Several African countries are struggling with insecurity as they prepare for elections this year. Backlashes against corruption and impunity are rising, with protestors facing oppression and violence. Opposition leaders and civil society activists are facing enormous challenges to have their voices heard. Unfortunately, the outlook on upcoming elections is grim as voting procedures are already being ruled as unfair.

ZIMBABWE

President Mnangagwa declared that he will announce the official date for the 2023 elections this week. Having an official date will conclude a lengthy period of speculation around the electoral calendar. Previously, the only piece of information known to the public has been an indication that the elections are likely to take place in July or August. As the official date will be announced, all sides of the political spectrum will begin an intensive campaigning period in the coming weeks.

One of the main axes of the existing campaign is the economic stability of the country. Zimbabwe has been facing high levels of inflation, poor economic performance and alarming level of food insecurity. The opposition's narrative is that the current regime is entrenched in corruption and that only a new government has the capability to stimulate a much needed economic upturn. The government claims that it has been able to guide the country through difficult economic decisions, which have yielded positive results and that they deserve another mandate to further promote growth and stability. The true scale of support for both the government as well as the opposition forces is unclear. However, fair democratic elections are unlikely due to the level of control President Mnangagwa’s allies have in the electoral process.


Audit Declares Zero Confidence

The Research and Advocacy Unit conducted an audit of pre-election procedures in the country and concluded that “there cannot be any confidence in the forthcoming elections” and that  “conditions for a free and fair election are absent”. The report highlights political influence on the electoral commission, restrictions on freedom of expression, and challenging registration procedures, especially for the opposition urban voter base as some of the main irregularities present in the current process. 

Controversial Procurement Law

President Mnangagwa is receiving backlash from opposition leaders and activists during his attempts to distance himself from a recent law passed that is aimed at concealing how taxpayers’ money is spent in the health ministry. “The notice published in the government gazette in early March declared that construction equipment and materials, biomedical and medical equipment, medicines and drugs, and vehicles – including ambulances – are among the list of items of national interest and shall not be publicly disclosed.” Civil society organisations were moving to challenge the law in court, declaring the statute as unconstitutional and demanding transparency. 

Mnangagwa claimed that the document was published without his approval, indicating an environment of “confusion” within the top levels of the government. “While further investigations are underway, the government wishes to advise the public that, on the instruction of His Excellency the President, the document in question has been rescinded as it has no standing at law, in policy and in terms of set government procedures. It thus should be disregarded,” stated Chief Secretary Misheck Sibanda. Concern is rising regarding the published law, causing worry that political leaders can act with “impunity”. According to political analyst Rashweat Mukundu, “What we are dealing with is a mafia that feels they are above the law that uses state power to abuse national resources. So regardless of the fact that this was withdrawn, the mere fact that someone sitting in a government office thought about this tells us of the level of the collapse of state management in this country.”

Military Intimidation

The military and intelligence forces have been heavily involved in controlling state structures, which has enabled them to informally campaign for the incumbent President. They have been accused of intimidating voters, preventing opposition candidates from campaigning in the government’s strongholds, heavily influencing the electoral bodies, and holding control of the electoral technological infrastructure. 

These elections do have the potential to cease ZANU-PF’s domination on Zimbabwean politics. Yet, the true scale of the opposition’s support will only become clear in the coming months. The election is likely to be closely contested. A recent poll based on 1,000 phone respondents has shown that currently opposition leader Nelson Chamisa is leading the incumbent President by over 10 per cent. However, these figures should be taken with extreme caution and cannot serve as any form of indication of what the final result will look like. The scale of the government’s interference in the electoral procedures as well as their ability to maximise outcomes in its rural base are likely to be key factors in the final results. With so much control over governmental instruments, a transition of power away from President Mnangagwa and ZANU-PF in a legitimate and democratic process is highly unlikely.

DRC

Attacks on Protestors

Security forces in the DRC have used tear gas to thwart anti-government demonstrators last week. Approximately 10 protesters have been detained, nearly 30 police officers were injured, and three policemen have been detained for using violence against a minor - an act which was condemned by the country’s human rights minister. The protest was called for by opposition leaders and people came out onto the streets in order to express their disapproval of reported infringements in voter registration for the 2023 December elections.

The opposition leaders have been accusing the government of not following constitutional procedures in appointing judges, nominating partisan members into the electoral commission and obstructing registration for voters in opposition stronghold regions. Grievances of the protesters were further exacerbated by the rising costs of living and lack of state control over the activities of militia groups in the east, where violence has been a significant threat to the security of citizens. The elections are about six months away and with a prevalent security crisis within its borders, electoral irregularities and reported ethnic discrimination of voters, tensions are likely to remain high throughout the campaign period. 

LIBERIA

Voter Registration Ended

Earlier this month, the Liberian National Elections Commission (NEC) ended its voter registration process. It was the first time the country used a biometric registration system in order to reduce the number of double registrations. However, the Elections Coordinating Committee (ECC) identified a number of irregularities that could impede the fairness of the democratic process. The NEC’s lack of consistency in conducting eligibility checks, as well as instances of voter trucking (the movement of voters to different locations in order to affect election results) and voter violence have all reduced the legitimacy of the procedures. 

The elections will take place on October 10th and due to Liberia’s strict requirement of 50 per cent majority means that the winner will most likely be chosen on the basis of their ability to build political alliances. Incumbent President Weah has been facing pressure due to accusations of corruption against senior allies, weak provision of public goods and services, and lack of adequate investment in the country’s infrastructure. However, he maintains a strong mandate from the ruling Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) party, especially in the face of a fragmented opposition. 

ANGOLA

President Cutting Russian Ties

President João Lourenço appears to be severing ties with Russia in order to deepen relations with the US. Lourenço is pushing for a meeting with President Joseph Biden this year in order to gain Western support as rumours are spreading that Lourenço is seeking a controversial third term. Lourenço stated in December that he wants the country to replace Russian military equipment with American, marking a significant development that could heighten US-Russian tensions in Africa as Angola is Russia’s fourth largest market for arms. 

Conclusion

Countries across the region are facing irregularities in their electoral processes. In the cases of Zimbabwe and the DRC, state mechanisms are creating an unfavourable environment for opposition groups. As a result, regardless of the true levels of support for the opposition, current governments hold significant levels of control over the electoral procedures. An indication that a transition of power in these countries is highly unlikely. Furthermore, state weakness continues to create a significant security risk in the DRC where the government’s inability to control militias in the eastern regions is likely to further exacerbate mistrust in the government. With the declaration that ‘free and fair’ elections are unlikely in some states, electoral violence is expected to be heightened and widespread.