International observers raise their doubts around the legitimacy of the Sierra Leonean elections. What was predicted to be one of the most closely contested democratic run-offs on the continent this year resulted in a controversial first-round win for the incumbent president, Julius Maada Bio. In Mali, the referendum seeking to change the constitution has been passed by an overwhelming majority and in the DRC, the opposition is refusing to take part in elections that they are already declaring fraudulent. 

SIERRA LEONE

Surprising first round win as opposition calls foul play

The official results saw incumbent president, Julius Maada Bio, receive 56% of the votes while his biggest rival, opposition leader Samura Kamara, obtained 41%. Pre-electoral analyses predicted that under free and fair conditions, the margin between the two candidates was likely to be much smaller and would almost certainly trigger a second round of voting. Sierra Leone has a high threshold of 55% for an election to be completed in the first round, which suggested that a second round was to be expected under fair electoral conditions. The opposition has called the election a “daylight robbery”. Kamara has highlighted that the electoral agents for his party were forbidden from authenticating the ballot counting process and has rejected the results, labelling them as illegitimate. 

National Election Watch, a coalition of civil society organisations, has published a statement expressing scepticism in relation to the accuracy of the official results. They have conducted their own calculations and came to the conclusion that the turnout was actually between 75-79%, rather than the official 83%, and that President Bio received between 48% and 53% of the electoral vote. According to their calculations, the opposition candidate should have received between around 44 - 49% of the votes. In each possible scenario, the organisation’s analysis suggests that the elections should have progressed into a second round. 

International agencies do not accept the results

This is a view shared by numerous international observers, who have undermined the integrity of the electoral process. They have called out “statistical inconsistencies” in the official results and have demanded for the electoral commission to publish disaggregated results per polling station.

The issues identified were discrepancies between the historic average volume of valid votes per polling state and the 2023 results. An unusually low number of invalid ballots and a strikingly high turnout in certain districts were additional occurrences which sparked distrust among observers. A number of countries and institutions, including the US and the EU, have published a joint statement expressing their concerns around the lack of transparency in the Sierra Leonean electoral process.

The country’s chief electoral commissioner Mohamed Kenewui Konneh, who has been accused by the opposition of being “the ruling party’s agent”, has informed that the disaggregated results will be published “in due course”. However, President Bio has already been sworn in for his second term in office, meaning that the disaggregated results are unlikely to change the outcome of the elections. 

The runoff to the elections has been dominated by violence

The elections have been dominated by civil unrest throughout the campaigning period. The week leading up to the elections has seen both sides of the political spectrum report cases of physical threats from followers of the opposing side. The All People’s Congress (APC) has claimed that one of its supporters has been shot dead by the police, a claim that has been denied by officials. The party also stated that another one of its supporters was killed by the security forces who were trying to disperse a crowd gathering around the APC headquarters in the capital. Simultaneously, members of the President’s SLPP party have also claimed that they have been assaulted by opponents during the campaign period. Taking into consideration the intensity of the political dispute in the run up to the elections, the streets of the Sierra Leonean capital remained relatively quiet after the results were published. 

MALI 

Malians have approved changes to the constitution

In Mali, the referendum seeking to make amendments to the constitution has been approved with 97% of the vote. The turnout was just below 40%. The military junta, which is currently serving as the country’s transition government, praised the results stating that it is a stepping stone in paving the way for elections in early next year and a return to civilian rule. 

Opponents have raised their concerns around the changes giving too much power to the president, while proponents have stated it would strengthen the democratic mechanisms of a currently weak state. There were a number of security incidents reported during the vote with gunmen entering voting centres and forcing voters to flee. Little voting took place in rebel-controlled northern regions. 

Under the new constitution, it will be the president who will “determine the policies of the nation”,  a right which was previously reserved for the government. The president will also be able to hire and fire the prime minister and cabinet members “and the government will be answerable to him and not to parliament, as is the case currently.” In an attempt to reduce corruption levels, politicians will have to declare their wealth. Other clauses would give amnesty to perpetrators of prior coups. 

The process of conducting the referendum was marked by a period of turmoil. There was a delay in the publication of the results due to violence against electoral authorities. Before the referendum, the ruling junta asked the UN peacekeeping mission to leave the country. This was done on the accusation of “espionage”, following a UN report which very strongly criticised the governing regime for killings and massacres taking place at the hands of Malian troops and their allies. 

DRC

Largest opposition party to boycott elections if conditions not met

The leader of the largest opposition party in DR Congo, Martin Fayulu, has declared that his party will not take part in the upcoming elections if the electoral procedures are not revised to fulfil democratic standards. According to Fayulu, the voter identification and registration processes are being carried out illegitimately and as a result are preparing for fraudulent elections. The politician, who came second in the last presidential elections in 2018, has stated that his party will not be fielding any candidates in the upcoming vote unless an external audit verifies the legitimacy of the current processes. The country’s electoral body, the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI), included international experts in its last review of the electoral list, who have deemed the electoral process as reliable. However, the US, EU, and other Western countries have claimed that the procedures have not been independent and transparent enough. 

The lead up to the elections, which will be taking place in December this year, have been dominated by tensions, anti-government demonstrations, and complaints from opposition candidates who have stated that they have been disadvantaged due to irregularities in the process. The country is also facing significant challenges in the eastern regions which are dominated by rebel groups. Registration in those areas has proven to be increasingly difficult and elections could become difficult to carry out. 

Conclusion

The elections in Sierra Leone were expected to be one of the most closely contested on the African continent. President Bio beat his biggest rival by a very narrow margin of around four percentage points five years ago. A similar outcome in which the two candidates would face each other in a high-contested second round was anticipated. Instead, the incumbent president's first-round victory has failed to convince civil society organisations, electoral observers, and the international community. This has sent a deeply alarming signal about the state of the country’s democracy, which without the lack of a universal consensus around electoral procedures severely erodes its legitimacy. In Mali and the DRC, the respective governments are struggling with conducting elections in areas dominated by rebel groups. The two fragile states are unable to fully control its borders, which has a damaging effect on the population’s access to democratic procedures.