On the 20th of July 2023, the Government of India took a significant step to address its domestic food security concerns by imposing a prohibition on the export of non-Basmati white rice, including both semi and wholly-milled varieties. This assertive play comes amidst a pressing need to ensure an adequate food supply within the nation.

A press release from the Ministry of Consumer Affairs states that it was implemented to “ensure adequate availability” and “allay the rise in prices in the domestic market.” The late arrival of monsoon rains forecasted a potential shortage. Since then, however, there have been heavy showers leading to extreme flooding in key rice-growing areas in North India,  ultimately destroying crop output. This has translated to a 14-15% domestic price rise of rice in the month of March itself. Furthermore, its stock-to-use ratio (a standardised ratio that measures stocks and gives insight into food security) will drop to its lowest point in 5 years. Combined with the high price of tomatoes (increased 340% year-to-date), the harsh reality of food insecurity has started to set in. The export ban is supposedly a strategic endeavour to showcase the current Prime Minister, Mr Modi’s prioritisation of food security before the upcoming union elections in 2024.  This move can be woven into the rise of resource nationalism, examined more closely by Danial Ahmed in a previous report, where he points towards the possible movement to soft commodities. In this context, Reuters has reported that contracts worth an estimated $1 billion could be at risk, indicating the certainty of this shift.

With the already fragile global food market struggling through the repercussions of the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, analysts are concerned about the anticipated impact of this ban. India is the largest rice exporter globally, accounting for a staggering 40% of the rice trade with exports totalling 22.2 million tons. The country’s rice exports also surpass the combined total of the next four largest rice-exporting nations, which will not be able to meet the supply deficit from this ban, exacerbating the existing global food shortage crisis and putting additional pressure on food prices worldwide.

While the ongoing conflict in Ukraine disrupts agricultural production and exports, recently seen with Russia backing out of the UN brokered Black Seas grain deal, the sudden spike in basmati rice demand adds another layer of complexity to the global food insecurity puzzle. Furthermore, China, the largest rice producer in the world, but also the biggest grain importer, has had an abysmal monsoon with its soil moisture levels of the rice growing regions at a very low level, which will lead them to demand more rice for import due to a domestic shortage. This is due to the El Nino Phenomenon, which describes unusually warm waters in the Pacific Ocean impacting wind movement and therefore rainfall and will have more significant effects in the coming months.  The amalgamation of geopolitical tensions and climate-induced agricultural crises poses a grave threat to food availability and affordability worldwide. 

India’s rice ban also unequally targets the most vulnerable with top importers of Indian non-basmati rice including Benin, Bangladesh, Angola, Cameroon, Djibouti, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Kenya, and Nepal: all developing nations with poor historical food security trends. Considering historical evidence of India’s ban on wheat export and the wording of the notification, it might still continue to allow the sale of non-basmati rice to its neighbours. In this case, the market impact may be limited. However, considering the current government’s hardline posture, a hard ban with large implications for dependent countries is a possibility.

That said, developed countries do not have it easy either; the large Indian diaspora (close to 18 million people) is allegedly panic buying Basmati rice as well, further deepening disparities in the global food shortage. In the United States especially, posts on Twitter(X) have shown large crowds and empty rice shelves, with some stores implementing a ‘Only 1 rice bag per family’ policy. This has exponentially increased Basmati rice prices in the US with a 9kg bag of rice selling at $27. The community fears a potential ban on Basmati Rice as well. 

However, Asian Rice Exporting Nations have been able to profit from this supply deficit; Thailand and Vietnam have both experienced a 5% rise in price since the ban. The price of Vietnam’s rice has surpassed its highest level since 2011 and Thailand’s is at a 2-year high. 

In conclusion, India's decision to impose a ban on the export of non-Basmati white rice marks a significant move with far-reaching implications. Driven by the urgency to secure its domestic food security needs, the government's action reflects its commitment to prioritising the well-being of its citizens amidst the challenges posed by climate-induced crises. It truly shows how in today’s world, all politics are climate politics