Violent protests, marked by calls for dismantling state-controlled modesty laws, continue in Iran following the arrest and subsequent death of Mahsa Amini last week. 22-year-old Mahsa Amini was travelling with her family from the northwestern Kurdistan province to Tehran when she was detained on 13 September for what police alleged to be ‘immodest clothing.’ Amini died three days later, on 16 September, due to what state authorities claim was a heart attack in their ‘guidance centres’ - the infamous re-education centres where detainees are taught compliance with Iranian law on female clothing. Her family rejects this claim, saying she had no heart problems that could have led to cardiac arrest. A source from the hospital where Amini died claims that she was transferred to the hospital only two hours after her arrest, where hospital staff found her lungs filled with blood and multiple blows to the head. In a Sunday interview with BBC Persian, Amini’s father Amjad Amini said he was barred from viewing her body by hospital authorities, and that Mahsa’s younger brother Kiarash had been told she was beaten by the police, in what Amjad Amini called a government cover-up. 

Almost immediately after the funeral and burial of Mahsa Amini, numerous protests began in Iran decrying the infamous morality police and the Islamic Republic’s compulsory dress laws. The morality police, officially called the Gasht-e Ershad, are tasked with enforcing the dress code as laid out in Iranian law. It is the Gasht-e Ershad that arbitrarily detained Masha Amini, allegedly over just a few strands of loose hair out of her hijab. While claiming to enforce a strict dress code for all, the force has been notorious for its targeting of women who do not adhere to modest dressing norms and a near-full coverage of hair – what the Islamic Republic has called targeting ‘bad hijab’. The process of detainment by the Gasht-e Ershad is frequently a traumatic experience, where women are treated like criminals and effectively whisked off the streets. 

The protests have since escalated, becoming deadly and far-reaching across Iran and the world. As of Thursday, at least 9 have been killed in protests across Iran, although Iranian state broadcasts put the number at 26. Protests are being held in 90 towns and cities across Iran, in which many are ripping off and burning their hijabs, calling for women’s freedom and down with the compulsory dress laws, and for the ‘death of the dictator’, referring to the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. A viral trend of women cutting their hair in support of the protests has swept across the globe, becoming popular on Instagram and TikTok. As protestors clashed with riot police firing bullets, tear gas, and water cannons, the Islamic Republic shut off internet access in its entirety on Wednesday, with blackouts continuing into Thursday as popular media sites Instagram and WhatsApp, key tools for spreading information out of Iran, continued to be down. Iranian officials have confirmed the blackouts as a method to control the protests. In addition, several pro-government protests began on Friday, 23 September in several cities, with some chanting for the execution of the ‘rioters’. In a widely critiqued statement, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi called for an investigation into Amini’s death, while pointing to the double standards from the West in reference to the missing and murdered Indigenous women in Canada. It is important to note that Raisi made the statement on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, the leader’s first appearance at the General Assembly since taking office last year. 

Condemnation against the Islamic Republic and the Gasht-e Ershad have emerged across the globe, from state leaders to human rights groups. In his speech at the UN General Assembly, United States President Joe Biden showed support for the protests in Iran. At the same time, the Treasury Department pressed sanctions on the Gasht-e Ershad, while easing sanctions on internet sanctions in Iran, in hopes to allow information to move more freely in light of nationwide blackouts. Acting UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Nada Al-Nashif has called for an independent investigation, while the pro-Kurdish HDP party in Türkiye has applauded the resistance by protestors. Amnesty International has called for the world to take action in support of the protests. 

While extremely significant, these mass mobilisations within Iran are not new. After fuel prices were raised in November of 2019, massive nationwide protests were quelled with unprecedented use of force by the Islamic Republic – Amnesty International estimates 321 men, women, and children were killed by state forces in the protests. Protests saw around 20 killed by rising prices in January 2018, which were quickly followed by the ‘Girls of Revolution Street’ protests in solidarity with Vida Movahed who removed her hijab in an act of civil disobedience in December 2017. In 2019, Sahar Khodayri dressed up as a man to sneak into a stadium and watch a men’s soccer match. Upon her arrest and learning that she could face up to 6 months in prison, she lit herself on fire in protest and died. In November of 2021, water shortage protests prompted the arrest of 67 in similar violent crackdowns. The saturation of state-led suppression in the past five years is a reason to concern for the future of the current mobilisation. 

However, the protests today have new features to them – notably a recognition of Mahsa Amini’s Kurdish identity. Her Kurdish name is Jina, and many activists are urging the use of her Kurdish name in protest of the Islamic Republic’s refusal to acknowledge Kurdish names that reference Kurdish history or places. Kurdish media have referred to Amini solely by her Kurdish name, and former President of Iraqi Kurdistan Masoud Barzani has offered his condolences to Amini’s family. Amini’s killing and subsequent protests are highlighting the struggles Kurdish people face within Iran. Hengaw Organisation for Human Rights, an NGO based in Iran’s Kurdistan province, has reported that dozens of activists in the province have been called and threatened with arrest by Iranian authorities in an attempt to dispel continued protests. Figures in Turkiye’s pro-Kurdish HDP party, including former head Selahattin Demirtaş and former mayor Selçuk Mızraklı, both in prison, have shaved their heads in solidarity. The emerging regional solidarity based on Kurdish identity is perceived as a threat by the Islamic Republic, which explains its focus on suppressing activist organising in the Kurdistan province. 

