Since the mid-70’s Morocco and the Polisario Front have been engaged in a conflict of varying intensity over the territory of the Western Sahara. Western Sahara, a former Spanish colony rich in phosphate with a long coastline with vast fishing waters and potentially large reserves of oil and natural gas, is claimed by both the Sahrawi people – represented by the Polisario – and the Kingdom of Morocco. Rising tensions between the two parties have reached a new boiling point, with the resumption of hostilities in 2020.

History of the Polisario

The history of Sahrawi self-determination can be traced back to Mohammed Sidi Ibrahim Basiri, the first activist to push against the Spanish colonial power for the independence of Western Sahara. Basiri, having created the Harakat Tahrir Saqiyah al-Hamra’ wa Wadi al Dhabab, called for the dissolution of traditional tribal and nomadic social structures as a means of building a national Sahrawi consciousness. The Harakat Tahrir staged its most consequential demonstration in June 1970 in the al-Zamlah square in al-`Ayun - the independence protest provoked  a brutal response from the Spanish colonial authorities, who are accused of killing at least 12 protestors. Following the Zamlah Massacre, the Harakat Tahrir was quickly suppressed and Basiri was taken into Spanish custody, never to be seen again. 

Taking inspiration from Basiri’s fledgling liberation movement, the Frente Popular para la Liberación de Saguia el-Hamra y Río de Oro (Polisario Front) was established in 1973 by a group of Sahrawi nationalists led by El-Ouali Mustafa Sayed. The Polisario Front, in its first manifesto, proclaimed that it was a “unique expression of the masses, opting for revolutionary violence and armed struggle as the means by which the Sahrawi Arab African people can recover total liberty and foil the manoeuvres of Spanish colonialism.” Following a guerilla war, the Polisario’s struggle resulted in the Spanish withdrawal from the territory, with agreements in place with the Sahrawi people pertaining to the Polisario’s right to govern the territory in return for economic concessions for Spain. Spain, however, backtracked on its agreements, instead reaching an agreement with Morocco and Mauritania, transferring the responsibilities and powers of government to the two nations. This incident, known as the Madrid Accords, led to the invasion and occupation of Western Sahara by Morocco and Mauritania in 1975. The Madrid Accords were condemned by the international community, with the ICJ and the UN ruling against Moroccan and Mauritanian claims over Western Sahara. 

Recognised by the UN as the legitimate representative of the Sahrawis, the Polisario Front, from exile, announced the establishment of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) in 1976. Continuing its quest for independence, the Polisario signed a peace treaty with Mauritania in 1979, leading to Mauritania's withdrawal from the territory and recognition of the SADR. As the conflict between the two remaining parties intensified, the international community began taking greater interest; in 1991, a UN-brokered cease-fire was agreed upon between the Polisario Front and the Kingdom of Morocco. In addition to the cease-fire, the UN promised a referendum for the Sahrawi people, giving them the option to choose between independence, autonomy within Morocco, or integration with Morocco. The referendum, which was to be conducted by MINURSO, never took place due to disputes between the two parties on who was eligible to vote. 

Following a decade of political gridlock, the Polisario Front returned to active military resistance in 2020 following what is known as the Guerguerat incident, where Morocco launched a military operation to clear peaceful protestors from the Guerguerat village. The resumption of armed conflict between the two parties has led to military confrontations in the Western Sahara region with recent military operations being launched in areas such as Grarat Farsig and Abiret Tenouched.

16th Polisario Congress

Against the backdrop of the new Polisario-Moroccan War, the Polisario Front, and by extension the SADR, held its 16th General Congress, the first Congress to be held during a time of active hostilities. Held in Tindouf between 13 - 22 January, the Congress had 3 primary items on its agenda: renovate the governing bodies of the Polisario Front, establish the movements strategy in the wartime situation, and most importantly, elect a new General-Secretary. 

Firstly, regarding the reorganisation of the Polisario’s governing bodies, the Congress opted to reduce the membership of the National Secretariat from 50 to 44, this was done through the removal of 2 of the 29-Congress elected members and the exclusion of the mass organisations (National Union of Sahrawi Women, Sahrawi Trade Union, Sahrawi Youth Union, and the Union of Sahrawi Students). In addition, the Election Committee was formed and implemented into the Basic Law of the Polisario Front, responsible for managing the election processes of the Secretary General and National Secretariat. 

