Nigeria’s tribal and regional divide stands poised to affect the upcoming 2023 elections. This article discusses Nigerian tribal relations and their connections to presidential tickets and considers implications for the elections 2023 elections. 

Boasting over 225 million people and 370 tribes, Nigeria is unmistakably diverse. The ethnic dynamics of Africa’s most populous nation will play a significant role in upcoming electoral decisions. Nigeria’s regional divide between the “North” and “South” can be traced back to Nigeria’s colonial history where British trade interests separated Nigeria into “northern” and “southern” protectorates in the late 1880s. Currently, there are six official regions in Nigeria - also known as geopolitical zones - these are the North-East, North-West, North Central, South-East, South-South, and South-West. 

Of Nigeria’s four largest tribes, the Hausa and Fulani are both located in the North, with the Yoruba in the South-West and the Igbo situated in the South-East. The Hausa make up 30% of the Nigerian population, the Igbo 15.2%, the Yoruba 15.5%, and the Fulani 6%. Given the disparity in population between the North and the South, the balance of power in Nigeria has been a point of contention. Fear of domination from the North against the South and vice versa has been a recurring historical trend in Nigerian politics. This background gave rise to the informal Nigerian political practice of “zoning” and “power rotation”. In 1999, the People’s Democratic Party established an informal accord known as ‘zoning.’ It called for the presidency to be rotated between the North and the South. If the president was a southern Christian then the vice president was a northern Muslim, and vice versa. The analytical lens of a North and South divide is useful in evaluating the selection of the next Nigerian president but should be rooted in an understanding that this divide does not speak to the rich ethnic differences in the official six geopolitical zones. The North-South analytical lens highlights the deep rift between the Muslim North and the Christian South and the ongoing practices of zoning and power rotations. 

As for the tribes of the leading 2023 candidates, Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is a Muslim and a Yoruba man from the South West region. His running mate is Senator Kashim Shettima of the Northern Kanuri tribe, a Muslim from Maiduguri in Borno State in North East Nigeria. The dual Muslim-Muslim ticket has raised concerns despite Tinubu’s claims to judge him and Shettima on their merits. Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is a Muslim Fulani from Nigeria's North-East. Governor Ifeanyi Okowa of the South is his running mate. He is a medical doctor by profession and he hails from Owa-Alero in Ika North East Local Government Area of Delta State, Nigeria.  Peter Obi, the Presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), is a Christian and an Igbo man from Anambra State in Nigeria's South Eastern region. His running mate is Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, a former Senator for Kaduna North. He is a Muslim from Kaduna State in Northern Nigeria. 

Ethnic ties will be a key indicator utilized to sway voters in the upcoming election as seen by the efforts of Atiku Abubakar who said that “those from the North don’t need candidates from the South during the 2023 elections.” At the present, Northern candidates such as Atiku and the less popular Rabiu Kwankwaso of the Nigerian National Democratic Party (NNDP) have actively been cited as framing their campaigns as “them vs. us” concerning the North and South dichotomy. Notwithstanding, Southern sentiment alleging current President Muhammadu Buhari’s “preferential treatment” of the Fulani North at the expense of other tribes also indicates this mindset in the South. Voting will also certainly be affected by festering security concerns caused by Boko Haram and the Fulani herdsmen attacks against Christians in the Middle Belt states. Ultimately, ethnic tensions will tug at both the North and South and disruptions to the current political status quo are more than likely to cause tumult.

Furthermore, Nigerian democracy is undergoing a serious revolution by the youthful population. The Labour Party appeals to the youth and there is a strong perception that the youths of Nigeria may determine the next president of the country if they participate fully by voting in the 2023 elections. We wait till then.