Simultaneously with the violent protests and global outrage, Iran held military parades across the country on Thursday in commemoration of the anniversary of the Iran-Iraq War, what the Islamic Republic calls Sacred Defence Week. During the parade in Tehran, the Iranian Armed Forces revealed a new surface-to-surface missile, dubbed Rezvan, that has a range of 1,400 km. The medium-range ballistic missile can travel up to 8 times the speed of sound, according to Major General Hossein Salami, Chief Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard. The introduction of a regional missile seems like an attempt to divert the public and media’s attention from the protests and enhance nationalistic feelings. 

What is the future of the protests over Mahsa Amini’s death? It looks unpromising. 

Domestically, the protests are unlikely to create much change. Ayatollah Khamenei is 83 years old and will not be moved to modify or alter any element of Iran’s interpretation of Islamic law in response to the protests. As he enters the last stages of his life, Khamenei is looking to strengthen the core of the Islamic Republic and preserve his legacy for his predecessors. Even though studies are finding that increasing numbers of Iranians are opposed to compulsory modesty laws, the legal norm will likely stay the same. Furthermore, violent repression of the protests can be expected to intensify as Iranian President Raisi returns from the UN General Assembly in New York. While under the scrutiny of international leaders as President Raisi makes his first appearance at the General Assembly, an extreme crackdown similar to the 2019 one which saw over 300 killed would spell a diplomatic disaster for the Islamic Republic. The next few days are crucial as Raisi begins his journey back to Iran, and more widespread internet blockages would not be surprising. While the emergence of solidarity protests globally and on social media platforms is unique to these protests, ultimately the events of the past week are likely to continue the long list of bloody repressions perpetrated by the Islamic Republic in recent history. 

Regionally, the protests put Iran in a challenging position. Amini’s Kurdish background has already mobilised Kurdish party leaders and activists across the region, particularly from Iraq and Türkiye. Should Iran continue its active repression and targeting of activists – particularly in the Kurdistan province – further regional mobilisation based on Kurdish ethnic solidarities can be expected. While Kurdish parties within Türkiye and Iraq are unlikely to influence national politics that would impact Iran’s diplomatic relations with the states, the potential for grassroots resistance to the Islamic Republic is high. For the Kurdish community within Iran, the death of Amini could likely catalyse further protests in the Kurdistan province targeting Iran’s history of conflict with the Kurds. However, the significant Iranian military apparatuses in the northwest province have a history of quelling Kurdish political movements and military rebellions, so any potential protests are more than likely to be shut down with ease. 

The introduction of the Rezvan drone at the 42nd anniversary of the Iran-Iraq War on Thursday is a coincidence that gives few distractions to the significance of the protests. Rezvan’s 1,400 km capacity is a primary threat to Israel – as the Israeli press has already noted the ability for the missile to be launched from Iraq or Syria. The introduction of the missile can also be interpreted as a show of military strength in light of an escalation in violence between Azerbaijan and Armenia, in which Iran wants to prioritise the stability of its border with both nations. Overall, however, the missile is unlikely to contribute significantly to any distraction tactics that might be underlying the seeming coincidence. 

Internationally, the protests will cause an increased condemnation of the Islamic Republic from global leaders. While many have voiced their opinions already at the UN General Assembly, more criticism is sure to arise as protests continue – especially if violent repression intensifies as Raisi returns to Iran. The protests are also likely to add further tumult to an already unstable negotiating table for an updated Iran nuclear deal. President Raisi dedicated part of his General Assembly speech to supporting a revised deal, though critiqued the American counterparts for their willingness to seriously contribute to a deal. As international dissent grows against Raisi’s handling of the protests, any chance of a new deal will become near dormant as diplomatic jabs continue from across the negotiating table. However, it is crucial to watch for renewed calls for sanctions against the Islamic Republic. US President Biden’s updating of technology sanctions and the imposition of sanctions on the Gasht-e Ershad highlights the ease by which the US is willing to further its sanctions regime. The effectiveness of sanctions in promoting political change within Iran has come to the forefront with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as many leaders and human rights organisations now realise that the sanctions regime against Iran continues to harm the most marginalised. At the international level, a call for sanctioning the Islamic Republic further should be seriously cautioned. While a relatively easy diplomatic and economic way of pressuring Iran, adding sanctions will not benefit those protesting. 

As people across the globe mobilise in support of Iranian protesters and as President Raisi returns to Iran, the future of the protests remains in flux, dictated by a combination of factors all working against the current movement.