Civil unrest in Senegal has brought a crisis to one of the most politically stable countries in the West African region. Uncertainty around the electoral procedures and treatment of political opponents has created civil unrest in a country, which for years has been heralded as a model of democratic stability for the region. Additionally, approaching elections in other countries on the African continent are also increasing tensions as controversies over the opposition’s right to fair elections have been doubted. 

SENEGAL

On 1 June, Ousmane Sonko, one of the Senegalese opposition’s most prominent politicians, was sentenced to two years in prison. Sonko was charged and convicted with “corrupting the youth” by having intimate contact with someone younger than the age of 21. Although Sonko denied the allegations, his conviction means he is now disqualified from taking part in the February 2024 election. Sonko was also charged with raping a woman and making death threats against her but was acquited on those charges. Feminists in Senegal are in fear that the acquittal of rape charges will set the country back in its fight for gender equality as the court dismissed a rare chance in attaining justice for victims of sexual violence. Aminata Libain Mbengue of the Feminists’ Network of Senegal stated, “This trial is a huge setback that will leave its mark on the history of women’s rights.”

His detention has sparked widespread protest in multiple cities across the country, with Sonko supporters accusing the government of using the judicial system to instrumentally eliminate potential opponents for the upcoming elections. Violence began at a central university campus in Dakar and spread into other cities. Among the sites targeted by the protestors were homes of ministers, foreign-owned supermarkets, and petrol stations. As of 10 June, there have been 16 deaths as a consequence of the riots. 


Protest Motives

The protests were not purely caused by the arrest of Ousmane Sonko alone. They were incited by President Macky Sall’s attempt to secure a controversial third term. He was elected for the first time in 2012 and then reelected in 2019. The constitution was amended in 2016 and states that the president cannot serve “more than two consecutive mandates”. President Sall is claiming that an update to the Constitution during his time in office exempts his first term from the rule. He has not yet officially declared a desire to run, but has not ruled it out, sparking concerns over the condition of the country’s democratic legitimacy. 

This situation resembles the conditions in which the current president came into power over 10 years ago. His predecessor, Abdoulaye Wade, tried to secure a third term by claiming that his first term was exempted from the laws first implementing a limit on presidential terms in 2001. In 2012, Sall’s victory put an end to those plans. His win occurred in the spirit of a civil movement which pledged resistance against Wade’s regime and also sparked protest. Now, President Sall is using the same argument as his predecessor. Taking into consideration that the Senegalese elections are scheduled to take place in February, Sonko’s detention rules out a key rival for the president. Opposing voices claim that the judicial decision to punish the opposition leader is a purposeful attempt at eliminating the president’s fiercest opponent before any official campaign has even begun. However, this has been denied by the government.


Detention

Sonko is under house arrest in his home in Dakar. Sall acknowledged the protests and condemned “unprecedented violence” in his message earlier this week, but did not mention anything about Sonko nor about his personal plans of pursuing the presidency. Others who have expressed support for Sonko and tried to visit his house have also been detained. As a result of the protests, the government has cut out internet access across the country. Whatsapp and social media users have been unable to log into the respective platforms. Officially, this was done “to stop the dissemination of hate and subversive messages". Sonko currently remains “effectively under house arrest” and his supporters have warned that they will continue the fight for his release. 


Consequences for Citizens 

Since the most deadly days of the riots, the protests have been subdued and unrest has diminished. Despite the unrest reducing, the consequences for the citizens are still very much real. Few petrol stations have remained open “in fear of attack”, with many banks still remaining closed. Many citizens still have to queue for hours in order to withdraw their money. Demonstrations are economically unsustainable for many residents. Significant groups have been unable to go to work due to the scale and intensity of the demonstrations causing a security threat to their livelihoods. 


Tensions Likely to Rise Again

As long as President Sall does not rule it out, pursuing a third term remains an option on the table. He is expected to share a decision at the end of the month. One scenario is that he does not seek a third term but instead extends his current term to 2026, postponing the election by an additional two years. This option has been divisive and has not been met with the opposition’s approval. 

