Nearly four months have passed since the conflict in Sudan erupted into destruction and utter chaos. I have become heavily invested and impacted by the stories that have surfaced from this tragedy in order to compose a collection of ongoing events and provide my analysis. While this horrific war shows no end in sight, this will unfortunately be my last brief on Sudan. My time as the Research Director of Africa Watch is coming to an end as I move on to a great opportunity to work in Somalia to assist the government in their security transition. While I am incredibly grateful for my time at London Politica and am excited about my new position, I am heartbroken that my last coverage of the Sudan conflict is not due to the cessation of war. I am sincerely thankful for those who have shared information with me, the people and institutions who have read and used my work, and, of course, for my partner - Research Director Ethan Dincer.

Current Figures

• Over 3,000 killed and 6,000 wounded

• Total displaced: 4,371,236

• IOM: 3,282,303 IDPs

• UNHCR: Over 901,791 externally displaced

• Chad: 358,817 (Sudanese refugees: 358,817)

• Egypt: 279,230 (Sudanese refugees: 272,000; Other refugees: 7,230)

• South Sudan: 214,008 (Sudanese refugees: 14,811; Other refugees: 3,423; Refugee returnees: 195,774)

• Ethiopia: 31,955 (Sudanese refugees: 21,867; Other refugees: 9,697; Refugee returnees: 391)

• CAR: 17,781 (Sudanese refugees: 13,080, Refugee returnees: 4,701)

Heavy Bombardments as Bodies Rot and Spread Disease

The heaviest fighting since the war began in April is currently bombarding Omdurman, a district of Khartoum, and has resulted in at least 13 killed on Tuesday. Thousands in the area have been cut off from water and electricity, leaving civilians with no ability to communicate. “The shelling is part of an attempt to try to take a bridge across the Nile used by the paramilitary force to bring reinforcements and weapons from Omdurman to the other two cities, Bahri and Khartoum, which make up the wider capital.” Sudanese civilian Mohamed Usher living in Khartoum stated, “Neither side is able to win outright and what we hear them say in the media is the opposite of what’s happening on the ground. What’s left in Khartoum for them to win anyway? The institutions are destroyed, the universities, the markets are all destroyed.”

More than 80% of hospitals in Sudan are now out of service. Doctors Without Borders (MSF) has warned that they may pull their support to one of the last operating hospitals in the country. The possible suspension is due to health staff not receiving visas that have been in process for over eight weeks. Aid worker visas are close to expiring and are urgently needed in order to ensure their safe passage. "Without visas being urgently granted by the Sudanese authorities, Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) may soon be forced to withdraw our support to the Turkish Hospital in Khartoum,” MSF stated on Wednesday. MSF has treated over 3,800 patients just between mid-June and the end of July.

The understandable suspension comes at a critical time as morgues in Khartoum have reached a ‘breaking point’ as numbers of the dead overwhelm facilities that do not have the ability to refrigerate the bodies due to power outages. Thousands of bodies piled in the streets of Khartoum have begun to rot, invoking serious concerns from Save the Children. The organisation stated, “A horrifying combination of rising numbers of corpses, severe water shortages, non-functioning hygiene and sanitation services, and lack of water treatment options are prompting fears of a cholera outbreak in the city.” Sudanese medics have labelled the situation an “environmental catastrophe.” Over 300, primarily children under the age of 5, have died from measles and malnutrition in just two months, between May 17th and July 17th. According to UNICEF, a child is injured or killed every hour in Sudan. 

Hacking Group ‘Anonymous Sudan’ Threatens Foreign Nations Involved in Sudan

Anonymous Sudan posted a video statement on Tuesday, threatening countries that have been involved in Sudan’s ongoing conflict. “Any country that tries to act unfriendly and in a harmful manner against Sudan and attempting to meddle into our internal affairs will be targeted very harshly. We will target the critical infrastructure that will cost them millions upon millions.” Anonymous Sudan described that such threats would be conducted “violently,” referencing the cyber attack they committed on Kenya’s government last month due to officials’ statements that doubted the sovereignty of Sudan’s government. The latest threats are believed to be aimed at the UK, EU, and the US who have imposed sanctions on the SAF and RSF. 

