On February 6th, 2023, two devastating earthquakes (7.8 and 7.6 magnitudes respectively) struck southern Türkiye, close to the Turkish-Syria border, creating widespread disaster. These were followed by another 6.4 magnitude earthquake on February 20th, 2023. These disasters gained immense international attention, with many countries and organisations, from the United States to the United Arab Emirates, the EU and the Islamic Development Bank amongst others committing large grants of money for humanitarian aid assistance. With over 56,000 people dying in both countries, thousands injured and displaced, both countries remain in need of assistance, with the long-term impacts beginning to present themselves: emotional trauma, homelessness and a continuing lack of necessities, especially for Syrian civilians. Additionally, in the weeks after the earthquakes, unprecedented floods swept through the affected areas in Türkiye and Syria, destroying more homes and exacerbating an already desperate humanitarian crisis.

Syria

According to the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), Syrians remain in dire need of assistance. Although six million of the approximate 8.8 million of those affected are in government-controlled areas, mostly in Aleppo (4.2 million), it took the Syrian government a week to authorise urgent cross-border aid to civilians, and the government continued to block aid trucks and manipulate aid delivery. Additionally, aid to Kurds has been restricted by the regime.

Moreover, those affected in Idlib province (3 million), remain particularly isolated and desperate; most Syrians in Idlib were already internally displaced people living in temporary shelters having moved to Idlib from other Syrian provinces. A large proportion of the province is run by rebel groups, and some extremist forces, which continues to hamper any effective organisation of aid. For example, the opposition force, the Syrian National Army , impeded aid access, and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) refused aid from Damascus. Thus, Syrian civilians are again at the mercy of larger political forces and geopolitical rivalry with Türkiye and Syria still locked in ongoing disputes in the aftermath of the civil war.

Over 10,000 buildings collapsed in Syria which were mostly residential and public services, like hospitals and schools. Syrians are still relying on NGOs to offer essential, urgent, medical assistance and humanitarian resources, like shelter. The suffering is unimaginable to those not affected, as Dr Samer Attar of the Syrian American Medical Society (SAMS) says: ‘I remember a 22-year-old that got engaged the day before the earthquake and the next day his whole family was gone.’

The Norwegian Refugee Council reports that as of March 1st, 2023, only $200 million of the $400 million the UN declared Syrians needed had been provided by donors. Children are traumatised and in need of mental health support for a range of issues, and women have to wait in long queues to use sanitary facilities and emergencies shelters are over-crowded with Syrians forced to live in shifts; eating, sleeping and going to the bathroom on a rota system in order to prevent over-use of limited resources, with sexual harassment reported at some shelters. As of the start of April 2023, more than 13,000 cases of Cholera have been documented in this region of north-west Syria, with pre-existing, already fragile water infrastructure having been further damaged in the earthquakes (12 high water tanks were damaged in government-held areas). According to the Centre for Disaster Philanthropy (CDP), ‘170 sub-districts in 43 districts in 10 of Syria’s governorates’ have been affected and remain in desperate need, and it has been reported that those who were receiving cancer care in neighbouring Türkiye are still banned from cross-border travel. The ‘White Helmets’ are now not only rescuing Syrians, but helping to rebuild Syria, after many have felt exasperated by the slow pace of international aid deliverance, which organisations, like the UN, have stated has been due to the highly complicated landscape in Syria due to the ongoing effects of the civil war.

Moreover, thousands of Syrians who were affected in Türkiye where they had fled to as a result of the civil war, now find themselves homeless after the devastation of the earthquakes in Türkiye. Showcasing the level of desperation, many have returned to opposition-controlled Syria after Turkish authorities allowed Syrian refugees to return to Syria for six months or less; if they held ‘temporary protection’ cards and were from one of the ten earthquake affected Turkish provinces: Gaziantep, Hatay, Sanliurfa, Adana, Kahramanmaraş, Diyarbakir, Kilis, Adiyaman, Osmaniye and Malatya. Al Jazeera reported on a Syrian refugee saying, ‘After my sister and I spent 10 days in public parks, I did not have any choice other than return to Syria through the voluntary return system that was announced.’ This highlights the extreme suffering and desperateness of Syrian refugees; over 1,790 Syrians have so far chosen to return to Syria since the earthquakes.

Türkiye

Whilst Syrians continue to struggle to remove debris and access essential human necessities, the earthquakes and reconstruction campaigns have entered the upcoming pre-election rhetoric in Türkiye. President Erdogan has been heavily criticised for the perceived slow response from emergency workers to the crisis, with many also accusing him of failing to adapt construction rules under his presidency. His Justice and Development Party (AKP) have used infrastructure and development as ‘main selling points’ of their terms in power, and so the shock and anger of the unprecedented scale of infrastructural collapse - 24,291 buildings have collapsed across the affected regions - has led to many uncomfortable questions. Notably, the anger, grief and despair of voters might push voters away from Erdogan - he has been in power since 2002 - and towards the opposition candidate supported by a variety of opposition parties, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. The earthquakes could thus be seen as a potential trigger for action in Türkiye, igniting people for a radical change after years of economic crisis - inflation stands at 50.5% -  and discontent towards the government. Interestingly, it was the same emotions over the severe earthquake in 1999 - where over 17,000 died - that pushed Prime Minister Ecevit out of power and Erdogan into power. 

Importantly, a change in presidency in Türkiye could see widespread domestic changes, and a shift in Turkish foreign policy. Kilicdaroglu wants to reverse Erdogan’s democratic backsliding by restoring Türkiye’s parliamentary system and removing the head of state’s veto power amongst other pro-democracy reforms, alongside softening tense relations with the United States, re-intensifying the push for EU membership, and kickstarting a voluntary return of Syrian refugees. As such, the earthquakes entering the election debate showcase how Türkiye is in a different “headspace” to Syria. 

Overall, Türkiye has been able to, despite slow action to begin with, re-house those affected in tourist resorts or temporary tents and even raise arrest warrants against building contractors responsible for housing that should not have collapsed. The government has also announced a large-scale housing scheme to rebuild homes destroyed in the earthquakes. However, the arrests  have been labelled as a smokescreen, with Erdogan’s “crony capitalism” having allowed the construction of poor-quality housing for maximum profit, which some say created this largely man-made humanitarian crisis of 2023. Many Turkish people are still deeply affected by the earthquakes; as of April 20th, 2023, 1.6 million Turkish people are living in informal settlements, and the government is also under pressure to move those placed in hotels, guesthouses, and dormitories into different accommodation to create space for tourists – tourism is a key contributor to the Turkish economy, at around 10% of its GDP. 

Moreover, millions of students remain out of education in the affected provinces, with those returning learning in tents and containers. Significant psychological trauma and shock, as seen in Syria, is present amongst survivors and many still criticise what they see as the poor response and detached attitudes from the Turkish government, with many questioning why the army was not called in to help. Additionally, the removal of approximately 210 million tonnes of debris has created a logistical issue for Türkiye. People are criticising the dumping of waste harming the environment and wildlife, and also how waste is being left in residential areas which carries hazards to human health.