On January 12, 2023, the United States House of Representatives passed Bill H.R. 8488, titled the "Protecting America's Strategic Petroleum Reserve from China Act." If enacted, the legislation would prevent the Secretary of Energy from exporting the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) “to any entity under the ownership, control, or influence of the Chinese Communist Party”.

The bill received approval with 331 favourable votes and is currently awaiting deliberation by the Senate ever since. The Upper House can either reject or approve the bill and if approved, it would proceed to the President for consideration. This spotlight attempts to clarify the potential impacts on China (if any) in case the Act ever becomes law and restricts its access to imported SPR reserves.

The road ahead on Capitol Hill

The Bill had significant bipartisan support in the Lower House to secure a comfortable majority, with all the 218 present Republicans and about half (113) of present Democrats voting “yes”. Analyst Benjamin Salisbury from Height Capital Markets argues that approval in the Senate might not be so smooth as the Upper House is controlled by Democrats, but it’s still feasible under “tough compromises” - and under greater pressure from voters for a stronger stance against China. The greatest obstacle, however, might arise from the President's Office

President Joe Biden has been depleting the SPRs at an unprecedentedly faster pace to manage oil prices driven up by the war in Ukraine. However, some argue that the move is more about political concerns involved in alleviating inflationary pressures on fuel ahead of an election year.  Since the SPRs are only meant to be used in times of great uncertainty and with due restraint - only enough to secure minimal levels of energetic security - critics point out that the President might be compromising the country’s long-term energetic security for short-term political gains. From this point of view, the Executive would hardly sanction a bill that would constrain its influence on oil markets.

But even in a scenario where the Act is approved by both the Legislative and Executive branches, current data suggests that its effects on China’s energy markets are likely to be minimal.

How will China be impacted?
China is the world’s second-largest consumer of crude oil in total volume, and the commodity accounts for roughly 20% of the country’s total energy generation. This figure is roughly comparable to other large emerging economies like India (23%) and Russia (19%). Nevertheless, China represented only one-fifth of the total foreign purchases of SPR released in 2022, while the US itself accounts for only 2% of China’s total crude imports.

As evident from the chart above, China depends more on oil producers in the Middle East and Eurasia and has concentrated its diplomatic efforts accordingly. It has expanded economic and financial ties with Saudi Arabia, mediated an agreement with Iran, and continues to purchase Russian oil in large quantities. These efforts are likely to provide China with greater resilience against disturbances that may affect energy supplies and limit the US' ability to manipulate oil markets to harm the Chinese economy. Rather than a practical purpose, the act’s eventual approval would likely serve a rhetorical one: Washington is taking a tougher stance against Beijing.