On Saturday 24 June 2023, Wagner Group’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, seized control over the city of Rostov-on-Don, which has been a strategic command centre for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Wagner forces also appeared to have a presence in Voronezh located just 500km from Moscow, with a goal to head toward the capital city. Russian President, Vladimir Putin, condemned the actions as “treason” as it appeared that an internal conflict in Russia was about to take place between Wagner Group forces and the Russian military. As the events were unfolding on that day, it is worth looking into the initial reactions of relevant states during and immediately after the events of the rebellion unfolded.

United Kingdom, United States, EU, and NATO

While the British Ministry of Defence monitored the movement of Wagner forces, focusing on the group’s occupation of Rostov-on-Don and its objective to get to Moscow, it stated that the rebellion “represents the most significant challenge to the Russian state in recent times” expressing that the loyalty of the Russian military and National Guard would play a crucial role in how the events will play out. During the first hours of the rebellion, US President Biden and Vice President Harris were briefed about the situation while US officials monitored the situation and assessed the impact of a scenario where Wagner troops were to have made their way to Moscow. Josep Borrell, the EU foreign policy chief, referenced Prigozhin as a monster of Putin’s own creation that sought to act “against his creator” and that the threat of rebellion revealed cracks and vulnerabilities within the Russian political system and its military power. Borell also took the time to express the need to continue supporting Ukraine in its counteroffensive efforts. NATO’s Jens Stoltenber said that the attempted rebellion reveals that Putin made a strategic “mistake” by launching the invasion of Ukraine.

Turkey, India, China, and Iran

Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, spoke to Putin as the events unfolded in Russia, advising him to act with common sense, and that Turkey would be there to help Russia with a solution to solve the situation. Erdogan expressed Turkey’s full support for the Russian leadership against the attempted rebellion by Wagner. In a telephone call with Putin, Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, expressed India’s support for the Russian leadership and its response to the Wagner rebellion and upholding the rule of law in Russia, while also discussing the urge for diplomacy and dialogue over the conflict in Ukraine. Chinese officials supported Russian leadership in “maintaining national stability and achieving development and prosperity” while also describing the rebellion as Russian “internal affairs”. China also accused the West of overblowing the situation, as the swift end of the attempted rebellion reassured Putin’s power remains strong in Russia. Iran reaffirmed its strong support for Vladimir Putin, with the Iranian Foreign Ministry stating that “Iran supports the rule of law in the Russian Federation” while also stating that the events were an internal matter for Russia. Iranian Foreign Minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, spoke to his Russian counterpart and expressed Iran’s confidence in Russia in the face of the attempted rebellion.

Aftermath 

As the Wagner forces neared the Moscow oblast, just 2 hours away from the city, Prigozhin signalled that his forces would halt their efforts and turn around. In a voice recording posted on his Telegram Channel, Prigozhin said, “Understanding all responsibility for the fact that Russian blood will be shed on one side, we will turn our columns around and go in the opposite direction to our field camps, in accordance with our plan.” This came after Belarusian President, Alexander Lukashenko, stated that he spoke with Prigozhin and Russian armed forces to negotiate a ceasefire and arranged for Prigozhin and Wagner Group forces to remain in Belarus.

After Prigozhin called off the rebellion, the reaction of Western allies was quite similar in that they continued to assess the events that unfolded, saying that the uprising revealed weaknesses within Russia’s leadership, and continued to express the importance of strengthening NATO and its support for Ukraine and its counteroffensive. UK Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, stated that the UK was ready for any scenario in Russia and that the rebellion revealed “real cracks” within the leadership of the Kremlin and Vladimir Putin’s regime. He also stated that it was too early to predict the outcome of the attempted rebellion. UK Foreign Secretary, James Cleverly, said that the actions by the Wagner Group “drove a coach and horses through President Putin’s case for war.” Biden reassured the public and international community that the US was “not involved” and had “nothing to do with” the rebellion, while declaring that the US would continue to assess the situation that unfolded as well as the implications that would result from it. Because of Wagner’s new presence in Belarus, Stoltenberg said that there would be an increase in military presence on NATO’s eastern flank to signal its commitment to protecting “every inch” of its member territories, in particular those that border Belarus. Polish and Lithuanian Presidents, Andrzej Duda and Gitana Nauseda both expressed their concerns and dangers over Wagner troops being based in Belarus. European Union leaders announced their continued commitment to strengthen the security of Ukraine. Josep Borrell stated that the EU should continue to increase training and army modernisation, as well as financial support for Ukraine.

Although Turkey, India, China, and Iran all reacted in the same way,  supporting Russia’s leadership against the rebellion, each of them took a different stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As a member of NATO, Turkey has played a unique role in the conflict by maintaining a relationship with both Kyiv and Moscow, by not imposing sanctions on Russia as all NATO members have, by providing Ukraine with drones, and by acting as a mediator in the conflict. This has allowed Turkey to continue its geopolitical and economic ambitions in the region. It must be noted however, that Erdogan’s quick decision to call Putin as the rebellion unfolded and show his support for Putin could have been a reciprocation to Putin’s support for the Turkish President during a coup attempt in 2016 that threatened to overthrow Erdogan. India has not condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, however, it has continuously expressed the importance of solving the conflict through diplomatic means and negotiations. While India has taken a neutral stance on the Ukrainian conflict, it continues to rely on Russia for defence needs and has taken advantage of sanctions imposed on Russian oil exports by continuing to purchase a large amount of oil from Russia at a lower price. China’s President, Xi Jinping, has often referred to his relationship with Putin as “dear friends”, and has not condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Although China has often used similar talking points as Russia regarding the conflict, they continue to call for peace talks and have made efforts to become mediators as they have personally met with both Russian and Ukrainian leaders to discuss the need for peace. Iran and Russia rely heavily on each other to avoid sanctions imposed on them by the West, with trade worth around $4.9 billion in 2022. This includes trade in oil and weapons. Iran and Russia also share the same vision of a “multipolar world order”, with a reduced role for the US on the world stage. Therefore, any instability in Russia would not bode well for Iran’s economic, political, and foreign policy objectives.