Current Figures

• At least 604 killed and 5,100 wounded

• 700,000+ IDPs - more than doubled in one week

• Over 150,000 have fled

• 860,000 expected to flee into neighbouring countries

• UN states $1.7 billion needed

Talks Stalled as Pressure Increases

Initial talks have aimed at establishing a temporary cease-fire in order for humanitarian aid to be safely distributed. However, the representatives of both warring sides have been unable to reach a compromise. According to anonymous sources, the military is demanding that the RSF withdraw from Khartoum and relocate to one base outside of the city. The RSF states it wants to “retain control of all of the bases it had held prior to the conflict, including at key locations inside the capital, such as the Khartoum Airport”. Additionally, the RSF wants to secure a guarantee that its soldiers will continue to be paid out of the national budget. 

The SAF stated on its Facebook page yesterday that operations were stable in all states of Sudan and that the rebel militia continues violations in Khartoum. Despite SAF’s claims, reports of attacks from both parties continue, including air raids and counter-fire in Khartoum. 

United States Undersecretaries of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland and Sarah Charles testified yesterday before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee regarding the Sudan conflict. US Senator Bob Menedez (D-New Jersey) aptly stated in opening remarks that years of US foreign policy fell short of the challenge in Sudan and “refused to call a coup a coup [...]”. Committee member Senator Jim Risch (R-Idaho) also appeared irate that Nuland and Charles repeatedly could not articulate a clear vision of what it wanted to achieve in Sudan. According to Risch, the agency did not reply to questions until the day before the hearing, over 100 days later. The meeting displayed a bipartisan push for the Biden administration to boost its response. With pressures mounting on the State Department to take more action, the likelihood of Biden implementing sanctions seems imminent. This is more evident by statements made by Nuland, who indicated that sanctions are ready to be used should talks not progress. 

Regarding US goals in the ongoing talks, Nuland stated, “We can’t get anything done in Sudan, we can’t even restore a process in which civilians are participating until the violence stops and we get some aid in. We’re, as I said, cautiously optimistic that this first installment on getting humanitarian support will allow us to get going in coming days. Then the ceasefire has to be more durable.”

Refugees at High Risk of Hunger

According to the World Food Programme (WFP), 2 to 2.5 million people are at risk of acute hunger in the coming months. In a country already suffering from food insecurity, the WFP stated that the conflict would push Sudan to a “record high”, impacting two-fifths of the population. Furthering food insecurity will be the rising cost of basic food items, which is expected to increase by 25% over the next three to six months. 

Last week, the UNHCR put out a press release announcing they would need $445 million to assist the expected 860,000 fleeing Sudan until the month of October. “Of the total, some 580,000 would be Sudanese, 235,000 refugees previously hosted by Sudan returning home in adverse conditions, and 45,000 refugees of other nationalities previously hosted by Sudan. Egypt and South Sudan are expected to see the most arrivals.” Thousands of refugees are sheltering in the open in 40℃ temperatures. Many are using any materials they can find, including broken branches, to create makeshift shelters. Yet, there is not enough food and water to go around. 

Saudi Arabia has pledged to donate $100 million worth of aid. 

Farhan Haq, Deputy spokesman for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, stated, "It's clear that because of the needs on the ground, we're going to proceed with humanitarian operations whether there's a ceasefire or not. But in order to make sure that safe passage is guaranteed, we want the parties to adhere to a declaration of commitments."

Looking Forward

The growing food insecurity crisis will no doubt exacerbate risks in both the development and security sectors. The WFP is providing emergency food assistance to those who have fled to CAR, Chad, Egypt, and South Sudan but is facing an unparalleled battle. In South Sudan alone, the WFP stated that they are “cash-strapped” and warned that “any extra pressure on resources could force it to take food and funding from others to support new arrivals.” 

Over 700,000 people are internally displaced, a figure that more than doubled in a single week. This is in addition to the 3.7 million IDPs that existed before the conflict began. How host countries will be able to assist arrivals remains to be questioned. According to a UN report posted on May 9, $1.7 billion is needed to help 12.5 million, with only 15% thus far received. Acquiring international aid of such a high amount will be difficult. And as the various humanitarian crises tied to the Sudan conflict expand, more donations will be required as countries both in and outside of Africa will be focused on funding their security sectors. If aid is redistributed as the WFP warns, conflicts are likely to develop as already vulnerable people become more desperate.  

While hopes continue that the US and Saudi Arabia can succeed in accomplishing an agreement to allow for the safe distribution of aid in Sudan, it appears tragically unlikely as indicated by the focus of both parties. Ceasefires continue to be disregarded as humanitarian crises accelerate. Sanctions will no doubt be declared soon. While sanctions have a problematic track record, it is difficult at this time to be overly critical of such actions. The increasing figures of deaths, injuries, refugees, IDPs, etc., force a mood of desperation and although frenzied attempts at some form of resolution are certainly welcome, there will continue to be instability should something more concrete not occur.