Last month, the Turkish national main battle tank (MBT) project achieved a new milestone in its long and tumultuous development process. A deal with the South Korean firm SNT Heavy Industries will supply Altay producer BMC with 1,500 horsepower automatic transmissions. Türkiye plans to produce 1,000 such MBTs, with gradually increasing sourcing of parts from local industries, to modernise its current, grossly antiquated MBT tank fleet, mostly comprised of Cold War, M48, M60 and Leopard 1 designs.

Several issues, however, cast doubt on the feasibility of the country’s first-ever national MBT project, the first one being economic. The price tag of a single such vehicle, assuming mass production, and based on 2016 cost assessments, was close to $14 million. Considering significant inflation (both domestically and internationally) in material costs and the severe depreciation of the Turkish Lira in the last seven years, and the uncertain prospects of Altay production benefitting from an economy of scale, questions arise over the financial burden of the project. Turkish defence spending, set to reach $14.4 billion in 2023, might not be sufficient to cover the multi-billion cost of modernising the MBT fleet, especially when considering other pressing modernisation needs for the country’s ageing naval and air assets.

Technological issues are just as critical. The original development plan relied on the use of German engines and automatic transmissions. However, following Germany’s ban on exports to Türkiye in 2019 due to the country’s offensives in northern Syria, Altay’s development was further delayed. Naturally, finding alternative parts that could match the original design has proved challenging, as Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar himself admitted. The latest deal with SNT Heavy Industries might not provide BMC with a working solution either, as the transmission system had faced issues when adopted for the South Korean K2 MBT project (itself a significantly lighter vehicle than Altay).

For Türkiye and President Erdoğan, Altay is not simply a matter of upgrading its MBT fleet or military capabilities. It stands as a symbol of a defence industry that aspires to become a key global competitor, and an administration that aspires to become an autonomous regional power, able to conduct its foreign policy free of restrictions imposed by allies. For these reasons, Altay and all other ambitious weapon-development projects, such as the Turkish fighter aircraft TFX, will likely advance despite any hurdles they face. However, the pressing question that the administration will have to answer sooner rather than later is: Can Türkiye afford to spend billions of dollars on development projects that might not materialise and negatively affect the future of the Turkish Armed Forces?