Pertaining to the Polisario’s wartime strategy, the 16th Congress reiterated the commitment of the Sahrawi people to the choice of resistance and escalation of the liberation struggle until completion of sovereignty over the entire national territory. Through this statement, the Polisario indicated “that the conference was held in a distinct national stage marked by the escalation of the national struggle against the Moroccan occupation since 13 November 2020, in the context of legitimate self-defence and confronting the blatant act of aggression of the Moroccan occupation state and its violation of the ceasefire agreement.”

Finally, in the election for the General-Secretary of the Polisario Front and the President of the SADR, Bachir Mustafa Sayed, El-Ouali Mustafa Sayed’s brother, ran against the incumbent Brahim Ghali. Although the two candidates had differing views regarding the future vision and strategy of the armed struggle, both agreed that the escalation of hostilities against Morocco was required. Following a statement by the Election Commission, Ghali was re-elected as Secretary General for a three-year term. Overall, 1870 votes were cast, where 1816 were valid, of these, 1253 were for Brahim Ghali, 69 percent, and 563 were for Bashir Mustafa, 31 percent. 

Implications for Morocco 

The implications of the 16th Polisario Congress for Morocco are straightforward; a dismissal of Morocco’s claims and presence in the region and an outright rejection of its 2007 autonomy plan. 

In recent years, as the two warring parties had been in a political deadlock, Morocco had made considerable efforts to shift global opinion, particularly in the West, to its favour. Morocco’s efforts are best highlighted by the Trump administration's recognition of Rabbat’s sovereignty over Western Sahara (in return for the normalisation of relations with Israel), and more recently support from the Spanish government regarding Morocco’s proposed autonomy plan, a break from its historical stance on the conflict. 

The Moroccan autonomy plan, proposed in 2007, calls for the creation of the “Sahara Autonomous Region,” an autonomous region within Morocco with its own government and parliament, a separate judicial system which would issue rulings in the name of King Mohammed VI, and control over its own budget. The autonomous region, however, would retain the Moroccan flag and currency, while surrendering control over issues regarding foreign relations, security, and defence. Finally, the autonomy plan promises amnesty for the Polisario and its fighters. 

The Polisario, as indicated by the statements of the 16th Congress, have made clear their intentions regarding the autonomy proposal, opting to fight for the independence of their territory. The continuation of the Sahrawi-Morocco War leaves Rabbat in a complex position where the outright defeat of the Polisario is low in probability. Furthermore, the longer the conflict carries on, the higher the chances of increased international pressure on Morocco, regardless of its current support, due to claims of human rights violations and a violation of previous UN mandates and rulings. In addition, the destabilisation of the region increases the risk of Islamist groups such as al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb establishing a foothold in the territory, leading to a potential deterioration of Morocco’s domestic security. 

Implications for Algeria 

Although Algeria has been steadfast in its support for the Polisario Front, Algerian-Polisario relations can be viewed through the lens of the Maghreb’s Cold War, where Algeria and Morocco have been locked in a proxy conflict stemming from hegemonic ambitions and ideological differences where Algerian support for the Polisario has played a key role in its attempts at countering its regional rival. 

The 16th Congress of the Polisario, and the resumption of the conflict in the Western Sahara, can be viewed in the context of Algeria’s Hirak protests which began in 2019, calling for political and economic reform, and Algeria’s ambitions of increasing its presence in the European energy markets. 

Firstly, even though the Hirak movement is not directly linked to the conflict in Western Sahara, the demands of tackling the longstanding grievances of corruption, unemployment, and economic inequality alongside reforming the country’s political structure may hinder Algeria’s ability to increase its support for the Polisario without facing significant backlash domestically; as previously mentioned, it is alleged that Algeria provides nearly $1 billion annually to the Polisario, with the onset of hostilities, it can be assumed that the Polisario will need more resources to conduct its campaign of liberation against Morocco. 

Moreover, given the conflict in Ukraine, Algeria has an opportunity to expand its oil and gas exports to European nations, a move which may have a positive impact on Algeria’s economic situation. This, however, might come with strings attached as significant players within the European Union have expressed support for Morocco’s autonomy plan, raising questions regarding their willingness to work with Algeria given its extensive support for the Polisario Front.

This puts President Tebboune in a challenging position where his government must balance its domestic and international interests, namely its geopolitical battle with Morocco, the grievances of the Hirak movement, and its ambitions of supplying the European markets with oil and gas in light of Russia’s special operation in Ukraine.