By: Vanina Meyer

Summary

Wagner troops’ arrival in Belarus increased tensions with the neighbouring countries, like Poland. Early this week, Poland accused Belarus of violating its airspace during military training, accusations which Minsk denied. This resulted in the intensification of deployment of Polish troops at the border. Furthermore, Lithuania and Poland convened an urgent meeting to denounce Belarus's role in providing support to Russia and the Wagner Group at the EU and NATO borders.

Developments in Russia - Wagner - Belarus

●Between 3,450 and 3,650 Wagner soldiers have travelled to a camp close to Asipovichy, a town in Belarus about 230 km north of the Ukrainian border according to the Belarusian Hajun Project, which monitors military activities in Belarus. According to the same group satellite images show that 700 vehicles and construction equipment arrived in Wagner convoys.

●According to the Independent, the leader of the Wagner Group Mr Prigozhin registered a “real estate management company” in Belarus under the name of Concord Management and Consulting.

●On August 1, according to Poland, two Belarusian helicopters allegedly violated the airspace of Poland during training exercises, accusations denied by the Belarusian defence ministry. After this alleged incident, the Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak ordered a military reinforcement at the border.

●Last week, the Polish Prime Minister warned that the Wagner group with 100 mercenaries moved towards the Suwalki Gap. According to Adam Audruszkiewicz, Deputy-Minister of Digitalisation in the Podlasie region, Poland decided to build a barrier along the entire border with Belarus to seal the border and increased the presence of the military at the Polish border. Poland also reinforced military units in Kilno, Grajewo, Siemiatycze and Czerwony Bor. The Polish PM stressed that Wagner fighters could pose as migrants to enter the EU.

International Reactions

● Poland interprets the Wagner’s movement troops as a provocation orchestrated by Russia to destabilise the region. “Our response to the provocation is to increase the size of the Polish Army on the eastern border of the country by redeploying troops from the west,” Poland’s defense minister, Mariusz Blaszczak, said on Thursday at a televised meeting with troop commanders in Bialystok, a regional capital near the Belarusian border. The Polish Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, further stated that “this is certainly a step towards a further hybrid attack on Polish territory.”

● The President of Lithuania, Gitanas Nauseda, “cannot rule out such a threat” as for the presence of Wagner troops in the neighboring country of Belarus. Poland and Lithuania’s leaders met for an urgent meeting on August 3 in Suwalki, a town in the Suwalki Gap, warning about the possible increase in provocations from Russia at their borders. Both countries strengthened their military at their borders. For President Nauseda, the Suwalki corridor is a “vulnerable place” and “ remains a potential target of provocation by both Russia and Belarus”.

● Moving towards the Suwalki corridor can be seen as a possible attempt to put pressure on NATO and EU members. “NATO is closely tracking the situation along its eastern borders, including yesterday’s incident where two Belarussian military helicopters briefly crossed into Polish airspace at low altitude,” a NATO official said on customary condition of anonymity. “We are in close contact with the Polish authorities on this matter, and we will continue to do what is necessary to ensure all Alliance territory remains secure.”

● The head of Latvia’s State Border Guard, Guntis Pujats, told on August 2 that security risk at the border with Belarus increased since the country initiated an “hybrid warfare” with the arrival of migrants in the region to crowd the Polish border (among them could be Wagner troops) and the intensification of Wagner training centres in Belarus.

● The US ambassador to the United Nations, said earlier this month that the United States views the Wagner group as a threat. “And we have to ensure that the message is clear that any attacks by the Wagner Group will be seen as an attack by the Russian government.”

● The EU announced sanctions on Belarus amid providing help to Russia and crackdown on anti-government activists and on media personnel, travel bans and frozen assets on 38 Belarus officials and chemical companies.

Scenarios/Lines of Analysis

● Lithuania and Poland keep in mind the possibility of a scenario where Russian troops would be deployed to the Suwalki Corridor, cutting Poland and two Baltic states, Latvia and Estonia, the access from Poland and other NATO allies. This scenario includes Russia using Belarus to reinforce its positions.

●The presumably deployment of troops near the Suwalki gap could provide a direct link between Russia and Kaliningrad, which makes it an asset for Putin. Such deployment could signal that Russia is ready for escalation and confrontation with NATO. Provocations at the border with NATO states could likely intensify, Russia using Belarus to use the patience of the West.

● Regarding national security, Lithuania and Poland are on high alert as per their urgent meeting and their declarations. For some critics, Poland uses security threats to position itself for the upcoming parliamentary elections this fall, according to the opposition leader Donald Tusk, using fear to win the elections.

●Experts are more moderate about the possibility of escalation of tensions. The Chairman of the Seimas National Security and Defense Committee, explained that the Wagner Group does not currently pose a “conventional military threat” and it will depend on further scenarios of how they are armed and the orders given to them.