Context

With the presidential election in the rear-view mirror, Nigerians once again took to the polls on March 18th, for gubernatorial and state assembly elections. As Stears describes, the presidential election “was supposed to be the election that brought Nigeria’s young people into political prominence.” It captivated the attention of the nation and transmitted an excitement that permeated through the markets, barbershops, banks, and hospitals. However, the reality of election day manifested in long voting delays, voter suppression, vote rigging and widespread violence leaving many Nigerians dismayed.

The controversial presidential election delivered another mandate for the incumbent All Progressives Congress (APC). However, this is the first time in Nigerian presidential election history that the winner received fewer than 10 million votes, a reflection of the political division within Nigeria. 

The division has been exacerbated by the decisions of Labour Party (LP) candidate Peter Obi and People’s Democratic Party (PDP) candidate Atiku Abubakar to contest the presidential election results. According to Al Jazeera, Obi officially submitted his contestation lawsuit claiming that it is “the beginning of the journey for the birth of a new Nigeria.” Yunusa Tanko, the LP spokesperson told journalists “We are challenging the qualifications of the candidate that was declared the winner. We are also challenging the processes that led to his declaration as the winner, among others.”

Despite civil unrest and lack of faith in the electoral system, polls opened on the morning of March 18th in 28 of the 36 Nigerian states, for the subsequent gubernatorial elections. International and domestic observers were hoping for a smoother election process which could renew faith in Nigerian democracy.

Results

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared winners in 26 of the 28 gubernatorial races. The races in Adamawa State and Kebbi State proved too close to call and will go to a re-run. In those races where winners were declared, the power of incumbency was on display. In the eleven states where an incumbent was on the ballot, they won re-election nine times. Interestingly, however, governors who tried to make the jump to the Senate did not fare well, with seven out of the ten losing their elections. According to Stears and the BBC’s latest information, APC is the big winner of the election taking 15 of the 26 declared gubernatorial seats. The PDP won 9 governorships, while LP and the NNPP only won 1 governorship each.  

These election figures contrast starkly with those from February. The presidential election showed parity amongst the candidates and division amongst voters, with each of the three major parties winning 12 states. The gubernatorial election shows that APC has been able to expand its base, capturing traditional PDP strongholds in Cross River, Sokoto and Katsina. Meanwhile, support for the other major parties has waned.

One clear conclusion that can be drawn from these elections is that Peter Obi’s popularity did not carry over to the other LP candidates. Many observers expected a bounce in LP governorships due to Obi’s strong election results. However, LP only managed to win one governorship in Abia State. We are yet to see if these results will have any effect on the “Obidient” movement and Obi’s continued contestation of the presidential election results.  

Finally, INEC released a statement on March 27th explaining that gubernatorial elections in Adamawa State and Kebbi State, 5 Senatorial District elections, and elections in 31 Federal and 58 State Assembly constituencies were inconclusive due to their competitive nature. As such, supplementary elections have been called for these races. INEC has chosen April 15th as the date of choice for the supplementary elections, forcing some Nigerians to go to the polls for a third time in three months.

Election Conduct

The March 18th gubernatorial elections again displayed troubling signs for Nigerian democracy. The BBC reported incidents of violence, polling station attacks and ballot snatching in Lagos State. Voters were subject to attacks and discrimination in Kano, Sokoto and Port Harcourt, with a rise in ethnic tensions and alleged voter suppression fuelled by identity politics.

Protests and violence have been mounting in the wake of both elections in many of the major cities. In Kano State – where the NNPP won the gubernatorial seat – protests have turned violent with the home of a popular artist who campaigned for APC being lit on fire. A dusk-to-dawn curfew was imposed across the state as a result. Protests have also taken place in the south-eastern city of Enugu, in the north-central Nasarawa State and in Rivers State in the south. Kaduna State preemptively deployed its security personnel ahead of time to halt any potential violence.

Many of the demonstrations were organized by the Free Nigeria Movement. Moses Paul, the convener of the Free Nigeria Movement claims Nigeria “cannot afford to continue the culture of performance of lawlessness without consequences.” As such, he has helped mobilize Nigerians to protest the election results and experience. Paul has also been subject to election-related violence, narrowly escaping a stabbing attempt during the ‘Occupy INEC’ protest he led late last month in Abuja. According to VOA News, at the time of writing over 780 people have been arrested for disrupting elections.  

According to Idayat Hassan, director of the Centre for Democracy and Development, there was an upside to the second round of voting. INEC showed improvements in their capacity to open polls, upload results and manage its technology. Moreover, the BVAS and IREV systems functioned dramatically better, with voters being identified quicker and votes being made visible online in a timely manner. Stears reports that 18 hours after voting closed 77% of the election results were available to view on the IREV platform. Only 10% were visible in the same time frame for the presidential election. IREV was even trusted over hand counts in this election and helped avoid potential re-counts in disrupted voting areas.

Moving Forward

Barring an unprecedented overturn of the presidential elections, Bola Tinubu will be sworn into office on May 29th of this year. He will have a majority in both the Federal Senate and House of Representatives, and his party will hold more than half of the nation’s governorships. After participating in the gubernatorial elections, Tinubu has taken time away from his homeland, travelling first to Paris, before going on to London and then Saudi Arabia as he makes the Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca. As protests about election results and the electoral process continue, Tinubu has called for unity and peace during the month of Ramadan.

While the United States initially congratulated President-elect Tinubu, it has since released another statement expressing concern over the electoral process. The statement says, “The United States is deeply troubled by the disturbing acts of violent voter intimidation and suppression that took place during those polls in Lagos, Kano, and other states.” It goes on to say that “The United States likewise will consider all available actions, including additional visa restrictions, on individuals believed to be responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic process in Nigeria.” Since the release of this statement, Vice President Kamala Harris has departed for her trip to Africa but has notably left the West African nation off her agenda, likely as a response to the erosion of the electoral process.

Nigeria has also found itself to be a subject of questioning in the United Kingdom’s House of Commons. Concern was expressed by certain Members of Parliament about the conduct of both rounds of elections despite the technical advice and financial support given by the UK. As a result, the Conservative government is slashing funding to Nigeria, although members of the opposition worry this will not help the situation and it will lessen British influence in the West African state.

However, not all nations have shown displeasure at the electoral process in Nigeria. Most notably Indian PM Narendra Modi and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have both congratulated Tinubu and the APC on their election. Neither made any mention of potential election fraud or the democratic process in general.

With the world watching Nigerians will have to pick themselves up after two months of elections and return to normal life. Few have come out of this election cycle satisfied and many young Nigerians remain scared and suspicious about the road ahead. President-elect Tinubu and his majority APC government will have to work with INEC and the opposition to regain the trust of the people and the international community and push Nigeria forward and towards a more secure future.