By: Ridipt Singh

Summary

The United Kingdom (UK) has officially designated the Wagner Group as a terrorist organization amidst a leadership struggle after Prigozhin’s death. Former fighters from the group are absorbed into the Russian National Guard (RNG) after due process; others are reportedly divided and shifted to other commands, while some seek other job opportunities due to their convictions and involvement in the Ukraine-Russia war. While the Russian government tries to absorb Wagner fighters within the Ministry of Defence, the group is expanding by luring volunteers into combat roles. Amidst these developments, the group continues to face losses in its operations in Africa, and the organization's future remains uncertain.

Developments

• The UK has officially banned the Wagner Group and designated it a terrorist organization. The mercenary group is added to a list of organizations,  including Hamas and Boko Haram. Aiding the group in further supporting its activities, expressing support to the group, or showcasing the Wagner logo or flag could result in fines and prison sentences of up to 14 years. 

• Satellite imagery captured by Planet Labs shows tents in the Tsel military base used by the Wagner fighters in Minsk, Belarus being gradually dismantled.

• Internal strife continues within the Wagner Group due to a lack of trust between the commanders. Anton Yelizarov, calling Lotus, and a known loyalist to Prigozhin, is presently heading the group. This could result in a dysfunctionality in operations coordination, lack of clear vision and mission, and organization-wide structure.  

• President  Vladimir Putin intends to continue using the fighters and plans to shift the fighters into other groups. The Rosgvardiya i.e., the Russian National Guard has begun to recruit former Wagner mercenaries in their ranks after a due vetting process, concluding contracts with Wagner and documents of pardon for their convictions. These recruits occupy neither senior nor mid-level positions and are being deployed to protect “strategic objects” in occupied Ukraine.

• Some former members of the Wagner Group are left in a dire position to seek new job opportunities. An audio message from a Wagner representative has told fighters to seek new jobs as they will not be allowed to fight in Ukraine for “well known circumstances”. Upon being turned down for employment in defense enterprises or factories, some had to resort to working as taxi drivers or couriers for restaurants. In one such instance, Valery Bogdanov, a former member of the Wagner Group with five convictions for theft and robbery, started a taxi service company with the Wagner logo on the business cards. 

International Reactions:

• Following the UK’s decision to designate Wagner as a terrorist organization, UK Home Secretary Suella Braverman says "they are terrorists, plain and simple - and this prescription order makes that clear in UK law" highlighting that Wagner Group’s destabilizing activities only serve the political goals of Russia.

• Andrea Kendall-Taylor of the Center for a New American Security says that Wagner fighters might be integrated into the command of the Ministry of Defence, Russian intelligence agencies, or under other oligarchs adding, “but none of those assets will wither at the vine.”

• The US is putting sanctions on a Wagner affiliate - Pavel Pavlovich Shevelin, involved in transferring ammunition from North Korea to Russia, and another Wagner official Vitalij Victorovich Perfilev, for activities in the Central African Republic (CAR).

Scenarios/Lines of Analysis

• Following Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death, Wagner members occupied themselves with odd jobs while others are absorbed into other units. Nevertheless, the Group is still operational but struggles in parts of Africa. In the CAR, Wagner is struggling to secure its presence while facing losses in its operations against the rebel forces in the region. In Northern Mali, the Group and the national army have lost control of camps and posts to the Tuareg rebels. Furthermore, to continue its existence, Wagner fighters are also trying to recruit volunteers in Central Asia to fight in Ukraine. In Kyrgyzstan, volunteers are lured through security job offers and sent for special operation tasks in Ukraine, citing “change in priorities”. This illustrates the Group’s dysfunctionality, resulting in increased losses and unclear priorities, likely deriving from the struggle to secure new leadership after Prigozhin’s death. 

• The Russian government disrupted the landing of a plane belonging to Wagner, supposed to rotate Wagner fighters in Syria. This development occurred amidst reports of the Russian MoD, attempting to subsume Wagner operations. Former Wagner fighters are relocated into different units, and some fighters are not being pardoned for their convictions, likely suggesting the Russian government is wholly trying to control the group’s fate. On the other hand, Wagner representatives expand by luring volunteers into their ranks, likely suggesting the group is trying to maintain its existence as an independent group from the Russian government and its attempt to integrate the group into its structure.