As the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zimbabwe prepare for their upcoming elections, a myriad of challenges and events present significant electoral risks. From devastating floods, protests, insecurity and escalating ethnic violence to the exoneration of prominent novelists and court denials of postponement of elections, both countries navigate uncertain political landscapes. We examine the convergence of these factors and their potential impact on the electoral processes in the DRC and Zimbabwe.

DRC

Ethnic Violence Threatens DRC's Electoral Integrity

On April 24th,  the DRC's electoral commission concluded a nationwide initiative to update voter lists for the upcoming general elections in December 2023, as per a Human Rights Watch report released on May 9th. However, during the registration process, certain regions such as Goma, Bukavu, Nyagenzi, and Uvira in Eastern Congo saw violence and discrimination towards Banyamulenge, a Congolese Tutsi ethnic group from the South Kivu province. The incidents involved groups of youths who threatened, beat, and prevented the Banyamulenge from accessing registration centres. Human Rights Watch confirmed this information by speaking to the victims, witnesses, and community leaders, some of whom had experienced attacks by youth groups mobilised to defend their South Kivu localities against armed groups, including M23 rebels.

The increasing ethnic discrimination against Banyamulenge and Tutsi communities in Congo, particularly in the lead up to the December general elections, poses a significant threat to the country's stability and democratic process. The violence and discrimination towards these groups may lead to an uneven distribution of votes and hinder other national processes such as the population census and identification process. The continued appeal to ethnic prejudices by the parties to the conflict also suggests that this issue may persist even after the elections. Therefore, it is imperative that Congolese authorities take decisive action to prevent ethnic-based discrimination, including conducting comprehensive voter education campaigns and prosecuting individuals who commit ethnically motivated harassment and attacks. Failure to address these issues could lead to further instability and violence in the DRC.

Deadly Flooding Casts Shadow on Upcoming Elections

As of May 7th, the governor of South Kivu province, Theo Ngwabidje Kasi, announced that the death toll from flooding and landslides in the DRC has increased to at least 401. This figure marks a significant rise from the previous reports, which stated that the fatalities had reached 176, and many people were missing as rescue workers searched for victims. The flooding occurred when heavy rainfall caused rivers to overflow, resulting in 205 individuals sustaining severe injuries. Unfortunately, 167 individuals remain unaccounted for, adding to the gravity of the situation. These events could have potential implications for the political landscape of the country, especially with the general elections scheduled for December 2023. The current situation may hinder the government's ability to conduct voter registration and other necessary activities, as the authorities may be more preoccupied with disaster response efforts. Additionally, the flooding could lead to displacement and relocation of people, which could affect the allocation of voting resources and could potentially lead to accusations of voter fraud or suppression. The government must prioritise disaster response efforts and ensure that they do not impede the electoral process, as an effective response to the crisis is crucial in maintaining public trust and credibility in the upcoming election.

Protest Postponement Raises Concerns for Elections

On May 13, political activists associated with the Commitment for Citizenship and Development (ECIDE), Together for the Republic, Leadership and Governance for Development (LGD), and the All Volunteers for the Recovery of the DRC (ENVOL) planned a protest march in Kinshasa to condemn the insecurity in the eastern regions, high cost of living, and an alleged disorderly electoral process. However, due to concerns expressed by authorities regarding the demonstration's security, the organisers decided to postpone it until May 20. The postponement may indicate the organisers' willingness to cooperate with authorities to ensure public safety. However,  it could also have implications for the upcoming general elections, particularly if the march leads to significant demonstrations and violence, further destabilising the political landscape. This could have lasting consequences for the democratic process. It is therefore crucial to monitor the situation carefully and ensure that the protest remains peaceful and does not escalate into a full-blown political crisis.

President Accuses East African Forces of Colluding with M23 Rebels

On his visit to Botswana on May 9th, President Felix Tshisekedi accused the East African forces currently deployed in the DRC of colluding with rebels. The President expressed concerns about the East African Community (EAC) regional force's capability to fight M23 rebels in the eastern part of the DRC and alleged that the forces have cohabited with terrorists, which was not part of the original plan. Although Tshisekedi did not provide details of the collusion, he stated that his administration had to reevaluate its approach to the situation in the east. The President  also expressed his reservations about Kenya's decision to replace the commander of the regional forces without consulting the DRC's authorities. These allegations may have implications for the region's security and potentially destabilise the upcoming general elections in December. The accusations could further exacerbate existing tensions and divisions, potentially leading to violence and impeding the electoral process. Furthermore, these allegations could heighten mistrust between the DRC and its East African neighbours, which could have wider implications for regional cooperation and stability. As such, it is crucial to closely monitor the situation and take steps to mitigate any potential risks to the electoral process and regional security.

