Following the outbreak of violence in northern Kosovo on 26 May, the relationship between Serbia and Kosovo has deteriorated considerably, and fears of it bringing increased instability in Europe, coupled with the war in Ukraine, have been expressed. Tensions have escalated in other parts of the Balkan region, exacerbating long-standing ethnic divisions. On the international stage, there have been conflicting reactions to the tension, with European countries adopting a more balanced approach, while others, such as China and Russia, firmly side with Serbia. How will the conflict develop and what could an escalation of the situation mean?

Background information

A Western-backed plan between the governments of Serbia and Kosovo was verbally agreed in March 2023 with the aim of defusing tensions between the two countries, and specifically granting further autonomy to Serbs living in various regions of Kosovo, with the government in Pristina  retaining authority. To this end, local elections were held in four regions of northern Kosovo where Serbian communities are dominant, after Serbian representatives abandoned their posts in protest at the end of 2022. The aim was to improve representation and coordination in education, healthcare, economic development, and land planning between the Serbs and the government of Kosovo at the local level. However, the low turnout in the April 2023 elections, specifically 3.47%, and the election of ethnic Albanians as mayors of the four municipalities, was not favourably received by the 50,000 Serbs living in the regions, who claimed that they did not feel well represented and that demands for increased autonomy had not been met.

Nemanja Starovic, state secretary of Serbia’s Ministry of Defence said the local elections were a “unilateral attempt by Pristina Albanian authorities to forcefully install Albanian mayors in the four municipalities in the north of Kosovo, which does have a Serbian majority.”

Recent developments

On 26 May in Zvecan, one of the towns where the elections were held, the Kosovo police, staffed by ethnic Albanians, fired tear gas in an attempt to disperse the crowd of Serbs who had broken through security barricades to forcefully enter the municipality building, according to one witness, to prevent the newly elected mayor from entering his office. Furthermore, NATO peacekeepers blocked off the municipality of Zubin Potok to prevent the same attempts to enter, with the other four ethnic Albanian mayors being escorted by police to their offices. Additionally, the President of Serbia ordered an urgent movement of troops towards the Kosovo border, which was announced live on television by the Defence Minister, Milos Vucevic. 

Violence has since escalated, with Serbian protesters in Zvecan throwing Molotov cocktails and hitting the riot shields of NATO's KFOR troops in Kosovo with metal pipes, setting cars on fire and firing shots. Hundreds of ethnic Serbs alsogathered with a 250-metre-long Serbian flag. However, some have argued that the flag may be Russian, as reports have also identified spray-painted ‘Z’ on NATO vehicles, a reference to a Russian sign that has been frequently used in the war in Ukraine. The significance of this will be explored further in this article.

International responses

The escalation of the situation prompted NATO to announce “prudent steps” by increasing the number of KFOR troops from 700 to 4,000 in order to give it “the forces and capabilities it needs to fulfil its mandate.” Turkey also announced that they will be sending commandos to Kosovo as per NATO’s request. Furthermore, Stoltenberg commented that “such attacks are unacceptable and must stop. KFOR, the NATO forces, will take all necessary actions to maintain a safe and secure environment for all citizens in Kosovo, and will continue to act impartially, in line with our United Nations mandate.”.

The President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, announced that “We have never had a more difficult and bigger crisis” and that Serbia would “not sit idle”. For his part, Kosovo's President, Vjosa Osmani, asserted that the Kosovo police was acting “against Vucic's illegal structures and criminal gangs… in fulfilment of their constitutional duties to defend all citizens without distinction.”

The United States (US) and the European Union (EU) reprimanded Kosovo for the escalation of tensions with Serbia and urged Pristina to put an end to the violence in order to not face “consequences”. In his statement, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, stated that Kosovo’s actions were “sharply and unnecessarily escalated tensions, undermining [Western] efforts to help normalise relations between Kosovo and Serbia and will have consequences for our bilateral relations with Kosovo”.  Furthermore, reports have indicated that the relations between Kosovo and the US have deteriorated, with Washington imposing sanctions on Kosovo, such as cancelling Kosovo’s participation in the Defender Europe 2023 military exercise, because of the violence.  