Anonymous Sudan identifies itself as a ‘hacktivist’ group and focuses cyber attacks out of Africa “on behalf of oppressed Muslims worldwide.” Intelligence experts believe that the group actually operates in Russia and is aimed at spreading Kremlin interests. According to Mattias Wåhlén, a threat intelligence expert at Truesec, “Anonymous Sudan is a Russian information operation that aims to use its Islamic credentials to be an advocate for closer cooperation between Russia and the Islamic world – always claiming that Russia is the Muslims’ friend. This makes them a useful proxy.” Anonymous Sudan denies claims that it is a Russian operation, yet the original Anonymous collective reportedly quickly distanced themselves from Anonymous Sudan when it “surfaced as a Russian-speaking Telegram channel in mid-January of this year.” Additionally, the geolocation of the Telegram group has been traced to Russia.

“Despite Israel’s support for Ukraine during its war with Russia, the group’s massive attacks on Israeli victims during OpIsrael last April, and the ongoing attacks that continue to this day, do not appear to solely serve pro-Russian interests.” According to a Cyberint report published Wednesday, Anonymous Sudan’s agenda is likely tied to an Iranian-Russian collaboration. Such motives align with Russia’s aim to insert itself into the Islamic world. Interestingly, Anonymous Sudan has repeatedly tweeted statistics provided by UNHCR, despite advertising itself as anti-West and anti-foreign intervention. 

Allan Liska, an intelligence analyst at Recorded Future, states that Anonymous Sudan’s hacking approach is a ‘scattergun’ technique, targeting anything and hoping “something sticks”. Additionally, some cyber experts believe that Anonymous Sudan is able to carry out successful attacks due to collaboration with other groups who have effective capabilities. However, some analysts state that Anonymous Sudan’s campaigns are successful in that they put in more time in developing attacks for bigger payoffs. According to head of security research at Orange Cyberdefense Charl van der Walt, Anonymous Sudan has acquired the “technical knowledge on how to execute such a non-trivial attack, and they seem to know how to be effective against one of the biggest cloud infrastructure giants such as Microsoft. From a technical point of view, the attackers are good or have access to resources that they can direct to act on their behalf. This puts them in a league above your average hacker collective.” In addition to Microsoft, Anonymous Sudan has had the ability to attack Scandinavian airlines, Twitter, Paypal, and Bank of America. 

Tunisia Expels Migrants and Refugees

Those who have been able to flee Sudan and make it all the way to Tunisia are being arrested by authorities and then expelled in the desert near the Libyan border. A group of 15 Africans, including a pregnant woman, were dumped in the middle of nowhere after being arrested and were forced to walk for four hours before being discovered and rescued by Libyan border patrol. According to reports, this is not an isolated incident. Another group of migrants reported that Tunisian police beat the men in the group, took everyone’s cell phones, and left them in the desert. IOM states that approximately 300 people have been assisted by UN agencies at a Libyan facility in Alasaa, where some of these groups have been found. While the Tunisian government has rejected these reports, with President Kais Saied stating that such claims are to discredit the country, Libya has reported discovering bodies in the desert. “Thousands of migrants who had been living in Tunisia have tried to leave for Europe this year after President Saied announced a crackdown on them in February, saying their presence was part of a plot to change Tunisia's demographic makeup.” The African Union has denounced Saied’s anti-migrant rhetoric as “racialised language”, which resulted in migrants facing attacks. Rights groups have criticised the EU for providing Tunisia with €100 million to combat people smuggling despite such human rights abuse reports. 

Looking Forward

The conflict of Sudan has developed into a convoluted and chaotic catastrophe in a short period of time. With multiple failed truces and no developments in negotiations as of late, the threat of the situation becoming a protracted war seems inevitable. Should the civil war continue on its current trajectory, several risk factors have the potential to develop and heighten. Spillover appears to be imminent and Sudan’s neighbours will become even further strained as they struggle to assist their own citizens, let alone the hundreds of thousands that continue to cross borders. 

