The by-elections that were held in Zimbabwe earlier this year were a signal that change is on the horizon. With the CCC led by Nelson Chamisa scooping up many of the seats formerly being held by Zanu-PF members, hope for change in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) country has been expressed. But how much of this hope is well-grounded? Not much, if one looks at the history of Zanu-PF’s tactics of intimidation and violence during election periods, particularly when it comes to opposition parties attempting to gather, let alone express opposition to Zanu-PF.

Since 1980 when Zimbabwe gained independence, Zanu-PF has been the ruling party of the country; retaining leadership over politics for the past 32 years. Some maintain optimism that change will come. However, this is an unlikely scenario due to the deeply entrenched power structure.

What appears to be on the horizon is not peaceful electioneering or voter education but a gloomy outlook that many monitoring the run-up elections foresee.

The causes for this are manifold. Zanu-PF, for example, often addresses supporters freely countrywide, whereas opposition parties’ rallies have been banned. This makes it very difficult for any opposition party to gather, discuss the way forward with their supporters and constituents, and many, including female leaders, fear for their lives. This is despite the fact that there is a gender quota for women to enter the political space (31% or 81 seats in the National Assembly are reserved for women) and be placed on voters’ rolls in an effort for more gender representation.

Apart from the gender inequality and intimidation many opposition female politicians face, the police, as an extended arm and tool of the ruling party, frequently use assault at opposition gatherings and invite their anti-riot squad to break up proceedings, such as the recent arrest of several dozens of CCC supporters earlier this year. In fact, as an extension of the ruling party, Zanu-PF tanks with “poisoned water and batons” are at times used to intimidate residents. 

The disbalance in terms of freedom-to-gather is not new. Some CCC officials have cited the disbandment, interruption, or outright refusal of opposition gatherings as being done for “frivolous reasons.” The CCC has also cited violence and intimidation as a major tactic by the ruling party to prevent it from gathering and meeting its members freely. 

Other tactics that are used include the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) often failing to disclose the voter’s roll for inspection to the opposition on time; violating electoral rules of the country. Despite the involvement of human rights lawyers and NGOs who have continually raised these issues and brought some to court, little is expected to change in terms of the ruling party’s machinations in the run-up to the 2023 general elections.

In the run-up to the by-elections earlier this year, some CCC rallies were banned by the police with meetings being disrupted. This is further exacerbated by the fact that at least 37 of its supporters were arrested. Many view this as a “test-run for the general elections next year”. Moreover, Zimbabwean human rights NGO Forum has recorded nearly 2,000 cases of political violence in the country between this January and October alone. According to NGO Forum, the situations range from “arbitrary arrests, malicious damage to property, arson, threats/harassment/intimidation as well as assault and torture.”

Violence and election rigging is not new in Zimbabwe’s political landscape, particularly by the ruling Zanu-PF. The reasons for this are simple: the retention of power. Yet, by intimidating voters and the opposition, their attempt to stifle local voices, and inability to meet their needs could backfire. Zanu-PF is again expected to bring out water cannons, police, and other intimidation tactics to ensure it remains at the helm of the country’s leadership in 2023. 

Any results of the elections that can be perceived to be against Zanu-PF’s interests are expected to be contested, such has occurred in the past with former opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai. In sum, while the CCC may have garnered multiple seats in the by-elections, the 2023 elections are going to be a true test as to whether Zimbabwe is on the road to reform or will the country repeat the same tumultuous corruption practices that has been seen in its political landscape?