Internationally, Senegal has been celebrated for stability and democratic maturity in a region often tainted by political unrest. However, the detention of Ousmane Sonko is likely to be a heavily politicised event for both sides of the political spectrum. Opposition supporters are likely to return to the streets, as a lack of declaration from the president will only increase tensions in the build up to the elections. 


ZIMBABWE

On 31 May, the Zimbabwean government passed the ‘Patriotic Bill’, which raised concerns around further restrictions put on the opposition’s ability to campaign. Although the bill is yet to become law, it has already raised significant controversy due to the list of actions that are expected to become penalised on its merit. The Patriotic Bill prescribes punishment as harsh as the death penalty for “damaging the sovereignty and national interest of Zimbabwe”. 


Threat to Freedom of Expression

Human Rights groups have expressed concerns that the bill will criminalise Zimbabweans taking part in meetings outside of the country and that its “extraterritorial application” will have a significant effect on reducing civil society activities abroad. Other potential punishments for “anti-patriotic” behaviour could include prison sentences for up to 15 years, citizenship annulment, and banishment from taking part in elections. The opposition highlights how the bill could be used instrumentally in order to abuse the government’s authority and clamp down on opponents by impeding freedom of expression. It is deliberately broad and covers an unspecified scope of punishable offences. Human rights groups and opposition forces are worried how it can give the government additional instruments to penalise activism and civil society actions.


SIERRA LEONE

Sierra Leone will be holding its combined presidential, parliamentary, and local representative elections on 24 June. The vote will be a rematch of the 2018 elections where current president Julius Maada Bio beat opposition leader Samura Kamara by a narrow margin. President Bio will need over 55 per cent in the first round in order to secure his reelection without a second round. However, two political parties whose candidates together earned around 10 per cent of the votes five years ago are not fielding candidates in the upcoming elections, which could make the margin between Bio and Kamara even closer. 


Revision of Electoral Procedures

Changes were made to the parliamentary and local electoral system in 2022 with a district proportional representation system replacing the previous first-past-the-post process. The reform was controversial upon introduction, but was ultimately deemed legal by the Supreme Court. As a result, the new system favours the two main parties and increases the risk of smaller parties being swept out of parliament. Opposition has also been raising concerns around the voter registration process, which according to them disadvantages certain electorate groups and as a result could tip the vote in favour of the incumbent president. 


Kamara’s Court Case

Samura Kamara has been accused of mismanagement of public funds during his years as a foreign minister between 2012-2017. The court case first began in 2021 and has been extended for more than two years. The case will be heard in July, which according to critics is not coincidental and the slow pace is aimed at giving the opposition leader an additional distraction throughout the intensive campaigning period. 


Razor-thin Margins

The country already experienced protests in August of last year, which resulted in over 20 deaths. The manifestations were provoked by an increase in cost of living and an overall poor economic condition of the country. Although the scale of the protest is unlikely to repeat, clashes between supporters as well as the security agencies cannot be ruled out. With a highly contested election, grievances around electoral procedures and lack of economic stability are likely to generate high levels of tensions throughout the political spectrum. Four years ago, Julius Maada Bio beat Samura Kamara 43.3 per cent to 42.7 per cent in the first round, 51.8 per cent to 48.2 per cent in the second round. The razor-thin margins could become even thinner between the two candidates in the elections later this month.


Conclusion

Protests in Senegal have brought unrest to one of the most politically stable countries in the West African region. The detention of one the opposition’s most prominent politicians pushed his supporters out to the streets, yet the president’s lack of transparency around his potential bid for a third term further adds to the civil unrest. The protests serve as a reminder that when a realistic transition of power appears on the horizon, tensions can escalate regardless of the existing maturity of the democratic system. 

In many countries across the continent the incumbents hold an imbalanced level of influence over state structures, which deprive the opposition of a fair challenge. Zimbabwe serves as an example of a country where the government’s control of the legal and political sphere in reality minimises opportunities for a legitimate transition of power. The risk of these mechanisms leading to unfair elections remains high throughout the continent.