Current Figures

• At least 865 killed and 3,634 wounded 

• IOM: 1,042,114 IDPs

• UNHCR: Over 345,265 refugees & returnees have fled

• Egypt: 158,965 (Sudanese refugees: 153,400, Other refugees: 5,565)

• Chad: 90,000 (Sudanese refugees: 90,000)

• South Sudan: 76,825 (Sudanese refugees: 2,039, Other refugees: 2,443, Refugee returnees: 72,343)

• CAR: 13,824 (Sudanese refugees: 10,368, Refugee returnees: 3,456)

• Ethiopia: 5,651 (Sudanese refugees: 710, Other refugees: 4,889, Refugee returnees: 52)

Burhan Calls for UN Envoy’s Replacement

General Abdel-Fattah Burhan of the SAF has called for the dismissal of UN special envoy Volker Perthes, accusing Perthes of “fraud and disinformation”. Burhan is requesting that the UN replaces Perthes but United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, shocked by the accusation, has stated his confidence in Perthes’ work. Burhan stated in his letter that Perthes misled the UN on the consensus of the situation in Sudan and stoked the conflict. Burhan stated, "without these signs of encouragement, the rebel leader Dagalo would not have launched his military operations."

Burhan’s letter is another attempt to deflect any responsibility for the conflict and “bolster his war effort.” “Since late last year Perthes and the U.N. mission in Sudan, which he heads, have been the target of several protests by thousands of military and Islamist supporters who accused Perthes of foreign intervention and demanded his dismissal.” Burhan attempting to use Perthes as a scapegoat for why the conflict started is asinine. Additionally, contemplating how the UN envoy is responsible for the continuation of the conflict, let alone the refusal to adhere to repeated ceasefire agreements, is perplexing. 

Sudanese activist Hala al-Karib stated how “meaningless” the ceasefire is as the fighting has continued. "If anything the truce has allowed for more looting, more kidnapping and sexual abuse – because this war is one where civilians are the spoils. This war is fought over their bodies, their homes and businesses – and they become the human shields.” While the RSF has expressed a willingness to extend the ‘truce’, the SAF put out a call for former soldiers to re-enlist. This action by the SAF brings to question if the military is struggling in their efforts. Regardless, Burhan’s “full call of all officers, rank officers and retired soldiers” shows he has no interest in backing down. Meanwhile, Sudanese civilians have seen that claims of a truce are futile. "The aim is to strip the citizens of Khartoum of their modest possessions and humiliate them. Ultimately, the truce allows for more freedom to continue the real battle – against the Sudanese people," said al-Karib. 

Open Doors for Illegal Arms & Terrorism

Military intelligence has claimed that they witnessed weapons and ammunition being sent to the RSF in Suakin via the Red Sea from outside of Sudan. It is unconfirmed who is supplying the RSF. With the pre-existing problems of porous borders and illegal arms in the region, the conflict in Sudan is “likely to raise the number of arms in the wrong hands as mercenaries flock in from across borders in the face of inability by the government to protect citizens from rogue elements due to the breakdown of law and order.” The chaotic situation is opening the doors to a variety of nefarious groups, including illegal arms dealers, mercenaries, and terrorist groups. 

According to Roland Marchal, a researcher at the Paris-based National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) and a Sudan specialist, there is an upsurge of Bashir loyalists and Islamic extremists among the Sudanese Armed Forces. The ongoing chaos and power vacuum left in Sudan is creating prime conditions for terrorist involvement. The forces of Bashir loyalists and Islamic extremists who want Hemedti out are a dangerous group that will without a doubt make any future negotiations more challenging. Marchal adds, “The risk for Burhan, if he enters into negotiations, is that it could divide his army, and a part of it – particularly the radical Islamists – could break away from him.” Should a splintering occur, this could develop into a conflict within a conflict, further convoluting the discord. 

While the Islamic State is not currently present in Sudan, they have been reporting on the conflict through their media outlets on Telegram. Additionally, “some Arabic media outlets reported that during the ongoing clashes, the Sudanese Army has used some of ISIS and Al-Qaeda operatives held in its prisons in the fight against RSF.” Al-Qaeda already has a foothold in Sudan, as a book titled Fighting is Now: Messages of War to the Mujahidin in Sudan, illustrates. The book, authored by Sheikh Abu Hudhayfa Al-Sudani who served under Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan, called for a jihad against the government and aimed to declare a war on “the tyrannical regime and puppet government in Khartoum.” Al-Sudani was reportedly arrested shortly after the publication of his book, “though the exact location and veracity of the reports remain murky.”

Looking Forward

According to a regional commentator, “Islamist allies of Bashir have been returning to positions of influence since the October 2021 military coup instigated by both generals. Many in Sudan see the release of Bashir as the logical next step in the reassertion of power by the old guard.” Bashir’s whereabouts are still unconfirmed. The SAF has stated, without providing proof, that Bashir is in police custody. Bashir’s evasion of the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) charges against him has created a “poster boy” image. “Were he to regain any form of power, however illegitimately achieved, it would demonstrate that there is indeed impunity for the most awful of crimes including, in his case, allegations of murder, torture, rape and forcible transfer.” As Bashir’s whereabouts continue to be unconfirmed, other criminal actors may become inspired by him or find a way to utilise him. Should the RSF attempt to free Bashir, might Bashir-loyalists within the SAF defect and join the RSF ranks; altering the war entirely? 

Sudan’s two warring parties, Bashir-loyalists, Islamic extremism support, and porous borders are creating a fertile ground for a cataclysmic and protracted conflict. As Africa has become the “locus of terrorism,” the likelihood of Sudan turning into a similar situation as those in Libya or Somalia is mounting. “[...]if the fighting continues and troop losses mount, it is bound to create not only ungoverned spaces for terrorists to exploit, but also tempt the two feuding factions to cut deals with regional militant groups and set the stage for a spiral of warfare and lawlessness.” This described situation may already be present with Burhan’s call for re-enlistment in order to increase his numbers. 

With Sudan’s history of harbouring terrorists, groups such as “Daesh and Al-Qaeda may set their eyes on the country as a potential new base.” While it may be currently unknown as to who is supplying arms to the RSF, what is evident is the ease of trafficking arms into Sudan. The competition amongst these various parties will likely splinter into a multitude of conflicts, creating another endless war for Africans. Should the parties be unable to reach a true agreement soon, the conflict may reach a tipping point of which there will be no return.