Climate change is a major driving force behind migration and is one of the most controversial topics in today's geopolitical debates. Migration is often a reaction to dramatically shifting climate conditions, which is especially evident in Africa where rural flight - often partially driven by climate change - is a significant contributor to increasing urban populations. According to some estimates, 216 million people could be displaced across six world regions by 2050 as a direct result of climate change. The number is highest in Africa, where it is projected that as many as 86 million people will become internal climate migrants. This issue is notably prominent in Tunisia; Tunisias constitute the predominant nationality among migrants travelling to Europe via the Mediterranean Sea, comprising 18.7%.

 Between 2009 and 2014, 46,000 people migrated to Tunis, and around 119,600 people migrated to the central and southeast regions of Tunisia. Although, according to the Wilson Center, about 64% of individuals who pass through Tunisia are principally motivated by economic factors, it is important to note that climate change and economic performance are interconnected. In rural regions the economy is especially dependent on climate; thus, climate change is a significant contributor to the deteriorating economic conditions that drive migration.  

Climate change: The primary driver of the Tunisian migration crisis

Climate change trends in Tunisia highlight a consistent increase in observable average seasonal temperatures. Between 1901-1930 average annual temperatures were 10.63, 17.60, 27.17, and 20.61 celsius for winter, spring, summer, and autumn, respectively. In contrast, between 1991-2020, these averages were 11.62, 18.96, 29.12, and 22.09 for the same seasons. In the last 30 years alone, temperatures increased by 0.4 celsius per decade on average. A similar pattern is observable for precipitation, which has decreased by 3% per annum since 1901, according to the World Bank. These changes have an impact on agricultural yield in the country, which is influenced by temperature and precipitation fluctuations as well as extreme climatic events. In addition to agricultural production, these changes affect ecosystems, which play a crucial role in national food security. Moreover, the low precipitation rate combined with temperature increases directly facilitates soil degradation and the multiplication of pests and diseases. 

Although Tunisia only moderately relies on agriculture, which accounts for 12% of the country's GDP, the agricultural sector employs around 16% of the country’s population. Younger generations in rural areas that rely on agriculture are more likely to migrate to urban centres or abroad as they search for more stable livelihoods and socio-economic prospects. Although these decisions are economic, the precarious economic state many in Tunisia find themselves in is driven by climate change as it causes rural areas to become less fertile.

This exodus in part explains Tunisia’s 16.1% unemployment rate. High unemployment in Tunisia is magnified by urban migration. This is an increasing economic risk as Tunisia's slowly developing economy cannot provide sufficient employment opportunities to migrants. But Tunisia’s rural-urban migration is only a fragment of a broader issue. Over the years, Tunisia has evolved into a pivotal junction for international migrants seeking passage into Europe. Historically, Libya occupied the central role as a transit hub for migration northwards. However, from 2017 onwards, the influx of migrants reaching Italian shores from Libya declined due to increased Italian support for the Libyan coastguard. By 2020, 40% fewer migrants departed from Libya, with Tunisia emerging as the new epicentre for transit to Europe via the Mediterranean. 

This is partly due to the current political situation in Tunisia, where the government has begun to silence dissent and terrorise opposition figures. Political oppression is a key trigger for migration, including for migrants from other parts of Africa who reside in Tunisia. The government has accused African migrants of bringing violence into the country, which has instigated aggression towards the migrant population. A report from 5 July described a machete attack on a group of migrants in the city of Sfax, which left two people wounded. In this case, the economic hardships brought on by climate change can also lead to political oppression, which further influences migration. Many critics, namely the Tunisian Forum for Economic and Social Rights, have stated that the anti-migration speech given by Tunisian President Kais Saied on 21 February was designed to distract Tunisians from ongoing economic problems.

Migration and Europe

Migration is currently at the top of the European political agenda as more migrants continue to attempt to travel to the EU. Between January 2023 and July 2023, the number of migrants travelling to Europe rose by 13% and reached 176,100, the highest figure since 2016. Simultaneously, migrants have started to use a sea route through the Central Mediterranean, which according to Frontex, is the most dangerous. Increasing pressure is being placed on Tunisia and Libya to curb the influx of migrants. In both countries smugglers are offering lower prices for passage to Europe, leading to higher demand for their services.

For European countries, and specifically for point of arrival countries, migration is starting to become a major financial and political struggle. Italy, which has the highest number of arrivals, spent around 1.7 billion euros on migrant reception alone in 2018. This is causing political dilemmas as Italy and other countries begin to question the role of the EU in dealing with irregular migration. In 2018, the EU contributed only 46.8 million euros, or 2.7% of total Italian spending on migration-related measures. Increasing pressure from its member states has forced the EU to rely on alternative solutions. On 16 July, the EU signed a memorandum of understanding with Tunisia, which includes a 700 million euro funding package for the country. 105 million euros are to be designated for migration management. 

The EU is attempting to transfer the responsibility for migration to the port of origin countries; however, sceptics question the ethics and sustainability of such an approach. In the case of Tunisia, the official purpose of the EU support package is budgetary support. But given the rising tensions in Tunisia, it is difficult to predict how much is going to be allocated to providing services to migrants in need. Further, accounting for the Tunisian government's recent rhetoric surrounding migration and its resulting violent consequences, the EU’s migration policy may lead to human rights abuses at the hands of Tunisian security forces. In Libya, where the EU provided financial assistance for migration management efforts, people face high levels of violence and abuse from the coast guard and other militias. 

Despite the decrease in the number of individuals attempting to journey to the EU from Libya, the EU has faced allegations of overlooking human rights violations in Libya, and adopting short-term measures rather than formulating a substantive, enduring solution. As the numbers of those migrating from Libya dwindled, a corresponding surge occurred in Tunisia. Implementing a similar approach in Tunisia would likely have similar results, facilitating human rights abuses and pushing migration routes into neighbouring countries. According to a Human Rights Watch report from 19 July, three days after the memorandum was signed, there had already been documented cases of abuses against migrants by Tunisia’s security forces. These included torture, arbitrary arrests, and detention. The report also states that the majority of these incidents occurred after the presidential speech on 21 July. 

Implications 

Although it is difficult to estimate the impact of the signed memorandum between Tunisia and the EU, organisations should monitor the development of efforts, especially with regard to potential human rights abuses. Tunisia should be held accountable for how it spends the money it receives from the EU. Although Tunisian efforts to address criminal groups that facilitate illegal migration into Europe have the potential to reduce the overall number of migrants travelling from Tunisia to the EU, these efforts could come at a cost. As climate change continues to worsen, many will continue to migrate north as supplies become scarcer, employment more difficult, and conflicts more frequent. As Tunisia battles internal and external migration, it has the chance to create a policy - which can act as an example for other African nations - that aims to forge long-term solutions and combat the source of the problem, not just the symptoms of it.