Background

Earlier this year, Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, and Slovakia, sought unilateral grain import bans from Ukraine, citing the threats that cheaper grain prices were hindering the business and livelihoods of their domestic farmers and agricultural producers. These measures raised concerns from other EU member states, who saw these actions as abandoning a war-torn Ukraine in its hour of need. In April, however, Poland and the other EU member states agreed to lift the ban on Ukrainian imports after a deal was reached by the European Commission to “impose temporary curbs” on Ukrainian grain imports. The measures also covered Romania, who shared the same concerns as the other member states, but never took unilateral action. The measures included curbs on wheat, maize, oilseed, and sunflower, while the commission would investigate whether to extend the curbs to other commodities such as eggs and meat. All 5 countries would also receive 100m Euros from the EU to compensate farmers.

Pressure of Extension

On July 19, Poland, along with Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania, asked the EU to “extend trade curbs on Ukrainian grain amid concerns that Russia’s blockage of Black Sea shipments could put further pressure on their domestic markets.” Poland has been one of the strongest western supporters for Ukraine in its war against Russia, leading calls for solidarity as well as backing the removal of tariffs on Ukrainian foods. However, Poland is facing a highly contested election later this year, where the current right-wing government will depend on the support of farmers, a “cornerstone of its electorate”. There is likely to be strong resistance against an extension among EU member states, as many of these countries have been hit hard from sanctions on Russia and will see this as Poland and the others looking for special treatment. Diplomats from the EU have expressed their dissatisfaction with the extension, while Polish Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, has warned Brussels that the 5 countries will extend the band themselves if the EU does not comply, stating “we will be tough, determined and we will certainty defend the Polish farmers.” Last week, Russia ended its Black Sea grain deal. This places more pressure on Ukraine to identify other ways to export their grain. Western leaders have expressed that the end of the deal could exacerbate food insecurity in the global south.

What’s at Stake? 

Regarding whether or not the extension will be approved, there are three important points at stake: The upcoming Fall elections in Poland and Slovakia, denunciation from Ukraine and other EU member countries, and the livelihood of farmers in the Central European region. The import bans, along with Russia’s exit from the Black Sea Deal, have put the livelihoods of Ukrainian farmers in jeopardy. As one farmer stated, “We have some reserves so we can survive for a month or so, but if we can’t sell it’s going to be a disaster.” After 17 months of conflict in Ukraine, which has resulted in economic hardship for the country, farmers would feel the brunt of the extension. On the other hand, an end to the extension would cause negative repercussions to the farmers of the 5 countries who continue to push for the extension of the ban. Poland and Slovakia are scheduled to hold parliamentary elections later this year, with both ruling parties of each country greatly needing the support of their rural farmers. Poland’s Law and Justice Party (PiS) is campaigning for a third consecutive term in power, and the party must secure the votes of Polish farmers if they want to secure a win in the parliamentary elections. A failure to extend a ban on grains from Ukraine could cost the PiS the votes needed to secure their desired win. Other EU member states have become increasingly angry at the 5 countries looking to extend the import ban. German agricultural minister, Cem Özdemir, was angered that the 5 countries wanted to extend the import bans, despite getting €100 million in EU money to compensate their domestic farmers, stating “It’s not acceptable that states receive funds from Brussels as a form of mitigation, and then still close their borders''. Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy commented that "Any extension of the restrictions is absolutely unacceptable and outright non-European. Europe has the institutional capacity to act more rationally than to close a border for a particular product.” At a crucial time for European leaders to continue their unified support for Ukraine, there is little room for division and disagreements, an eventuality that would play into Moscow’s hand. 

Current and Likely Market Response

Before the import ban, it was a difficult task for Ukraine to export grain to traditional markets, in Africa and elsewhere, because of the high cost of transportation. As a result, much of the grain from Ukraine has remained in bordering countries, which initially fueled the anger from the 5 EU countries. On top of that, the initial extension of the Black Sea grain deal by Russia and Turkey reduced the demand for land routes that were set up by the EU for transporting grain. Recently, prices have increased because of Russia’s exit from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and from Russian attacks on Ukrainian shipping facilities. As a result, wheat prices soared to a five-month high, and a 2.6% increase in wheat futures trading in Chicago. In recent months, Ukrainian exports of maize, wheat, and barley to the EU have decreased because of the ban.

Though global grain supplies and markets have been sufficient, owing to plentiful harvests in Brazil and Australia, the grain export shortages from Ukraine are likely to create volatility in the price of grain. With few options for exporters, agricultural analyst Michael Magdovitz, says that Ukrainian farmers are likely to place some of their harvest into storage. This will decrease their ability to prepare for next year’s harvest, limiting Ukrainian grain production. Analysts also predict that Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal could benefit the Russian economy, as a major grain exporter, as it is expected to hit a record high harvest this year. This allows Russia to provide free grain to African countries, who were formerly relying on grain exports from Ukraine. 

In 2014, a study authored by Fellman, Helaine and Nekhay, titled Harvest failures, temporary export restrictions and global food security: the example of limited grain exports from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, revealed that for countries like Ukraine, who export large amounts of grain, “the introduction of export restrictions could potentially result in decreases of domestic consumer prices to a level even below a situation with normal weather conditions.” The same study also discussed the 2008 export restrictions which resulted in Ukrainian wheat prices decreasing to 30% “below the world market price” and showed signs of “slower growth rate of domestic feed and milling wheat prices in the first half of the marketing year 2010/2011.” Though it might be difficult to compare previous export restrictions to the current import ban on Ukrainian grains, an extension of the ban would clearly spell long term trouble for Ukrainian grain farmers.