain on their strategic cooperation. 

The US President Joe Biden, known for his hot-and-cold relationship with Netanyahu, has maintained a close alliance with Israel, while advocating for the peace process with the Palestinians. Nevertheless, since the formation of the 37th Israeli government, the Biden administration has taken some steps to pressure Israel, such as criticising settlement expansion and restoring aid to the Palestinians, which was cut under the previous Trump administration.

As put forward by The Jerusalem Post, “Elevating these heirs and disciples of the late Kahane, who preached and practised violence and hatred will further alienate all but the most extreme among American Jewry.” Its editor-in-chief, Yaakov Katz, called Ben-Gvir “a danger to the state of Israel. He is the modern Israeli version of an American white supremacist and a European fascist.” Israelis also voice concerns about Netanyahu’s responsibility for driving a deep and growing chasm between American Jewry and Israel.

“This is a very significant crossroads,” commented Jeremy Ben-Ami, the president of J Street - a liberal Jewish group in Washington. “The potential for specific actions that could be taken by this government, these are the moments when the relationship between the bulk of American Jews and the state of Israel begins to really fray. So I’m very afraid.”

Despite that, Netanyahu appears unconcerned, arguing that American Jews are of diminishing importance to his vision of Israel. This dismissive attitude appears not only short-sighted but also reckless, as without American support, Israel’s security can be jeopardised. Thus, the question remains: will Netanyahu’s hubris backfire, potentially damaging Israel’s relationship with its key ally? 

Conclusion

While 2022 saw the most Palestinians killed by Israelis since 2006, the recently elected members of the far-right Israeli coalition openly call for ethnic cleansing of Palestinians. Alongside the unprecedented expansion of illegal Israeli settlements, increasing settler violence and continuing displacement of Palestinians, it is safe to say Israel’s repression against Palestinians will only increase in the near future.

The recent changes in Israeli politics and following developments plunged Israel into one of its most bitter domestic crises, with both sides insisting that the future of democracy is at stake. While the domestic impact is visibly heavy, and Palestinians will be the ones paying the heaviest price for Israel’s electoral choices, the impact will also be visible in foreign relations. It is a particularly significant policy risk for the United States. Therefore, the U.S. must take a proactive approach to communicate clear policy guidelines, redefine the limits of the "special relationship" with Israel, and safeguard its credibility in promoting a liberal, rules-based international order.