Throughout the month of October, Venezuela’s northern cities of Maracay and Las Tejerías were severely impacted by continuous and heavy rainfall. As a result, landslides and inundations affected both towns and their surroundings. Located less than 100 kilometres away from the Venezuelan capital, Caracas, the region is facing not only significant infrastructural damage, but also considerable human losses: more than 55 people have lost their lives, and at least eight remain missing. Moreover, local authorities estimate that 1,160 families have been directly or indirectly impacted, contributing to a potential group of displaced people that could amount to approximately 3,770 individuals.

Although some news websites have exclusively associated the heavy and abundant rainfall with the natural weather phenomenon La Niña, a “climate pattern that describes the cooling of surface ocean water along the tropical west coast of South America”, according to National Geographic, other sources have drawn attention to climate change and its impacts. It is suggested that intense rainfall events and other extreme weather events are directly linked to climate change. In addition, reports of heavy rainfall and severe flooding in Venezuela from 2015, prior to La Niña, seem to indicate that climate pattern is not the only factor at play. It is worth noting that, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), “all naturally occurring climate events now take place in the context of human-induced climate change.” In this sense, the current La Niña event has become the first “triple-dip” of the century, lasting for an unusually long period, from 2020 to 2022. A cautious and nuanced approach to the matter would lead to the conclusion that both natural weather events and human-induced climate change are responsible for natural disasters as severe as those that occurred in Maracay and Las Tejerías.

The landslides in Venezuela and their aftermath highlight an often overlooked phenomenon that links climate change and the current climate emergency with political risk and security threats. In particular, there are several ways through which climate change can operate as a threat multiplier. One of them is the emergence of climate migrants and, subsequently, climate refugees, which involve migration, displacements, and mass movements of people as a by-product of climate-related disasters. 

Data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) shows that the number of people displaced by such disasters since 2010 amounts to 21.5 million worldwide, indicating that this is an urgent issue. Furthermore, Venezuela is currently facing a major migrant and refugee crisis: more than 7 million have been displaced from their homes as a consequence of critical political, economic, security, and social conditions. According to USA for UNHCR, “rampant violence, inflation, gang-warfare, soaring crime rates as well as shortages of food, medicine, and essential services have forced millions to seek refuge in neighboring countries and beyond”, resulting in an 8,000% increase in the number of Venezuelan refugees since 2014. 

In this context, climate change-related disasters and severe weather conditions are likely to have a twofold negative impact on Venezuela’s current state of affairs. Firstly, these events have the potential to significantly increase the number of migrants, especially internally displaced populations. As mentioned, on this occasion alone, more than a thousand families have partially or totally lost their homes and have therefore been forced to relocate, sometimes even abandoning the area completely. Secondly, such weather conditions worsen the already vulnerable and highly exposed situation of the groups that have been displaced or are migrating due to other concerns, be they political, economic, or otherwise. Whether living under precarious conditions as internally displaced populations or migrating to neighbouring countries to formally leave Venezuela, there is an increased risk of serious injuries, illness, and even death due to extreme weather events.

Beyond the direct consequences affecting the safety of displaced populations, other issues are likely to arise. As seen in several cases in Western Europe, a sharp increase in foreign migrant and refugee flows can negatively impact the political landscape of host countries, by fostering political polarisation and facilitating the rise of far-right politicians. The social trends underlying such political developments contribute to the destabilising potential of refugee crises, manifesting in the adoption of reactionary discourses and hate speech, the regular occurrence of episodes of harassment and discrimination, and the rise of hate crimes. In this context, it is worth noting that large migrant influxes and refugee crises are considered to aggravate and expose already existing problems in a country, rather than creating them directly. By potentially increasing the number of displaced people and deteriorating the livelihoods and living conditions of migrants, climate change intensifies political risk in this sense, as it does in many other ways. 

Particularly, the recent landslides in Venezuela and the subsequent displacement of people are of great concern given that the country is already experiencing an acute refugee crisis. The 2022 Refugee and Migrant Needs Analysis (RMNA) published by the Interagency Coordination Platform for Refugees and Migrants (R4V) suggests that, of the 7.1 million Venezuelan refugees aforementioned, 4.3 million face difficulties in accessing food, housing, and stable employment. In other words, more than half of the refugees and migrants from Venezuela struggle to access basic services in Latin America and the Caribbean, making it “difficult for many to rebuild their lives and integrate into host societies.” While Colombia has received the largest number of Venezuelans (1.8 million), Peru, Ecuador, Chile, and the United States have also taken in large numbers of refugees. These countries, as well as others in the region, are already facing their own socio-economic and security challenges, mostly related to growing inequalities, unemployment, and soaring crime rates. Thus, a larger inflow of migrants due to difficult climatic conditions is likely to exacerbate existing social tensions in the receiving countries. In 2018, the Colombian government expelled 18 Venezuelan migrants from refugee camps after some caused unrest by fighting over food and others stole from a van. Examples like this feed into the “overall rising levels of xenophobia and discrimination [which] continue to pose barriers to refugees’ and migrants’ access to rights and services, influencing overall social cohesion in host communities”, as stated in the RMNA. Additionally, even though the Venezuelan economy is now showing signs of slow but steady recovery, difficult living conditions and food shortage persist. Such violent episodes are also likely to occur among internally displaced groups. 

Immediate and timely response from the local and national authorities is necessary, but not sufficient. Further critical scrutiny of the effects of climate change becomes decisive, including an assessment of the specific manifestation of climate change in each regional context as extreme weather events and an evaluation of how structural and/or systemic deficiencies might make local populations vulnerable to them. Even more pressing is the formulation of an evidence-based strategy to tackle the already well-known contributing factors to climate change, on the one hand, and to reduce the risk posed by the resulting severe weather conditions, on the other.