Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s former Prime Minister from 1980 to 1987 and President from 1987 to 2017, collectively ruled the country for a period of nearly four decades since independence. Under his rule, which has been described as governing with an iron fist, Zimbabwe underwent tremendous changes. Mugabe was forced out of power in November 2017 with current Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa at the helm of Zanu-PF leadership and Zimbabwe. 

The events that led up to Mnangagwa gaining leadership of the country were preceded by what may be described as a coup, although the military that placed Mugabe under house arrest stated that it was not a military takeover of the government, Mugabe was still the country’s commander in chief. Their main aim was to target “criminals” that surrounded Mugabe and who were deemed responsible for the country’s economic decline. These accused criminals included members of Mugabe’s cabinet, prominent G40 leaders, and supporters of his wife Grace, who had started infiltrating Zimbabwean politics, seeking to gain power and leadership and oust the opposition.

The military also opposed Grace Mugabe’s underhanded tactics to gain a quick ascension to political power. Such tactics included becoming head of Zanu-PF’s Women’s League after she sought to enter politics more actively in 2014 and become Mugabe’s successor, whilst gaining support from the G40 and the Youth League. Despite receiving the nomination to head the Women’s League, she does not come from a background of independence struggle and has also not gone through grassroots levels, as stipulated by the party’s constitution.

Prior to these events, Mnangagwa was fired as Vice President in 2017 after Mugabe accused him of plotting to take power from him. However, on 24 November 2017, Mugabe submitted his resignation as President just as impeachment proceedings would be held against him. As such, Mnangagwa succeeded Mugabe and took on the role of President of Zimbabwe. 

In the general elections that followed in 2018, Mnangagwa maintained his position as Zimbabwe’s president. Nicknamed the “crocodile,” Mnangagwa’s leadership does not appear to diverge much from Mugabe’s reign. His promises have included job creation (Zimbabwe’s current unemployment rate is estimated to range from around 5% to figures that go in the upper tens of the percentile, depending on whether one includes informal employment as well) and compensation for those who had their land seized by the government in the past. Other promises have included fair, democratic elections, as well as financial stability. 

However, the results on the ground paint a different picture. Since Mnangagwa came to power in 2018, over one million Zimbabweans have fled the country owing to a plethora of reasons, among which include rising inflation and unemployment. 

Other Mugabe-era challenges that prevail to this day include corruption, nepotism, and intimidation. This is despite the fact that when he came to power he promised that he would seek to open up to economic reforms and rekindle ties with foreign investors and the international community. Prior to this, the international community had largely shunned Zimbabwe under Mugabe’s leadership. 

Given the fact that Mugabe and Mnangagwa served so closely together for decades, and their credentials as independence heroes in the country, it does not appear that Mnangagwa will keep his promises. Old, underhanded tactics to destabilise the opposition, such as limiting their right to assemble and hold peaceful meetings, arresting and detaining opposition members, and the police using force against them, continue to be used to this day. 

Mnangagwa’s history is a chequered one. He was arrested for his role in blowing up a Rhodesian train in the pre-independence struggle and was sentenced to death. However, his young age then prevented him from getting the death penalty and he instead served out a 10-year prison sentence. 

After his release, he entered politics and served in the Central Intelligence Office in various ministries and ministerial roles, culminating in the role as Vice President just before Mugabe resigned. He has also been accused of being a part of orchestrating a genocide in which over 20,000 people were killed in the 1980s, although he has denied any involvement and wrongdoing. The genocide or massacre, also referred to as Gukurahundi, took place from 1983 to 1987 and targeted Ndebele civilians by the Fifth Brigade of the Zimbabwe National Army. At that time, Mnangagwa was the Minister of State for National Security. The wounds of the past remain with many Zimbabweans to this day and they are a cause of deep resentment and frustration.

Regarding the upcoming 2023 elections, Mnangagwa is highly unlikely to release his grip on power and old tactics used during the Mugabe regime of stifling the opposition are likely to remain. He is highly likely to mobilise all the instruments he has at his disposal, including the army and police, to break up and prevent opposition rallies. Further challenges include the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission’s (ZEC’s) close ties with the ruling party and its unwillingness to share voters’ rolls in time for open inspection, amongst multiple other grievances the opposition has raised against the ZEC. As such, the electoral process is likely to feel unfair to many in the opposition and the people on the ground. Human rights violations are also expected to continue as opposition parties attempt to garner support. Therefore, despite being a democracy on paper, Zimbabwe is not expected to experience fair and democratic elections. 

However, in the first post-Mugabe elections in 2018, many Zimbabweans were hopeful and optimistic about change in the country. Unfortunately, political, social, and economic change appears unlikely if Mnangagwa remains at the helm of Zimbabwe. With a focus on cementing his power and retaining the status quo, it will be difficult for the opposition to break through the long-established institutions that appear to favour Mnanagagwa and Zanu-PF. 

Mnangagwa was recently endorsed as Zanu-PF’s presidential candidate and despite talking left, and walking right, his rhetoric for reform is unlikely to come to fruition. The opposition will have a long road ahead and many challenges to overcome in trying to secure seats in the National Assembly. At the very least, once they gain even a small foothold in Parliament they need to remain vigilant and act as watchdogs over Zanu-PF’s actions in an attempt to keep the party and its leadership accountable, in terms of the broadly outlined roles and duties of an opposition party in the National Assembly. However, with the deep entrenchment of Zanu-PF’s power, acting as a watchdog will not be enough. This is especially the case if the opposition does not secure a sufficient number of seats. Working together with civil society could help the opposition strengthen its voice and impact. However, due to the numerous limitations placed on civil society in Zimbabwe and Zanu-PF’s “unfriendly” and sceptical attitude toward NGOs that are foreign funded, this role is likely to have limited impact. 

Despite much talk about democracy and following democratic processes by Zanu-PF, the 2023 elections are likely to be a democratically superficial act. The opposition will face significant resistance from Zanu-PF and its deeply entrenched organs of state in terms of being able to campaign and canvass to gain voter support. As such, the opposition, while it has the potential to play a crucial role in Zimbabwean politics, is expected to face an uphill battle through continued arrests of its members, possible protests, and basic rights abuses carried out by police and security forces. Although the 2023 elections might ensure procedural accuracy, there are unlikely to be any significant developments in the substance of the political fabric of Zimbabwe in that no meaningful change is expected to take place.