The events on the 24th of June in Russia left many unanswered questions and signalled more to come. This article focuses on why the Chief of PWC Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, announced his “March for Justice” and discusses his relations with the main target of the rebellion - Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. While Prigozhin attempted to adjust his deteriorating position and gain more attention from the Russian military and political decision-makers, his failed "coup" greatly reduced its influence in Russia through the physical relocation of Prigozhin and most of the ‘Wagnerians’ to Belarus, consequently cutting off access to the Russian media field. Putin is currently seeking to preserve “Wagner” as a cohesive fighting force; however, he is striving to separate it from Prigozhin. Thus, aiming to prevent the destruction of Wagner, Prigozhin ultimately brought this process closer to reality.

What Is Special About Wagner in The Russian-Ukrainian War

PWC “Wagner” gradually gained its reputation in Russia amid the Russian-Ukrainian war in Eastern Ukraine (2014-2022), the war in Syria and the resultant presence in Africa. Their influence was augmented following the failure of the initial plans of the Russian leadership to defeat Ukraine in February 2022. During the summer of 2022, Wagner’s Chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, launched a successful recruitment campaign, and the number of Wagner mercenaries on the Ukrainian battlefield increased to approximately 50,000.

Exploiting its unique position outside the Russian law and military hierarchy, with independent access to the Russian information space, Prigozhin established a military system parallel to the Russian Armed Forces, evading the usual levels of accountability expected from conventional military units. This indicates that Prigozhin was unrestricted when making military decisions and planning Wagner operations, as stated in a former London Politica article by Olivia Gibson. Such a lack of coordination between Wagner and the Russian MOD could explain inconsistencies and mistakes on the frontline, thus further deteriorating the Russian war effort against Ukraine. Demonstrating a major issue for the MOD, as they are principally accountable for Russian war developments.

Additionally, Prigozhin’s enhanced popularity on social media (with his Telegram channel “Prigozhin's hat” or other Wagner-related channels) and publications belonging to his Patriot media holding have allowed him to promote himself freely and Wagner, whilst publicly criticising Russian military officials and their decisions/failures on the frontline. Indeed, there were registered cases when Prigozhin’s public activity contradicted the Kremlin’s official narratives about the course of the war, such as the security of the Russian Belgorod Oblast. Which substantially undermined the domestic trust in Russian political and military officials, especially among the more patriotic citizens of the country.

At the same time, PMC “Wagner” was not a fully independent military actor on the Ukrainian battlefield nor in its operation in Africa or Syria. Prigozhin and Wagner’s commanders were largely accountable to Vladimir Putin. Furthermore, Wagner’s mercenaries had been receiving exclusive provisions from the MOD. But when the Ministry could not keep supplying Wagner with the previous volumes and quality of arms and ammunition, Prigozhin started to manipulate the narrative.

Consequently, Wagner turned out to be a double-edged sword for Putin. On the one hand, the Russian president heavily relied on Wagner’s mercenaries on the front line in Ukraine, specifically Bakhmyt. On the other hand, as the practice showed, Prigozhin harmed Putin’s regime in the midst of war intensification.

A Brief History of Prigozhin-MOD Tensions

The conflict between Yevgeniy Prigozhin and the Russian MOD, namely Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov,  resulted in Prigozhin’s “March of Justice”. Prigozhin's clash with the Defence Ministry escalated in January 2023, particularly because of the change of the commander of the joint grouping in Ukraine when Valery Gerasimov replaced Sergey Surovikin. In addition, Prigozhin has been accusing the MOD of downplaying Wagner's role in Russian military achievements in Donbas.

For a while, a central point of confrontation was a lack of arms supply for PMC “Wagner”. In February 2023, Wagner complained about a shortage of arms and ammunition at the front, causing "hundreds" of soldiers to die daily. In early May, Prigozhin resorted to a radical approach on this ground and announced Wagner’s withdrawal from Bakhmut. The Ukrainian city of Bakhmut has played a strategic and more symbolic role for Ukrainian and Russian armies, as fierce fights have continued since August 2022.

The split between Prigozhin and Shoigu became more evident when in early June 2023, the Defence Minister issued an order requiring all formations that carry out combat missions to conclude a contract with the military by 1 July. This would have meant the end of Wagner’s autonomy on the Ukrainian battlefield and its overall weakening. Prigozhin announced that none of his soldiers would sign the contract and that Wagner would keep fulfilling the tasks assigned by Army General Surovikin (Gerasimov’s predecessor). Later, Prigozhin reported the shelling of Wagner's positions from the rear, suggesting that the command of the Ministry of Defence and the General Staff were behind or knew about these events.

23-24 June: Prigozhin Against Putin? Or Against Shoigu?

On the afternoon of 23 June, Prigozhin's press service published his half-hour speech in which he lashed out with personal criticism of Shoigu and dispelled the core narrative of Russian war propaganda towards Ukraine. Prigozhin’s rhetoric complied with his long-lasting tensions with the Russian MOD, particularly Sergei Shoigu. At the same time, Prigozhin tried to justify and indeed defend Putin, who, according to Wagner’s Chief, received reports that "did not correspond to reality in any way" because the MOD "thoroughly deceived him".

Later, Prigozhin revealed the purpose of the "march", which was to prevent the destruction of the PMC “Wagner” and to bring to justice those who "with their unprofessional actions committed a huge number of mistakes in the course of the SMO (ed. - special military operation)". Overall, Prigozhin claimed that the “march” aimed at demonstrating their protest, not to overthrow the country's government. Although the rebellion was not explicitly against Putin, the vast majority of foreign observers agree that Wagner’s “coup” publicly exposed the weakness of the Putin regime and even the start of its gradual ending.

Did Prigozhin achieve any of his goals?

Right after the termination of the rebellion, Russian President’s Spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that any cadre reshuffles in the Russian Defence Ministry were not the subject of negotiations, and Sergei Shoigu remained in his position as of July 15. Considering the failure of the “coup”, it was doubtful Putin would agree to these changes. Moreover, after circulating gossip around Gerasimov’s resignation, he publicly appeared during one of the meetings, refuting those speculations. 

Days after the “coup”, Vladimir Putin confirmed that Wagner received RUB 86 billion (around USD 954 million) from May 2022 to May 2023. Now budget expenditures might be directed to the needs of MOD. Besides, over 2,000 pieces of Wagner’s equipment have already been passed to the Russian Armed Forces, including hundreds of tanks, Grad and Uragan MLRSs, Pantsir SAMs, self-propelled artillery systems, armoured personnel carriers and other items. Russian Army also received over two and a half thousand tonnes of ammunition and about 20 thousand small arms. All equipment and weapons are being delivered to the rear areas for repair and combat preparation.

While Prigozhin intended to correct his shaken position, the failed “coup” provided a suitable opportunity for Putin and MOD to undermine a main internal competitor, the PWC “Wagner” in the hands of Yevgeny Prigozhin. Earlier, Prigozhin had enough capabilities and possibilities to harm MOD plans on the battlefield in Ukraine and inside Russia. As a result of the June 23-24 events, Wagner lost its reputation and support from Putin, and now the country is directing its power to eliminate Wagner’s autonomy and include it in the Russian military structure as a typical military unit.