After a period of turmoil and widespread riots across the country, Senegal President Macky Sall has ruled out seeking a controversial third term. In Zimbabwe, a crackdown on opposition activities has been intensifying in the build up to the elections. And in South Sudan, President Kiir has stated that the country’s first elections will take place next year, although the legitimacy of this declaration is far from certain.

SENEGAL

Macky Sall Rules Out Third Term

President Macky Sall has declared that he will not be seeking a third term in the upcoming elections. The opposition leader, Idrissa Seck, has “commended President Sall for making the right and honourable decision” and described it as “a victory for the Senegalese people”.

The decision to run for a third term was seen as controversial and introduced tensions in one of the most politically and democratically stable countries in the region. Widespread riots earlier this year have been partially sparked by the president’s inability to rule out his candidacy.  

The decision has been widely praised throughout the West African bloc and the UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, has stated that Sall’s decision “represents a very important example for his country and the world”. His declaration opens the door for a number of Sall’s close allies to seek the country’s top position in the upcoming elections. This decision will most likely have to happen fast as Seck has already been confirmed to be the leading opposition party’s candidate. 

ZIMBABWE

Government Cracks Down on Opposition Rallies as Elections Approach

As the August elections are approaching in Zimbabwe, state forces have been obstructing opposition activities throughout the country. Nearly 100 opposition rallies have been banned or interrupted during the campaign period. The police, who have been accused of allying with the government forces, have been fully banning opposition gatherings on the premise of what the opposition believes to be illegitimate reasons. On July 9th, a large rally 100km from the capital was banned at the last minute due to poor sanitation facilities and road access. The lower court upheld the police’s ban. The opposition has accused the government of using state apparatus to thwart its efforts at a legitimate opportunity to challenge the government in the upcoming elections. 

This trend falls into a wider pattern of continuous state behaviour aimed at facilitating the way for the governing party to stay in power. Recently, the ruling party has sent campaign messages to registered voters via text messages, even those who are not party members. The message signed with President Mnangagwa’s name went out to around a million out of the 6 million registered voters in the country. During the registration of voters, phone numbers were captured as one of the data points for voters, which have been mishandled in what seems like a deliberate data breach. Digital activists have voiced their concerns that data rights have been abused for political influence, which poses a significant threat to activists and journalists as voters also have to submit addresses when they register. 

As election day approaches, the more difficult opposition’s operations are becoming. Zimbabwe’s administration has long foregone even an attempt to present itself behind a democratic facade, with the elections unlikely to pose any form of challenge to the governing ZANU-PF and President Mnangagwa. 

SOUTH SUDAN

President Kiir Declares Intent to Organise Elections in 2024

South Sudanese President Salva Kiir has stated that the country’s first elections will take place in 2024. Originally, elections were to be held in February of this year, however, the clauses of agreement between the government and the opposition have not been met within the necessary timeframe. Last August, the transitional government of Kiir as president and his biggest rival, Riek Machar as Vice-President, was extended for another two years. 

Despite the president’s verbal promises, the UN has criticised his government for inciting violence and impeding democratic freedoms rather than attempting to install them. UN Envoy Nicholas Haysom has stated that South Sudan is “not yet ready” for free, fair, and credible elections in 2024. However, he has stressed that with enough political will, investment in the necessary resources and desire to commit to democratic mechanisms progress could be made. 

Instability in Neighbouring Sudan Causes Mass Returns 

The country finds itself in a state of both political and security crises. The civil war took hundreds of thousands of lives and resulted in over 2 million people fleeing the country. One of the main destinations for refugees has been neighbouring Sudan, which is now facing its own civil war and has forced many refugees to return to South Sudan. Around 159,000 people have already crossed the border back into South Sudan since the Sudanese conflict arose and the UN stated that over 90% are people returning back home. With so many people coming back into South Sudan, there is an increased level of movement within the country’s borders. The number of people seeking shelter and security remains very high, which provokes competition between communities for already scarce resources, leading to visible tensions. 

Conclusion

Senegalese President Macky Sall has ultimately sustained the status of a democratic leader in an extremely volatile region after ruling out an electoral bid for a third term. However, the delay in the announcement suggests that the decision was more likely caused by political pressure rather than an altruistic motivation to champion democracy. Although his critics may be right in saying that announcing this decision earlier could have potentially spared at least some of the lives of the people who died during recent riots, the decision itself is good news for democracy. 

Despite the fact that South Sudanese President Salva Kiir has confirmed elections for 2024, the country’s road to stability and democracy has been painfully long. In the 12 years since the country’s independence, around half have been dominated by civil war. Over 159,000 South Sudanese refugees are returning due to the conflict in Sudan and with a scarcity of resources and unstable power dynamics within a weak state, the country seems destined for tensions and grievances that will further South Sudan’s insecurity regardless of any electoral outcome. 

President Kiir’s governance has been dominated by a corrupt system of patronage, which has rewarded loyalty and severely punished resistance while enabling him to hold power continuously for the past 12 years. As the country’s only ever president in charge of the state apparatus and its revenues, it is unlikely that he will find a sudden desire for democratic reform and take the risk of submitting himself to a legitimate contest.