While it is unlikely that Egypt will experience any conflict spillover into their territory, given their location to the north and their better handling of border control, Egypt may very well become a key player in the war. It is probable that Egypt has continued to support their warring side, the SAF, since the war began in April. But should the conflict heighten and expand, severely impacting neighbours and the region, Egypt will likely take a less subtle approach. Becoming heavily entrenched in Sudan’s conflict would no doubt create tensions between Egypt and the US, Saudi Arabia, and Ethiopia. However, as Wagner exits Ukraine and focuses its attention on Africa, the West may be forced into siding with the SAF and its supporters in order to counter Russian interest in the country and throughout Africa. Wagner is likely to become a major factor in the Sudan conflict, as it continues supplying the RSF with weaponry and may have their own boots on the ground soon in order to protect their gold mining interests. Additionally, Wagner will be a key component in the Kremlin’s tactic of manipulating Africans that they are a better alternative than the West and are a friend to the muslim community, similarly to Anonymous Sudan’s operations. With Islamic extremists in the country, Russia may do well on this endeavour. 

Terrorism becoming further embedded in Sudan is also a significant risk. Sudan’s history of harbouring terrorists and the security vacuum create an appealing environment for terrorism groups. Sudan has great potential to be used as a base for terrorism activity by al Qaeda or others due to its location. Porous borders with neighbouring countries which have ongoing terrorist activity, such as Chad and Libya, make Sudan a prominent location, especially as security throughout the Sahel continues to deteriorate from coups. 

Additional concerns arise regarding the security vacuum when considering the whereabouts of Omar al-Bashir are still unknown. It is incredibly worrying that no information about Bashir has surfaced over the last few months. The SAF has yet to provide proof that Bashir is in their custody and the silence surrounding this brings to question if Bashir and his supporters are planning some sort of power grab. Bashir-era leaders are currently regaining influence in Sudan as they stoke “tribalism to campaign for the army and themselves”. Should they gain enough influence and power as they take advantage of the chaos, it would not be surprising to see Bashir resurface; possibly as a free man.

Peace appears to be a long road ahead for Sudan. Perhaps the international community and those involved in any future negotiations should take a hard look at past peace talks and examine what can be done better during this hiatus. The past few years of attempting to transition the government of Sudan to its people has been full of mistakes while completely omitting the civil society that was supposed to be involved and put in charge. Past outcomes of peace negotiations have negated and dismissed the most vulnerable populations. As a second genocide has commenced in Darfur in less than three years since the end of the first, sexual violence in Sudan has reached a “sickening” level. The Bosnian war, Sierra Leone, and Sudan’s Darfur are prime examples of horrific instances of rape used as a weapon of war, where the international community has chosen to forget the women and children who were targeted. Decades later, survivors of these and other wars are still suffering from trauma and physical ailments with justice rarely seen. 

While it is understandable for concessions to be made in order to bring a cessation of hostilities, it dismisses the victims of sexual violence and brings forth a sad truth: women bear the brunt during conflict and continue doing so afterwards in order bring an end to war. Women, who are often not even at the table of negotiations, endure the worst of humanity, are robbed of their voices, are denied justice, and are then forced to live amongst their tormentors. Civilians who have suffered trauma and war crimes are often left in poverty with little to no opportunities in demolished towns. Rehabilitation and reintegration efforts are focused on what to offer soldiers, the perpetrators of heinous crimes, while ignoring those who suffered the most. And yet, we define such agreements as successes. 

Peace must be reached but should not benefit the victor while punishing those who lost everything. Implementing agreements that negate accountability creates an environment of impunity and suffering for generations to come. International agencies and negotiators must rethink their efforts or else we will all be here again in another few years analysing Sudan’s problems. As the famous saying goes, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. The intractability of the Sudan civil war has no easy solution. But as we continue to witness the carnage unfold, let us hope that those in power utilise lessons from history in order to implement greater policies and produce real results that will leave Sudan in a better place than it is today.