By: Vanina Meyer

Summary

Since Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death, the founder and leader of the Wagner Group, the future of the mercenary group is uncertain. The question of a new leader remains uncertain, while it is likely that some soldiers join the Russian forces and presumably other mercenary groups might supplement the Wagner Group as a paramilitary force for Russia, at home and abroad. Russia’s influence in Africa is likely to be uncertain as Wagner and its leader had significant power and influence in the continent. On the international scene, the United Kingdom declared the Wagner Group a terrorist organisation.

Developments

• The leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, died with 9 other people including Wagner’s associates Valery Chekalov and Dmitry Utkin in a plane crash on August 23, two months after the mutiny, near the village of Kuzhenkino, Tver region, Russia. The Group had moved to Belarus to train their soldiers and pursue their mission to fight for Russia. 

• On September 6, the Al Qaeda affiliated Group in Mali, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), reportedly ambushed soldiers from the Wagner Group in the region of Segou in Mali on September 6. LSI Africa also reported the attacks; 11 Wagner group soldiers might have been killed, but the number is still subject to confirmation. 

• Private military companies (PMCs) such as Redut could replace the Wagner Group as “a key instrument of the Kremlin’s hybrid and conventional warfare”. It is a group under the direct control of the Russian Military Intelligence and reliant on the Kremlin for arms and ammunition supply. PMCs like Redut could likely be deployed to Africa. However, their lack of experience on the continent might be problematic in pursuing Russia’s goal of spreading its influence in Africa.

International Reactions

• The United Kingdom designated the Wagner Group as a terrorist organization under the Terrorism Act of 2000. The UK Home Secretary stated that the Group poses a threat to British nationals abroad as “Wagner has been involved in looting, torture, and barbarous murders”. Its operations in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Africa are a threat to global security”. Wagner’s activities and affiliation to the group will become a criminal offense; Wagner’s assets will be classified as “terrorist property”.

• The Pentagon spokesperson Air Force Brigadier General Pat Ryder declared that the “Wagner Group is essentially over” and that since it was the most powerful force deployed in Ukraine to fight the war, now Russia will have to turn and seek out “rogue regimes, to include Iran, attempting to try to obtain additional ammunition or weapons”.

Scenarios/Lines of Analysis

• After Prigozhin’s death, the group’s future is at stake. The group could likely be merged with Russia’s Defense Military or the military Intelligence agency, the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (GRU). Although the Wagner Group was never officially affiliated with the Kremlin, the group has been associated with the GRU. The group’s inclusion under the Russia MoD could likely impact the group’s organizational structure, and operations abroad. Wagner Group’s active members will likely be reluctant to join the Russian military and would prefer to be divided and remain associated with Wagner. Placing Wagner’s active members under the command of the Russian military would be very expensive due to their significant operations across the globe. Leadership-wise, Prigozhin’s prominent role in Wagner’s leadership will likely be challenging to replace, according to Steven Gruzd, head of the Africa Russia Project at the South African Institute of International Affairs. This is due to his long-standing career and the direction of Wagner, characterizing his personalism as a critical element, especially in propaganda distributed in social media sources.

• Wagner Group developed significant influence and power in Africa, making its operations likely difficult to sustain without its leader. For instance, Russia signed with the Central African Republic a deal in 2017 to deploy Wagner troops in the country. Their objective was to support the president in power, President Touadera, and to ensure his reelection. At the same time, the goal was to fuel anti-French sentiment and to develop support for Wagner and Russia among the population with disinformation campaigns. The group also controls the gold and diamond mining industries, which provides significant resources and money for further deployment of activities in the region. Hence, Russia is popular in Africa thanks to Wagner, and it is likely in Russia’s interest to continue to have Wagner’s “brand under Kremlin-approved leadership” to continue its operations in Africa.