The ongoing conflict in Yemen has been a significant source of instability in the region since 2014, when Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, seized control of much of northern Yemen, including the capital city of Sana'a. In response, Saudi Arabia, along with a coalition of Arab states, launched a military campaign in 2015 to restore the internationally recognized government of Yemen. The conflict has resulted in widespread violence and humanitarian crisis, with millions of people facing famine, disease, and displacement. 

Background

In March 2015, Saudi Arabia – backed by the US – intervened in Yemen, to suppress the Houthi rebels and reinstate the ousted President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi. The Kingdom portrays its interventions in Yemen as a Sunni regional effort to diminish the threat of Iran and Shiism in the Gulf. However, scholars reporting on the Middle East, such as Darwich (2018), argue that the reality is far more complex. Darwich argues that this “intervention is driven by a non-material need: Saudi leadership aims to assert the Kingdom’s status as a regional power in the Middle East”. Thus, the Kingdom’s persistent intervention in Yemen is part of a broader goal to establish regional hegemony. Furthermore, the consequences of this war have been devastating. After more than 6 years of conflict, “18 million Yemenis are at risk of malnutrition and disease and 85,000 young children have already starved to death”, causing it to be one of the world’s worst humanitarian disasters. 

What has prompted the change? 

The recent momentum gained in the peace negotiations is attributed in part to the agreement brokered by China for Saudi Arabia and Iran to re-establish diplomatic ties. This historic deal between the two archrivals has the potential to upend the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and has been widely hailed as a significant breakthrough in diplomatic relations. The agreement has paved the way for the reopening of embassies and the resumption of diplomatic communications between the two countries. The improved relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran has also had a positive impact on the peace process in Yemen, with the two countries now working together to find a solution to the long-standing conflict. This marks a significant departure from previous years when the two nations were locked in a bitter proxy war in Yemen, backing opposing sides in the conflict. The renewed diplomatic efforts between the two nations are seen as a positive step towards resolving the conflict in Yemen and establishing a more stable and peaceful Middle East.

How realistic is peace? 

The recent proposal of a new peace plan for Yemen by Saudi Arabia, following talks with the Houthi rebels in Oman, has been widely praised and acknowledged. The plan includes a ceasefire, the reopening of Sanaa airport, and the lifting of the naval and air blockade imposed by the Saudi-led coalition. The Houthi rebels have welcomed the proposal, similarly Muammar al-Eryani, Yemen's Information Minister, expressed his approval of Saudi Arabia's endeavors to achieve all-inclusive peace in Yemen. He stated that he has complete faith in Yemen's strong relationship with Saudi Arabia and its leadership. Furthermore, Hans Grundberg, the UN envoy for Yemen, described the ongoing efforts, including the Saudi and Omani talks in Sanaa, as “the closest Yemen has been to real progress towards lasting peace” since the war began.

Although there has been renewed hope for peace, it is pertinent to remember that the ongoing conflict in Yemen has been marked by its complexity, making it clear that a permanent ceasefire between the Saudi-led coalition and the Houthi rebels would not necessarily bring an end to all fighting. Other factions, including Al-Qaeda, are still actively engaged in their own battles. Additionally, predicting what will happen next in Yemen is difficult, but, according to some commentators, the prospect of a peaceful resolution appears unlikely. The Houthis are expected to continue their military campaign to seize control of Yemen in the near future, and there is a possibility of Saudi Arabia aligning with the Houthis to weaken the UAE's influence in the southern region. Although the deal with Iran and talks with the Houthis may seem positive on the surface from an international diplomacy standpoint, Iran leveraged Saudi fatigue in Yemen to gain political and diplomatic support for the Houthis, who remain part of Iran's "Axis of Resistance." If the Houthis gain more international political recognition and the Saudi-led coalition is removed, Iran may have a greater chance to expand its influence in Yemen with the approval of Western powers. The international community is keen for a "success story" in Yemen, even if it means a false political settlement that will likely prolong the civil war. While a deal with the Houthis might be Saudi Arabia's last-ditch effort to withdraw from Yemen, it could ultimately position Iran to threaten regional and global security. More importantly, it could put Yemen on course for an extended conflict that creates vast ungoverned spaces.

Despite this, the recent developments have created the momentum for a serious push towards ending the war, with the talks in Sana'a playing a pivotal role in the peace process. If successful, such a peace agreement would undoubtedly be a significant milestone in bringing much-needed stability and relief to the long-suffering people of Yemen. However, it remains to be seen whether all parties involved will agree to the terms of the proposed peace deal and adhere to them in the long run.