ZIMBABWE

Constitutional Court Denies Request to Postpone Elections

The Constitutional Court (CC) denied the request made by the former Zimbabwean main opposition party, Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), to postpone the elections on May 8th. The MDC had challenged the delimitation report of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) in February, alleging that it was biassed towards the ruling party, ZANU-PF. Delimitation involves dividing a country into constituencies and wards for election purposes, and when it is unfairly drawn to favour a political party, it is referred to as "gerrymandering". However, the Constitutional Court ruled against the MDC, stating that they had not presented sufficient evidence to prove the violation of fundamental rights or demonstrate how the demarcation of constituencies had affected those rights. The court also asserted that the case was outside its jurisdiction. The objective of the MDC's case was to postpone the upcoming presidential and legislative elections until new voting boundaries were reviewed. Nevertheless, the Constitutional Court ultimately decided to proceed with the elections as scheduled between July and August, disregarding the opposition party's efforts.

The ruling in favour of the ZEC has the potential to trigger allegations of a biassed electoral process, which, in turn, may escalate political tensions and destabilise the country. The MDC is expected to appeal the ruling and take the case to a lower court. This could lead to prolonged legal proceedings, exacerbating uncertainty surrounding the electoral process. Furthermore, ZEC's credibility to conduct free and fair elections will be called into question, further undermining confidence in the electoral system. It is crucial to closely monitor the situation and ensure that the elections are conducted with transparency, fairness, and peace to avert any adverse repercussions.

Acquittal of Renowned Novelists Places Zimbabwe's Political Activism Under the Spotlight

Renowned Zimbabwean filmmaker and novelist Tsitsi Dangarembga has been exonerated by the country's High Court of orchestrating an anti-government one man protest, which occurred in the year 2020 as per 8 May reports. Initially, Dangarembga had been handed a six-month suspended jail sentence and a fine after being found guilty of intent to incite public violence. However, following her acquittal on Monday, her lawyer, Harrison Nkomo, confirmed that she was absolved of the charge. Nkomo expressed gratitude to the court for acknowledging that Dangarembga had not committed any offence. 

The lower court had earlier found Dangarembga guilty of participating in a public gathering with the intent to incite public violence, while simultaneously breaking COVID-19 protocols. However, the High Court judges did not provide any immediate reasons for the acquittal. Dangarembga, who is known for her vocal stance against corruption in Zimbabwe, has been fighting for reforms and advocating for the right to demonstrate for years. Notwithstanding, Zimbabwean courts have been handing down strict sentences to political activists leading up to the general elections this year. Opponents and activists have also accused the police of quelling dissent. For instance, Jacob Ngarivhume, an opposition leader who was apprehended alongside Dangarembga for organising protests, was recently sentenced to four years in jail on charges of inciting violence.

Based on the information provided, the exoneration of Tsitsi Dangarembga from charges of inciting public violence could embolden other political activists to engage in protests or other forms of dissent, which could lead to increased political unrest and instability in the country. However, given the harsh sentences handed down by Zimbabwean courts in recent times, it is more likely that activists may be deterred from engaging in protests or other forms of dissent. Moreover, the police's reported suppression of dissent may further contribute to activists' hesitation to engage in protests or other forms of dissent. Ultimately, the impact of Dangarembga's exoneration on the electoral processes in Zimbabwe remains to be seen, and it is essential to keep an eye on the situation in the country in the lead-up to the general elections.

Conclusion

The DRC faces significant challenges with protests, ethnic violence, and natural disasters that could impact the electoral landscape. The discriminatory incidents against the Banyamulenge community and the government's response to flooding highlight the potential disruption to voter registration and resource allocation. Furthermore, allegations of collusion between East African forces and rebels add another layer of complexity to the political stability of the country. In Zimbabwe, the exoneration of Tsitsi Dangarembga may inspire other activists, but the harsh sentencing of political dissidents and reports of suppression by the police could discourage widespread protests. It is crucial to closely monitor these developments and their repercussions to ensure fair and peaceful elections while mitigating potential risks to stability and democratic practices in both countries.