Similarly, Britain, France, and Germany issued astatement calling on Kosovo and Serbia to de-escalate the situation and “to immediately step back and de-escalate, and to closely coordinate with EULEX (the EU mission) and KFOR (NATO's mission) in Kosovo.” Furthermore, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called for new elections in northern Kosovo. These developments resulted in ameeting between Osmani and Vucic on 1 June in Moldova, as requested by the EU. No formal agreement has been reached to end the escalation of the situation.

The bigger picture

Aleksandar Vucic is reportedly facing an unprecedented revolt against him following the two mass shootings that took place in Serbia in early May and in combination with his autocratic rule. The opposition accuses him of causing divisions in Serbia. In addition, opposition supporters have mobilised to demand his resignation. As such, one may predict that the escalations between Serbia and Kosovo may be used by the President to strengthen his political position in the country, as he continues to demand the withdrawal of the mayors in Kosovo, and has proclaimed himself as the defender of the nation. In the same vein, Russia, which remains Serbia’s ally, has accused Kosovo of increasing tensions and exacerbating the conflict, while blaming the growing tensions in the region on the US and the EU. More recently, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov declared that “a big explosion is looming in the heart of Europe.” Reports claim that Russia has no interest in the issue with Kosovo being resolved. Furthermore, Russia’s involvement in other parts of the Balkans may be worrying, as the pro-nationalist and pro-Russian Bosnian Serb leader, Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik, has expressed his desire to see the Serb Republic become autonomous, independent from the rest of Bosnia, in order to unite with Serbia. This has raised fears of ethnic divisions in Bosnia.

Overall, the impact of the escalations between Serbia and Kosovo and the effects they could have on European stability, combined with the destabilisation caused by the war in Ukraine, are still unclear. The international community, specifically the EU and the US, has made significant efforts to support the negotiation process between Serbia and Kosovo. However, Kosovo has been criticised for provoking tensions by allowing ethnic Albanian mayors to take office in Serb-dominated municipalities, despite the low turnout due to the boycott of elections in northern Kosovo by ethnic Serbs. As well as threatening to end support for international recognition of Kosovo, the US has also excluded Kosovo from the "23 Defender" military exercise. In this context, there has been growing frustration among Serbs living in Kosovo at being used as “bargaining chips” in the negotiation process, according to Tare, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

It is essential that efforts are made to integrate the Serb minority living in Kosovo in order to normalise relations not only between the two states, but also with the international community, in particular the EU and the US, especially as the creation of an Association of Serb Majority Municipalities was agreed in the 2013 Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo. With the aim of normalising relations between Kosovo and Serbia, the agreement set out the establishment of the aforementioned Association to integrate Kosovo Serbs from the northern municipalities into Kosovo's institutions. Ethnic Serbs expected the creation of the Association to provide institutional autonomy to the communities concerned and overall integration into Kosovo’s political system. However, the vagueness of the nature and the power of the approved Association was heavily criticised by the opposition and the Kosovar public, leading to mass protests and a petition with 200,000 signatures that was presented to the Parliament. This situation delayed the process of establishing the Association. 

Given the current situation and escalating tensions, this Association is all the more essential to ending the violence as it would integrate Serbs living in Kosovo into political institutions and allow a certain level of self-management in Serb-dominated municipalities. Ultimately, the normalisation of relations between Kosovo and Serbia is key for their respective paths towards Euro-Atlantic integration, as well as for Kosovo’s bilateral relations with the US. Similarly, neutralising Russian influence in Serbia, and more broadly in the Balkans, is extremely important and dependent on how the current situation develops. Only time will tell how tensions between Kosovo and Serbia will develop and how this will affect the region as a whole.